Autumn is setting in, the race of the fallen leaves is upon us and it wraps up the World Tour calendar of another crazy year. Tipically a race for the climbers, this years will be no exception, an exceptional startlist and a very open route will make for a proper finale to the final monument of the season.
The Route
Over 4600 meters of climbing throughout some long 239 kilometers. It's a tough tough race, and proving it's point as the most flexible monument as it brings in a completely different route this year compared to the classic, reversing the roles as Como takes up the start of the race, and the beautiful city of Bergamo receives the finale for the first time since 2016. The route starts off and goes through the Madonna del Ghisallo early on but it won't have a meaningful role this year, not climbing through it's traditional side.
The real race starts a couple of hours in. They won't be decisive but the fatigue will start to be felt with these two ascents coming in quick succession, they will summit with 135 and 111 kilometers to go respectively.
The attacking side of the race should start around here though. The climb to Dossena will open things up, it summits with 77Km to go, isn't overly steep but is long and doesn't have a descent right after. Following this year's trend it's likely to see moves coming over the top of this climb, as teams will be looking to place riders in front and force a chase for the rivals. They can be dangerous, there will be a plateau before the hilltop at Zambia Alta which summits with 64Km to go and antecedes a very technical descent. Safe to say there's a lot of potential for the race to break apart, specially for those who aren't so confident in their descending ability.
That's because the main climb of the day doesn't really offer space to surprise. Slow ramp up, the Passo Di Ganda is a hard ascent, it steepens towards the summit so likely we'll have a very explosive showdown in it's final 2 kilometers, it summits with 32Km to the finish, a very reduced selection should be made up to this point as it's where the main attacks will come, but there's still a lot of racing to do.
Another very technical descent from Ganda will drop the riders in the valley that leads to Bergamo where there will be around 10 kilometers to reorganize everything and those who need to put on a chase. Interesting dynamics may be played out here, in the final 5 kilometers it will be again an attacked race surely. Hard to imagine gaps coming out of the Bergamo Alta ascent as it's tiny compared to what the riders have faced so far, but it's always possible. It's a very scenic finale, the riders will drop back down into the city center in for the final sprint, or a glorious solo celebration.
The Weather
Fall weather, nothing really to note besides the possibility of some foggy weather, ideal for early attackers as they can more easily disapear from sight in the winding roads, a psychological advantage for escapees.
Tactics
The plot of the race will be regarding the Deceuninck vs Jumbo vs UAE. Looking at the startlist there are a couple more teams with some good quality and depth but these will be looking to attack and cancel each others' attacks as soon as they come, and specially when it comes to an inevitable Evenepoel attack those teams should have designated riders to cover that move.
I expect them to come after Dossena. Winding roads, false-flat, it's the perfect ground to gain time. Realistically in a normal day no-one can beat Roglic here, sorry to be rather unexciting but it's true. Pogacar, Almeida and Yates have been the strongest rivals in these Autumn classics, they will be marked. Everyone else, the other Jumbo riders will be covering. Effectively, teams have to play their secondary cards early to avoid direct clash with Roglic, it's essentially their only chance to win, I wouldn't be surprised to see Pogacar or Almeida setting up attacks from teammates.
The Favourites
Primoz Roglic - The man to beat. He's been virtually unbeatable all year long, winning everything that his skillset was adequate to. After winning the Vuelta, Emilia and Milano-Torino all in domination there's little that can be said, a rider that has no flaws and seems superior in both climbing and sprinting in relation to every other climber. Having the likes of Jonas Vingegaard, Steven Kruijswijk and George Bennett to cover moves (or work), it won't be easy to interfere with the killer bees.
Adam Yates - Having Pavel Sivakov and Gianni Moscon as riders who can attack early the British team should have that as their main strategy, however Adam Yates has been looking brilliant, a climb like Civiglio is perfect for a pure climber like him, he won't have an ascent like that this year unfortunately for his chances, he absolutely depends on going solo after Ganda to have a chance to win.
UAE - Tadej Pogacar has got us used to dominating performances, however this past week he's been looking on a little notch below (which is fresh to be honest). What matter is tomorrow though, if there's anyone who can climb and sprint like Roglic it's Pogacar. The team also has Diego Ulissi in great form, a combination of Rafal Majka, Brandon McNulty, Marc Hirschi and Davide Formolo should be able to attack the race quite hard and they should definitely do it.
Deceuninck - Lots of strategies can be applied here. On paper João Almeida is their best card but he's also the one who will with no doubt be the one covered by the main men. Remco Evenepoel won't likely enjoy the descents much, but he has terrain where he can attack outside of the main climbs, he's in great form too so there's definitely room to attack there. Then you have Julian Alaphilippe, his form is unsure, but he's just turned world champion so it's really not a rider who you can ignore despite his apparent crack in Superga. The race isn't very well suited to him, but there are some very technical descents and a puncheur-oriented finale, so if it blocks or he's in a great position he can be a big threat to everyone around. Furthermore with Fausto Masnada, Dries Devenyns, Andrea Bagioli and Pieter Serry completing the team there is basically no weak link, the Italian specially should be very dangerous aswell as he's got a big engine.
Michael Woods & Dan Martin - They need the element of surprise to win, safe to say. Both look in good form, but both love the more explosive steeper climbs of which there are none this year, nevertheless they don't seem like they'll be covered and they can use that to their advantage.
David Gaudu & Thibaut Pinot - Both have came from a more secondary calendar as a build up for Lombardia, Gaudu took a win in Luxembourg and has looked strong in Italy aswell, the route isn't as good for him this year but he's always a good candidate when it comes to a race like this, and having an in-form Thibaut Pinot back besides him should be of good help to the team's chances.
Vincenzo Nibali & Bauke Mollema - Both past winners of the race, experience is important and you will struggle to find two more knowledgable riders in the craft of racing in Lombardia. They are both fans of attacking early, Mollema hasn't looked super sharp but his skillset is very adequate to the scenario I've been talking about, and his Tour win shows how even alone he can fly off and never again be seen, as for Vincenzo Nibali I don't want to feed the hype but I'm really happy to see the win he took in Sicily, it meant a lot and he's showing competitive form. With the form, exceptionally technical descents and in his training region, he will know exactly what to do here.
Alejandro Valverde - The issue is that even at his best he's not capable of beating the likes of Pogacar or Roglic in a sprint, which makes his skillset essentially impossible to win now as that has always been his strong point. All he can do is hope to resist the climbs and then count on his sprint for a strong result, attacking really won't work here.
Furthermore some names could pop up and be in the battle for the top places, remember it's a one-day race so the only thing that matters is how you perform in this specific event. Some of these riders haven't had the best form, others are in good form but lack that natural ability to win within the very best, however all must be considered, as a mountainous classic the depth of climbers is absolutely wonderful here: Simon Yates, Sergio Higuita/Ruben Guerreiro, Romain Bardet/Michael Storer, Alexander Vlasov/Alexey Lutsenko, Nairo Quintana, Mikel Landa/Jack Haig, Emanuel Buchmann, Lorenzo Fortunato, Guillaume Martin, Rein Taaramae, Harm Vanhoucke, to name the headliners.
Also never discard young uprising talent Jakub Mareczko...
Prediction Time
⭐ Valverde, Vingegaard, Moscon, Alaphilippe, Masnada, Woods, D.Martin, Gaudu, V.Nibali
I think the race will be heavily attacked, but Jumbo will get riders in the moves and someone will take the race back into control, in Ganda Roglic will be able to control everything and/or split the group up, control everything and take a sprint win.
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