It was a tough year, during some weeks there was doubt there would be a new World Champion crowned this year but after months of indecision, the cancelling of the Martigny worlds and the following decision for a new course, this week we're in Imola to watch one of the year's most important races unfold. What have we got in store?
The Route
258 Kilometers on the roads of Emilia-Romagna, the beautiful hills around Imola will take in the World Championships and this route is worthy of any event of this level. After being a frequent presence in the Giro, the Autodromo Internazionale Enzo e Dino Ferrari is hosting the finish of this race in what is a hilly circuit, one that include over 4600 meters of elevation gain over the course of 9 laps, with each lap featuring two climbs that surely will decide the race. Let's take a better look at the 27.8Km circuit.
The circuit begins in some rolling roads, a small rise of 2.2Km at 3.2% on normal country roads, it will be in the final laps a big battle for positioning as the teams will be looking to leave their leaders well positioned for the final sequence of climbs.
Before Mazzolano we have this small section of descent, it will with no doubt stretch things out, it's no longer than 500 meters but they're quite steep with a couple of switchbacks in the beggining.
The Salita del Mazzolano is the first big climb of the circuit, 2.8Km at around 6% average but on several occasions it goes above it. It's not a consistent climb, the first Km is at an average of 9.6% and does go mostly above double digits. The final 1.3Km of this climb are much more shallow but after a sketchy descent and a steep punchy climb plenty will be suffocated, and this will allow the surviving rouleurs and opportunists look to get a gap based on tactical choice. It's located 20Km away from the finish line.
After the summit there is another short but fast descent into the little town of Riolo Terme. There's very little time to organize, there's big space that can be opened here and everyone will use it to gather themselves ahead of the final climb.
Which is the Cima Gallisterna. Distance and average gradient wise it's very similar to the previous, but the profile is nothing but the opposite. A small uphill leadout will leave the riders in a brutal 1.3Km that will constantly be above 10%, it's a narrow road straightforward, a pure anaerobic effort into the summit where there will still be some hundred meters that could see moves, brave moves if the opportunity arises. The summit is located 11.8Km from the finish.
The road then starts tilting down into the finish. It's first kilometers are in this same road, a narrow (risky) two-lane road, exposed with a lot of sketchy fast corners, this is the moment where an all-out attack will gain it's shape, where the daredevils can really put their bike skills to good use and where gaps will settle. If a group stops collaborating it's a good possibility that they will be caught and may never get a gap again, however if a rider or group of riders in front fully commit they can easily expand their lead in these roads.
The run-up to the Autodromo is a bit long but will quickly pass, it's around 8Km long, most in a slight descent but with some flat sections involved, the beggining is a bit technical but then it smoothens out and becomes a road where the chase can reorganize well.
And then the entrance in the race track comes with 3.2Km to go. Although it still has a favourably descending profile it does feature a sligh uphill section which could be a springboard for a final attack, or a stretch of road where any desperate chasers will try their last chance to connect with the front of the race. It flattens out in the last hundred meters where the road is straight and open and where we'll have the new world champion crowned after over 6 hours of racing.
The Weather
The forecast has been changing a lot during these last few days. Lately it's been of a big amount of rain during the finale of the race however at the moment of posting that forecast of rain has gone easier. It's still expected and the weather on the day will tell, however what is certain is that the wind will take an important role, it will be a strong wind from the northeast which means a direct tailwind in the first kilometers of the circuit including the first big climb, and then a block headwind for most of the descent that will lead-up to the track.
Professional Insight
Today I present a special interview with none other than the upcoming British talent Tom Pidcock. Despite just being 21 Tom is one of the biggest names in the Cyclocross scene having had several titles to his name, in the 2018-2019 season he acomplished the incredible achievement of winning the Under-23 World, European and National championships all at once, whilst still managing to win the World Cup in his category. Last season he impressed in the Elite category on several occasions and he finished runner-up in the Dubendorf worlds.
