How long it has been... Primoz Roglic has won 3 Vuelta's since the last time this race has taken place, to have a good notion of the time, and the defending champion is a Philippe Gilbert on the twilight of his brilliant career. After being cancelled and postponed the Hell of the North is back, and it's gruelling!
The Route
Like it's been for several years, the route will go through a massive 257.5 kilometers, starting in Compiègne heading north, where the first cobbled sectors will be encountered with just under 100 kilometers of racing, which will make for around 2 hours of racing to settle and establish a breakaway. Also, as it's been the case for some years, the breakaway should be highly contested, which can make for a furiously fast start. The teams controlling should keep a tight leash on who can go free from the pack or not. And most teams will try to have riders in front for strategical purposes later, specially with the weather conditions that will be taking place.
And this should be a sight most riders recognize very well. Some will be relieved pleased to go through it, some won't be very happy with it. The Troisville sector, the first of 29 comes with a little over 95 kilometers of racing, it's 2.2Km long, but the initial combination of sectors last year caused some damage in the peloton quite early on. This is the place where the true race starts, some may say.
Several cobbled sectors will follow, the 4-star ones include Quiévy to Saint-Python (3700 meters, 141Km to go) and Haveluy to Wallers (2500 meters, 101Km to go), this one will come right before the most iconic sector of the race.
Everyone who loves cycling knows it, the Trouée d'Arenberg is "only" 2300 meters but is famed with one of the most traditional view in modern cycling. The full sector is in a straight line but is one that demands technical expertize. Line choice is crucial as the cobblestones in it are of an immense brutality. Adding the huge speed the riders will enter the sector it'll make for maybe the most tense moment of the race, the lead-out to Arenberg sees truly remarcable fights, it starts slightly downhill and turns into slightly uphill, making for a really hard sector to make any acceleration, it's a case of keeping the power up for the entire run. It comes with 93.5Km to go.
Hornaing to Wandignies is 3700 meters long and is the next 4-star sector with 78Km to go, then there's Tilloy to Sars-et-Rosières which is 2400 meters long and comes with 68.5Km to go. And with 50.5Km to go there's the Auchy to Bersée sector and it's 2700 meters in lenght, which set the riders up for the following sector.
Obviously, the Mons-en-Pévèle sector, it's 3Km long and finishes with 45Km to go, it will be the second 5-star sector of the race and comes in a crucial time where the decisive attacks are to come.
The final combination of sectors where it's likely to see differences being made is the Camphin-en-Pévèle and Carrefour de l'Abre. They are 4 and 5-star sectors respectively, feature 1800 and 2100 meters in distance and come with 17Km and 14Km to go.
They aren't the final sectors, but with such a brutal race to that point and a very short distance to the finale, it's the ideal place to make a move for everyone who has the legs, the Carrefour de l'Abre sector is one of great technical demand, and need of several accelarations, which is something not all riders will be capable of at that point of the race.
There's still the Willems to Hem sector with 6Km to go, a 3-star sector that's been recently introduced into the race, but it's not usual to see gaps being made there, but who knows, with a group it can happen. The final kilometers will be well known, the entrance in Roubaix in flat roads, in case of a group coming into town it's likely to see some attemps of surprising in it, which will lead to the velodrome, the race's symbol almost, where a deserving winner will emerge from a brutal race.
The Weather
Rough rough rough. As you must be aware the debate on a rainy Roubaix has been a hot topic for some weeks (if I'm being nice), and it's actually a complicated answer. The rain is set to be very strong overnight but it will stop as the day moves on. It's impossible to know exactly when but it's possible that the riders will elude the rain (although unlikely), it's also quite possible to begin under intense rain, but whatever happens the road conditions are the important factor here and yes, the cobbled sectors will be slippery, everything in fact will be slippery, a perfect balance of risk and being conservative is required, and crashes are to be expected, specially taking into account how brutal the women's race was today, there is a whole lot of mud in some sectors.
