The worlds, at last. It's been a very long season, I feel it quite a lot myself, but that by no means is a sign that the race is less exciting than early in the year, one of the highlights of the year comes this weekend as the rainbow stripes will be given to, likely, a new face and there will be a brilliant and very open route set to decide it.
The Route
Like a true classic. 267.5 kilometers mean around or at least 6 hours of racing, suited to the classics riders, the one-day specialists maybe, as the peloton will tackle a route without any major climb but with splattered with dozens of small bergs in Flandres. All the aspects of Flandrien racing will be involved, with steep explosive climbs all across the race, cobblestones, narrow roads, exposed ones and an overall very open route that not only sees plenty riders dreaming of a win, they're also spread across several specialities.
The riders will make the race, but nonetheless I can point out that it features around 2250 meters of climbing and it features 2 main circuits, one inside the city of Leuven where the race finishes and should be decided, features 4 small ramps across the 15.5Km long circuit, which starts with a quite dangerous urban section. There is no 1 decisive point to this circuit, attacks can come anywhere, and with good collaboration they will be very hard to bring back, it's ideal for early attacks.
The second circuit doesn't match with the finale, it is ridden around Overijse which sees the Brabantse Pijl's roads in display, the sequence of ascents here is harder, features some rough roads and as we've seen in these last few events, the risks of crashing are real and so positioning will be massively important into the entrance of this sequence on both occasions. This one has it's final berg with 48.5Km to go, before around 15Km of flat roads where there will be some reorganization into the final 2 laps of the urban Leuven circuit. The finale, in case a group comes to the line will be in a small uphill sprint, not an easy one though, and after such a race you can absolutely expect surprises.
A brilliant route, spectacle should be a constant, and the crowds should be amazing throughout. If you want to know the route in perfect detail my advice is - if you haven't, which is unlikely - to look back at the Men's U23 and (after this is posted) the Women's Elite races, the riders will have all details of the circuit memorized surely as a spotless tactical game will be essential for a rider to have a chance for gold.
The Weather
Warm temperatures and essentially no chances of raining. The wind will be felt, moderately strong from southwest throughout the afternoon which is quite good for those looking to attack on the Overijse loop, as they will face a tailwind into Leuven. All these details will be known by the riders, and will make for a more open race. Within the final circuit the roads aren't exposed, but the final straight does feature a tailwind that will likely be felt, favouring sprints from more far-out.
What Will Belgium do?
This to me is the big point that's set to play out here. Remco Evenepoel has said he's all-in for Wout, and I do believe within the team I'd say Declercq and maybe Teuns will also be thinking the same. And maybe they will, I'd say those 3 riders can bury themselves for the chances of Van Aert to win, my understanding is on the backstage there have been some handshakes regarding responsabilities.
Now my issue with this is: I haven't heard the same from the likes of Stuyven, Benoot, Campenaerts, all of them look in terrific form. Lampaert had rage on his face in Britain when he won, and although he's said that he would "chase Alaphilippe if he had to" I don't think that will be before he gives it his own shot, Benoot seemed sharper than ever in Benelux and Campenaerts has never been riding so well on the road. They're all candidates for a win. They have not said they'll work for van Aert, and although that may happen at some point the issue is this:
That is NOT how you race classics, specially one like this!
Simple as that, even though van Aert is perhaps the most reliable rider I have ever seen, and is on terrific form, the idea of the Belgians pacing for 270 kilometers in order for all attacking groups to be caught in hopes of a sprint? Don't bullshit me, I've thought long and hard about it but it's simply not happening, specially these riders who are tactically astute, they will race as a team should on a hilly race when you have several options, you attack and/or cover all moves from early on, one will stick. No responsabilities to work, teammates can rest for the next attacks if they come, and attacker always has a solid chance to succeed. If they decide to let a group with Danes, French, Dutch and Italian riders go, or most of these teams, then they're putting themselves on a death trap, and they will be aware of it. And if at any point Wout has no teammates everyone will follow his wheel, no-one collaborates, so depending on a team is definitely not the way to go, even for him.
The Favourites
The Belgians - Everything is above essentially. Wout is the man to beat in this race, and in a cobbled classic that usually dictates doom. Belgium have to attack and put themselves in a position where they have a solo rider in front, or a very small group where they have the best sprinter, so that they can be in the wheels behind. If they solely work they'll loose. Wout's favourite status can be crucial for someone like Evenepoel or Lampaert to have little cover and take the opportunity, other teams should be very well aware of that possible bluff.
The Danes - One of the teams in form. With the unfortunate death of Chris Anker Sorensen, I expect the Danish national team to be riding with extra motivation to get that special win this week and this lineup will be no exception. There's a weird phenomenom where, possibly because they aren't from a "classic" country, the riders simply don't get the responsability or pressure that come with their quality, unlike riders from Belgium or Spain mostly. And with major weapons like Magnus Cort Nielsen, Kasper Asgreen and Michael Valgren, it is a certainty that Denmark will be attacking the race hard, their profile of rouleurs is perfect for sure a route. The team is overall very full and complete, but even if in case their agression doesn't work, the team has Mads Pedersen as a rider who usually loves the long distances and can go for a sprint if, like in the other categories, a somewhat sizeable group makes it to the line close to the win.