However despite his massive talent off-road, on the road he's been just as impressive in the Under-23 rankings taking wins in Paris-Roubaix and the Tour Alsace, most recently he has dominated the U-23 Giro taking 3 stage wins in the Alps and confortably conquering the overall. So what are his expectations for the weekend?
Echelons: How was your preparation up to the race? Your Giro performance was nothing but incredible, do you think you can translate those results into the Worlds?
Tom: It has been a long and strange year now. I have done a lot of training and not so much racing so it’s different to normal. I think I will still be in very good shape.
E: With names like Hugh Carthy and James Knox alongside you in the team, do you think you’re ready to lead such a big race?
T: I’ve never ridden in such a good team before. So this is my best opportunity yet to gain experience at a race. I think it is a unique situation and we will only know after the race...
E: It will be a really long and brutal day in the saddle, is this something that could benefit you or do the opposite?
T: It will be the longest I have ever ridden. So honestly I don’t know.
E: Finally, what do you think of the route? It’s a really punchy and technical circuit at times, what are your thoughts on how the race will be won?
T: Yes it will be a very attritional race and certainly suites the punchy riders and ones who at good at races like Liège.
The Favourites
Will it fall for the climbers?
So let's start off with the riders that would've been the undoubted favourites in Martigny. The route has changed, it's still brutally hard but somewhat easier on the puncheurs, but with lots of explosive climbers nowadays taking the lead of the races this is a guarranteed winning list, with riders and teams that will for sure try to make the race hard from early on to wear out the more explosive riders. Jakob Fuglsang is leading Denmark the defending champions, the harsh weather will favour this team as we've seen last year and Fuglsang is a rider that likes this, the team will have decent support, the team is full of talent but may struggle with the top climbers making moves. He's the only big climber that's going into the Giro instead of coming from the Tour (although there's some that will do both), from the Tour you have 5 Jumbo riders, right now I point out 3 that will lead their respective teams in Tom Dumoulin who's coming with a big Netherlands team behind his back, representing USA there's Sepp Kuss who had a scary strong Tour, this isn't the most suiting race for him but you can't count him out and finally George Bennett, he seems to have had his peak before and in the beggining of the Tour, however this is a brilliant circuit for him, he's finished runner-up in Lombardia that proves his worth in the mountainous classics. Coming from the Tour also is Richard Carapaz, leading his small Ecuador team, he didn't look like his best at the Tour but still very strong, he'll like the amount of climbing and still packs a good punch.
And of course we're talking Tour legs, having Primoz Roglic and Tadej Pogacar will set some fear into the peloton as they both have no apparent weak spots, plus Pogacar loves the rainy weather but my guess is that he'll be attacking early on and trying to help Roglic take this win after he broke his heart in the Vosges. Although they're only two strong riders they match the depth of the strongest teams, which can be considered Spain coming in with a formidable squad including past WC Alejandro Valverde, two riders who shone in the Tour Enric Mas and Mikel Landa and an incredible sense of depth in riders like De la Cruz, Bilbao and Soler who are in great form. Sure they may not have a perfect rider for this race (assuming Valverde isn't back to his career best), but they have such a strong team that they will surely ignite it from far and have some good chances of repeating their 2018 success. The other Spanish-speaking team, Colombia, is coming with a similar team blooming in climber quality, Miguel Angel Lopez should in theory be the leader but in a shared position of course, Higuita is back from his Tour crash whilst Dani Martinez and Rigoberto Uran could be luxury domestiques or third-cards in the tough circuit.
The Puncheurs can survive!