As for the wind it starts of as a moderate/high intensity wind from the west which will see crosswinds early in the day and it will change to northwest throughout the afternoon, essentially making it a whole day in cross/tailwind conditions. This set of conditions is perfect for the heavyweight riders, in all scenarios.
It will be physical
Yes I'm making it clear here that it'll be a race that'll, more than most years, be suited to the riders that carry those big kgs on the bike. For a starters they're already favoured here as they suffer less from the vibrations in relation to the lighter riders but that's the case in all cobbled races, but what sets the difference here is that the weather will be bad, and the thought of starting a gruesome 6-hour race under pouring rain (which is, I repeat, very possible) is going to be psychologically devastating for many. Those who love the rain though, or don't mind it, will have a big advantage here.
Then there's the wind situation. Despite the rainy roads expect a super high average speed here, the average usually revolves around 43Km/h but I believe it'll be higher with the favourable wind and also because of what I'm sure will happen, which will be firstly an intense fight to be in a break (yes the Matt Hayman scenario applies) but also because the decisive attacks may come very early.
Experience in Roubaix is crucial, being ahead of the peloton means the riders avoid the intense fight for positioning that'll take place in every sector. That, adding to favourable wind mean that attacking early may pay off big time. Additionally, in 2021 I've been seeing a scenario very frequently that has decided many big races. Using team depth not to attack massively, but for a rider to attack and teammates to cover every move and the "crazy" early move succeeds. More than ever this has been used this year, some teams have these tactics dialed really well, expect this to happen, my hunch would be at the latest, this will start being crucial right after Arenberg.
Technically it'll also be a brutal race, some sectors will be vicious, some riders won't have it in them, some will. Specially in the sectors with corners gaps can come out of how the riders can simply corner. Riders with CX/MTB experience obviously should be more used to it, but there are some pure roadies who've got it dialed aswell.
The Favourites
Deceuninck - Experience and quality combined like no other team. No surprise in their block, they will be the team most likely to win with the cards they have to play, you have Florian Senechal who has slowly came to term with his qualities and as a home rider, in top form and hungry for a big win, he will be one of 4 big victory candidates, followed by Ronde winner Kasper Asgreen who's said to be recovered from the world championships and some minor health issues, Zdenek Stybar who's also looking brilliant and should love the technical aspect that the riders will face, and finally Yves Lampaert who has also taken some great form during September. Likely to be the most agressive team, it won't be easy to deal with them.
Wout van Aert - His world's performance may do him a favour here, as on paper he is the most suited rider for the race but I feel like the pressure won't be put on him. He'll never have total freedom, but on these conditions he should thrive and he definitely has the form to attack on the brutal cobbled sectors, if he doesn't have another swarm of punctures he is a massive favourite, as reliable as any other in the peloton.
Mathieu van der Poel - His form is good but he's said to be lacking that little kick that usually sees him go for crazy moves. That doesn't mean he's not a favourite, he does seem to have managed his back issues and the technique that'll be needed for the cobbled sectors should be great news for his chances. So he has the chance, under normal conditions I wouldn't rate him that high, without gradients on the road he'll struggle to set differences, and he lacks any Roubaix experience. With Jasper Philipsen and Tim Merlier carrying a strong sprint and, the latter specially, usually quite strong on flat classics, the team has some good underated cards.
Dylan van Baarle - Probably the most underated rider I reckon, van Baarle has shown several times this season how much of a threat he is, winning Dwaars door Vlaanderen and being a constant in the spring classics, only suffering from what can be called a not-World-Class classics team supporting him. Nevertheless he seems to always have freedom, like in his recent world championships silver performance where he looked in top form again. He's got a massive engine and in any kind of move he's dangerous, cannot be given room.
Nils Politt & Peter Sagan - Nils Politt was second in his last Roubaix, it's uncertain how he'll do in these conditions but I would say the signs are good, the German has shown good form recently and is quite an underated rider for the classics, a massive powerhouse with a good sprint, but the reason why I'm ranking them so high is because Peter Sagan is taking a good position this year, coming in with good form but above all there's no road rider who's better on a bike than the Slovakian, the muddy sectors, the fight for positioning, the experience, they are all perfect for him, and as the pressure should be on the likes of Deceuninck, van Aert and van der Poel, Sagan can get a green card this year under the right circumstances.