The French - The defending champion Julian Alaphilippe faces a tough race. Not being a powerhouse the route isn't as good for him, however the decisive moves in the juniors and U23 were made in an uphill explosive ramp, where he should be suited. What will he do? Unsure, but from France he'll be the marked man, meaning likely his best option should be to sit in the wheels and use his experience to save as much energy for a single attack on that climb, whilst giving a green card for riders like Benoit Cosnefroy, Florian Senechal and Christophe Laporte join attacks during the last few hours.
Mathieu van der Poel - Until recently it was unclear on wether he'd be in the race or not. Answer is now clear, his form isn't though, but in Antwerp he looked good enough to be a contender here. The hundreds of explosive efforts will be golden territory for the CX experts, van der Poel isn't a rider you can predict, he has the capacity to blow up the race at any point and change whole team dynamics. The Netherlands are a classic classics team, riders like Mike Teunissen, Danny van Poppel and Dylan van Baarle suit different scenarios but are all brilliant riders which provide them with plenty of favourable scenarios.
Sonny Colbrelli - He's had the season of his live and honestly he does not have the need to win this, he's already got two layers of special jerseys on his body, and his results have already been much more successful than his usual 2nd place chase. He's got the form though, in Trento he showed that in the best possible way. Italy is almost all built by riders who can be leaders, with Ballerini and Nizzolo as sprint possibilities, Trentin and Moscon experienced classics riders, Ulissi and Bagioli explosive and wildcard puncheurs. Too many cards, will it be good or bad to them? That's what will decide their results I guess.
Peter Sagan - He's not old news. In his peak, somehow Sagan managed to win 3 rainbow jerseys on a row, all in different ways. He's past it, however he's still a very good sprinter, super experienced classics rider and is carrying some good form, and I'll say it, unlike other years he actually looks a bit motivated. He no longer has the Sagan syndrom where everyone covers him like a blanket on a cold winter night, on a very technical route where positioning is crucial, where the climbs are short and explosive and after a brutal and long race, he's definitely a big rider to take into consideration, he doesn't have a great team but he has done the unthinkable without it already.
Ethan Hayter - A wildcard, he's a new face between the big champions but he absolutely has the quality. Endurance is not a guarrantee, but he will be the leader as Pidcock doesn't seem to have the form and no-one else in the team can realistically fight for a medal. He won't have the pressure and also won't be very covered, he has a massive engine, can climb quite well and also has a very strong sprint.
Matej Mohoric - He didn't look sharp in the Europeans, but if somehow he manages to keep the form he's shown all year long he's definitely a very very dangerous rider. A rouleur in it's purest form, Slovenia brings in 9 riders and has Tadej Pogacar and Primoz Roglic as possibilities aswell, but Mohoric is more suited for a race like this and is a terrifically smart rider, I've been hearing a lot of rumours that he knows each road in the circuits like the top of his top tube, that promises...
What if it comes down to a sprint?
Can it happen? Sure can, it's not a race for a sprint win I'd say, but as we've seen in other categories we have had group finishes taking home medals, and it's always a possibility, specially as the sprinters aren't the riders who'll be attacked here, it'll solely be van Aert essentially.
Classics-type sprinters like Alexander Kristoff and Mads Pedersen can do something brilliant here, the likes of Pascal Ackermann, Fernando Gaviria and who knows Caleb Ewan will likely be the headliners, normally they won't really be in position to win this race but they all have shown brilliant yet rare performances in the hills in the past, I remind you this isn't an overall hard route if you stick to the wheels religiously. If they manage to make the right splits, hang around the back and take advantage of the chasing work other national teams will have to do, they can perhaps survive and go onto getting a medal or something more at the finish, and alliances are quite frequent when it comes to that kind of situation.
Firestarters
The main men that must attacked are mentioned above but they aren't the only ones. Some teams will need to attack from far to be able to succeed and that could include the Swiss Stefan Kung and Marc Hirschi, Nils Politt, João Almeida, Ivan Cortina, Zdenek Stybar, for these kind of riders who are in great form and are brilliant individually, it'll all be about getting in the right move. Their best chances are to go early, form a cohesion and single out the strongest teams, all are quite dangerous.
Prediction Time
⭐ Asgreen, Mohoric, Hayter, Hirschi, Senechal, Trentin, Van Baarle, Lampaert, Stuyven, Kristoff, Politt
His way of helping Wout SHOULD be by attacking. He's got what it takes to do it already, the race will favour wild attacks and that suits Remco, he's showing brilliant form and Belgium have plenty cards to play with, it's very hard to chase on these roads so if he ever finds himself with no-one on the wheel it'll be almost game over for everyone else.
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