They can, despite a brutal route the climbs are fairly short and doing them in repetition is something that some of these riders excel in. In peak form some would be the main favourites, Julian Alaphilippe being the representitive of course. Although he isn't doing bad at all his last two weeks in the Tour he never looked his best, could be fatigue and if he recovered in the meantime he's in a luxury position honestly, he climbs really well and the explosivity of the circuit suits him, he has Guillaume Martin and a team of strong climbers backing him up. In the field of the most explosive riders that pack a strong sprint consider firstly Marc Hirschi, coming from an explosive Tour where he was a big revelation, he finished on the podium of San Sebastian last year and was U23 World Champion in Innsbruck, he can climb, descend and also packs a strong sprint. Michael Matthews is a joker, one would say this is too hard for him but he has done some amazing racing in the past in races including Liège and Fleche, he looks in good form and has a big team that can support him, Richie Porte is also in the team after being back in peak form, it's not exactly a race that suits him but if he manages to stay upright until the decisive moments he could be an important piece in the climbs. Tom Pidcock is also a big wildcard, coming in from an incredible hattrick of wins in mountainous stages in the U23 Giro and the overall win, he is fairly new in this kind of peloton but in the Europeans he showed incredible legs and it seems he's only getting better, he's got that CX-induced resistance to rain and technique and has all the qualities for this kind of route, if he can handle the distance well. Also Max Schachmann can be able to do something, not a strong pure sprinter but he does well, he didn't seem his absolute best in the Tour but he's an incredible puncheur that can climb very well.
As for the "slower" puncheurs there still is a big part to be played. Being lightweight and not the best of technical riders it could cost, but Michael Woods is just so damn strong that he's worthy of a main favourite rating, his showing in Tirreno was evidence of his form and he is exceptional in races with steep climbs, these aren't brutally steep but he will be a fan nonetheless. Alexey Lutsenko is the opposite of lightweight but he's an incredible rider, he can play a part as he is also a locomotive that can climb with the best easily in this kind of route, doesn't pack a big sprint but he is a wildcard to consider. The Italians then, of course, would be praying for a Nibali in peak form who'd LOVE this rain and harsh circuit, unfortunately he doesn't look to be quite there yet but he will be of good use, a wildcard in support of a strong team with the likes of a flying Damiano Caruso, Gianluca Brambilla and Fausto Masnada, Alberto Bettiol and Andrea Bagioli aren't names you'd firstly consider but they can thrive as teammates and attackers before the decisive moves, and the leader should in theory be Diego Ulissi who's coming from a dominant win in the Tour of Luxembourg, it wasn't the strongest of startlists but he's definetely coming in with a lot of confidence!
Can the weather define the race?
And this is something very very important. Last year it was obvious, this year though legs on the climbs will be the most important factor. However all the rain and all the wind can really turn this into a very different race than expected. In 2013 you had the brutal Firenze worlds being won by Rui Costa. That's a level that although really high, it's not unreachable by the Portuguese, he's a lover of rainy races, long distances and rolling profiles. He may struggle a bit with the gradients but he can surely be there as will Michal Kwiatkowski, winner of Ponferrada 2014. His recent win in the Tour has shown how strong he currently is, his form is in the level of that mythical win and not only is he a strong explosive puncheur, he can climb super well, has a good sprint and descends very well, and of course he's also a classics specialists who loves a race like this.
Finally, they'll have their Worlds next year but this year Belgium can pull a big surprise. Think of it, Greg van Avermaet was the Olympic champion in a climber's route in Rio, when the weather is rough and the distance is huge some outsiders pop in and that makes one-day races really exciting. GVA himself is a good name for tomorrow, it's true that the route is hard for him but wasn't Rio aswel? But remember, they're Belgians, most are hard classics men they love the distance and pure rain and trashy conditions, Wout van Aert is coming in as a big favourite after the unmeasurable Tour he's had and could really be the one to take this it makes perfect sense in my head, however he'll need to resist the attacks of everyone and be at the right place at the right time. Riders like Stuyven and Naesen can help and also play a tactical role in the race, Loic Vliegen, Pieter Serry and Tiesj Benoot are all very interesting riders who can definetely pop in the Top10 and not be a surprise to me, although obviously it will take a great day, and finally there's Tim Wellens who is my final name to mention but with good reason, he hasn't looked like his best after an injury prevented him from being at the Tour, but his abilities and confidence riding in the rain just cannot be ignored by anyone.
