A very antecipated but anti-climatic day, the conditions were finally favourable for echelons but it didn't happen, ended up not being as strong as forecasted, ended up being a calm day in the peloton, still with a relatively tense finale but nothing disturbing a sprint, Deceuninck bossed the leadout and Fabio Jakobsen proved the strongest to take his second stage win.
Positive: Deceuninck and Jakobsen racking up more success.
Negative: Nothing to note.
The Route
The final stage in the opening week and a proper mountain stage, with around 4700 meters of climbing, Andalusia receives another big mountain stage, where all GC riders will be going over to their limit as they reach the first rest day. The day starts of flat though and not the best of a strong group of climbers to get in the breakaway, however the second half of the stage is quite brutal.
The Alto Collado Venta Luisa is the longest climb of the race, it's not steep but it does feature a 6.3Km section at 9% in that second half, lots of false-flat, just all kinds of terrain on this ascent, which finishes with 57.2 kilometers to go. It leads to a fast descent, somewhat technical, and throughout the next 3rd category climb and descent the roads are always somewhat wide, but very tricky, with the descents very fast and windy where splits can easily occur, these descents go almost all the way until the final climb.
The Alto de Velefique is the ascent. It's somewhat constant, not overly steep but rather long, it is more than enough to make differences specially at the end of such a hard day, but adding to that it's a climb with a total of 19 hairpins, can become quite explosive, with a lot of opportunities to make moves.
The Weather
Another hot day in the mountains, wind here will be mostly absent from the stage.
Breakaway winning chance: 35%
Not the greatest here, the flat and straightforward start is not at all favourable for a strong group of climbers to go ahead, and if a team wants they can absolutely prevent one from going. There is a good chance the break will take over an hour to form, and when there are small hilltops it will go. Anyhow it's a lot of ifs, and I would imagine Ineos and Movistar will be looking to attack Jumbo today, the climbs are long and the second half of the stage is very complicated.
To their advantage, I would imagine Jumbo still doesn't want the red jersey, however with each mountain stage there's always less and less riders capable of taking it from him out of a breakaway.
The Favourites
Primoz Roglic - Sits confortably and confidently in the lead. He hasn't taken a single bad step in this race and I don't expect him too. If it comes down to a GC day he's without a doubt the man to beat, and odds aren't favourable to his rivals.
Egan Bernal & Adam Yates - The team who has so far looked to attack the most. Bernal is making a psychological race, he hasn't looked very sharp yet but he hasn't at the same time had a bad day so far, and is well within reach of his rivals. He's looking to conserve and strike on the final week surely, whilst on the offensive side Richard Carapaz and mainly Adam Yates will take care of it. I think it's a team that is clearly on the rise and planning to do their thing in the Asturias.
Miguel Angel Lopez & Enric Mas - Both have looked quite strong so far, Spain is good territory for the duo and they still have a lot of mountains to cause chaos. I'd say Lopez will be more on the offensive whilst Mas, a less explosive climber, will be looking to cover Roglic and Bernal and try to stay in this very strong overall spot at the moment.
Outsiders - The Vuelta is always an exciting race and you've got several names profiting from that specific focus in this Grand Tour. Several riders have shown really strong legs so far, not always consistent, but I would expect the likes of Alexander Vlasov and David De la Cruz to do really well today as the climbs suit them quite well, you have Giulio Ciccone who I believe isn't faring well with the heat so is looking like another day of survival to stay in the fight for a strong GC, you have always Bahrain who have been quite disapointing so far but always have to be taken into account, Jack Haig is sitting strong in GC after a successful breakaway but I'm unsure if he has the form, he should be Bahrain's best choice though, although Mikel Landa and Gino Mader mainly will be eyeing a strong stage and likely a big climb in their current GC spots.
Furthermore you have the likes of Louis Meintjes and Fabio Aru who have both positively surprised recently and seem to, in their best day, still have their legs of old (Aru a bit below but you understood), and you never know if the strong GC can motivate someone like Felix Grossschartner who currently sits second.
Breakaway Possibilities - It won't be easy for the climbers to be there tomorrow that is for sure, but there will be plenty of KOM points available and also with Jumbo's mentality, if some climbers manage to get in the front group they have a good chance of succeeding. Wout Poels and Mark Padun will be good cards to bet on if they get there, AG2R have to try and get in with some riders too, Geoffrey Bouchard being their best option, I suspect Astana will keep trying, the Izagirre brothers being their best cards, Oscar Cabedo is looking to surprise and has seemed to have the legs to do so so far, Cofidis have Jesus Herrada and Guillaume Martin who should be focusing on stages like this that suit them, Deceuninck have Mauri Vansevenant and Andrea Bagioli, who aren't doing a consistent race but in their best they can absolutely win this, Rudy Molard, Odd Christian Eiking and Rein Taaramae, Juan Pedro Lopez, Harm Vanhoucke, Lucas Hamilton and the DSM entourage, Romain Bardet mainly, are good cards for such a stage, but they all need support from the team to be able to get in front if it goes early.
Inside the Bus
This morning I talk to...
#156 Guy Niv - Not much you can do really Guy, our sprinters haven't done anything so far, our climbers haven't shown themselves, I really don't think there's anything we can do today, honest opinion would be just all you guys stay in the pack and slide back to the grupetto when it forms, save energy to next week as lots of breakaways will be winning there and we have better chances of succeeding.
#227 Jan Polanc - Brilliant race so far Jan, under the spotlight but staying in 5th, this race is clearly favourable for breakaways and what you'll do is this. Think ahead already, next week you'll be on the attack again and make the effort to gain some more time back on the GC, you have nothing to loose you have total freedom, so today it's about trying to stay as close as possible, as the red jersey is still possible believe me, Jumbo really don't want to lead the race and they're willing to let a lot of guys like you swarm in. Now, David is the priority, he's flying, but you don't have to worry about that as we won't be doing any work, Rafal will likely stay with you too, you make sure you do everything you can to stay in the peloton until the final climb even if it's attacked, if you do, there just pace it out, try to always have company as slipstreaming will still benefit here, you're having a brilliant chance to show off your quality and I expect you to keep seizing it.
#97 Bert van Lerberghe - Stay with Fabio, you and Florian stay with him all the way, you guys will likely be dropped early in the 1st category climb so from there on it's just about keeping it safe and making it inside the time limit.
Prediction Time
⭐ Mas, Vlasov, De la Cruz, Meintjes, Bouchard, Cabedo, L.Hamilton, I.Izagirre, L.Hamilton, Vanhoucke, Verona
Think it won't be easy for a breakaway to form, the climbs are hard and the GC riders will end up fighting for the stage, and in such scenario I just don't see yet any way to beat Primoz Roglic.
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