Jasper Stuyven & Mads Pedersen - Coming straight from the wings of Fabian Cancellara, Jasper Stuyven got his knowledge from the best, and became one of the best classics riders of his generation. Nevertheless he hasn't yet been able to win Flandres or Roubaix, but he has another decent chance tomorrow, bringing in brilliant form from Leuven and having a very well rounded team with Mads Pedersen who is also a major fan of rainy conditions.
AG2R - Experience on their side, unfortunately not results. I don't think Greg van Avermaet will be a big fan of the rain, no idea on Oli Naesen, but they will hope that their big block of classics riders can pull something off here, they got a podium in Flandres so if they could replicate it'd be great.
EF - A team that I don't think will have a certain leader. Michael Valgren is coming in with great form, Flandres suits him better though, without the climbing he'll be a bit behind the competition which is added by his lack of experience in the front rows of this race, however he's got an experienced team, despite Bettiol's absence and Langeveld's lack of results this season. The team can maybe rely on some outiders like Stefan Bissegger and Jonas Rutsch who should be quite happy with the conditions.
Bahrain - The success team of the year, they are on a massive fly but like EF it isn't the race that suits them best. Colbrelli and Mohoric combined have only 1 presence in this race which is far from ideal, however the Italian loves the rain, and the Slovenian is a great bike handler, I wouldn't be surprised to see them neither fight for the win or not be an important factor in the race. I'd expect a strong performance by Heinrich Haussler, clearly targeting this race, and with some great technical capacity.
UAE - Alexander Kristoff is perhaps the ultimate wildcard. A lover of rain and long classics, he's coming in for his 11th presence and with no climbs, a diesel like him can thrive in the chaos. Matteo Trentin can also surprise I guess, although he's not the classics riders that he used to be, Mikkel Bjerg and Rui Oliveira can be surprising in this terrain.
Anthony Turgis - He's become a face of consistency in the classics. With a very experienced team backing him, including some locomotives who'll love the gruesome aspect of it, the Frenchman has another chance to hit the big league, he's still underated enough to get very dangerous freedom.
Stefan Kung - Rain, flat roads, Kung will have a good chance to turn his time-trialing abilities into a massive result in the classics, he won't have a much better chance than this.
Sep Vanmarcke - He will puncture and/or crash. But can he limit them enough to fight for a result?
Taco van der Hoorn - One of the biggest wildcards, he never seemed to fit in much in Jumbo but now that he's back in a team that gives him leadership and freedom he has been flying, had a great year with several wins and a brilliant performance in Antwerp matching van der Poel. He's another big engine, perfect for gritty wet races, can definitely mingle with the best in the world.
Qhubeka - Again under the assumption that the team is about to end I wouldn't expect much collective racing, as the race for the contracts seem to be more important at this time. Campenaerts has done brilliant this season but I doubt he'll thrive due to his smaller statute in the rough cobbles, you find the opposite though on Max Walscheid, another rider in brilliant form and he of all riders in the team should love the gruesome conditions, and can really do something big taking into account how much power he's been putting out. Dimitri Claeys comes in as the resident classics specialist who can always surprise, and Giacomo Nizzolo in great form also comes is as a bit of a wildcard, but he has a past of performing well on the cobbles...
Prediction Time
⭐ M.Pedersen, Lampaert, Politt, Kristoff, Turgis, Merlier, Naesen, GV.Avermaet, Valgren, Mohoric, Vanmarcke, Van der Hoorn
It's hard to guess. As many have said, you cannot predict this race, you just can't, it'll be absolutely chaotic. Within the confusion I must make a choice though, Zdenek Stybar is mine, within the best team here, he has experience form and technical ability perfected, besides it would be totally deserved as he actually hasn't ever won a monument.
Make sure to let me in on your opinion, and of course follow me on twitter for the latest updates!
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