Prediction Time
⭐ Woods, Valverde, Wellens, R.Costa, Matthews, Schachmann, Ulissi
I've decided. It's a race that can go so many ways, the headwind in the descent to the line means that even if a hard race takes place there should be a solid regrouping not far from the finish. The climbs will be vital however the decisive move may not be made there, but if it is Roglic has the form to do this. He's got brilliant form, he climbs unquestionably well but also is a specialist in this kind of climb, brilliant time-trialist and also has a very good sprint, and last year he took the step taking his Vuelta form to win Tre Valli Varesine and Giro dell' Emilia which is in this exact area and on a similar circuit. He's got Pogacar who I am sure will help him achieve this, the duo is incredibly dangerous and love the rain, and with what they showed in the Tour, I think we're in for another one!
Teams
Australia - Clarke, Matthews, Durbridge, Hamilton, Hindley, Howson, Porte, Schultz
Austria - Bayer, Gall, Pernsteiner, Postleberger, Schonberger, Wildauer
Azerbaijan - Asadov
Belarus - Riabushenko
Belgium - Benoot, O.Naesen, Serry, Stuyven, WV.Aert, GV.Avermaet, Vliegen, Wellens
Canada - Woods, Boivin, Cataford, Houle
Colombia - Chaves, Higuita, MA.Lopez, Ser.Henao, Martinez, N.Quintana, Tejada, Uran
Costa Rica - Rivera
Czech Republic - Cerny, Hirt, Otruba, Toupalik
Denmark - Fuglsang, Eg, Gregaard, Hansen, Honoré, Valgren, Juul-Jensen, C.Pedersen
Eritrea - Kudus, Berhane, Ghebreigzabhier
Estonia - Kangert, Pruus
Ecuador - Carapaz, Caicedo, Cepeda
France - Alaphilippe, Bernard, Elissonde, Madouas, G.Martin, Molard, Pacher, Peters
Germany - Schachmann, Arndt, Degenkolb, Denz, Geshcke, Martens, Zimmermann
Great Britain - Pidcock, Carthy, Knowx, Holmes, Rowe, Shaw
Greece - P.Tzortzakis
Hungary - Valter
Ireland - Roche, Mullen, Healy
Italy - Ulissi, V.Nibali, Bagioli, Bettiol, Brambilla, Caruso, Masnada, Visconti
Japan - Arashiro
Kazakhstan - Lutsenko, Bizhigitov, Fominykh, Gruzdev, Natarov, Pronskiy
Latvia - Neilands, Skujins, Luksevics
Lithuania - Siskevicius
Luxembourg - Gastauer
Mexico - Castillo
Morocco - Zahiri
Netherlands - Dumoulin, Eenkhoorn, Oomen, Tolhoek, Tusveld, van Baarle, Weening, van der Lijke
New Zealand - G.Bennett, Bevin, Smith, Fisher-Black
Norway - Eiking, CF.Hagen, M.Hoelgaard, Jansen, Laengen, Leknessund
Poland - Kwiatkowski, Golas, Paterski, Aniolkowski, Malecki, Owsian
Portugal - R.Costa, Guerreiro, I.Oliveira, N.Oliveira
Romania - Grosu
Russia - Chernetski, Kuznetsov, Nekrasov, Rikunov, Rovny, Strakhov
Rwanda - Mugisha
Slovakia - Bellan, Canecky, Cully, Haring, Tybor
Slovenia - Roglic, Pogacar, Brajkovic, Mezgec, Novak, Pibernik, Polanc, Tratnik
South Africa - Meintjes, Dlamini
Spain - Valverde, Mas, Soler, Landa, Bilbao, LL.Sanchez, de la Cruz, Je.Herrada
Sweden - L.Eriksson
Switzerland - Hirschi, Albasini, Dillier, Gasparotto, Pellaud, Schar
Ukraine - Budyak
United States - Kuss, Craddock, McNulty, Powless
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