Primoz Roglic has took revenge and won stage 8 after a great battle against Richard Carapaz in what is proving to be the fight for the red jersey. The stage was from the start apparent to be one to be disputed between the GC riders, Movistar made the chasing job for the breakaway, EF sparked the final climb and has Carthy attack first, after caught Carapaz and Roglic swapped blows at each other until Roglic managed to carve clear in the final kilometer, holding off Carapaz and taking 17 seconds on him. Carapaz and Martin completed the podium as the GC gaps were expanded within the Top10.
Positive: Vlasov and Poels with great rides coming up the overall, Champoussin again also showing great legs and I expect him to be in contention when he finds a good day.
Negative: Movistar can't be criticized for trying, the negative is in not having been able to keep up with the big moves.
The Route
Tomorrow is finally another day for the sprinters. Not pan-flat there near the end but most of the day comes easy and shouldn't be too dificult to chase.
The riders will go through the finish with 35.5Km to go, the aproach to the finish will be very fast and in wide roads, not dangerous if everything goes to normal, and should see the second bunch sprint of the race.
The Weather
A sunny day for a welcomed change, there will as usual be a moderate to strong wind from the southwest which will mean another day full of tension and with the possibility of echelons. The finish will also be incredibly fast until the final kilometer, there should be a headwind in the final sprint.
The Favourites
The fast men will enjoy this second chance to success after what is being a harsh race and most of them are still here. Despite the strong winds it shouldn't be a tough day for the sprinter teams to keep control of things, prevent splits, a bunch sprint is the expected and likely scenario so today I'm going with a full-scale sprinter/leadout scheme here to give some good insight on which teams can have bigger numbers in the end:
S.Bennett - Morkov - Steimle - Cavagna - Stybar - Garrison
Ackermann - Selig - Laas - Schwarzmann
Philipsen - R.Oliveira - I.Oliveira
Mareczko - Paluta - Wisniowski - Barta
These were are should in normal circumstances be the big four, the quality of the leadout descreases as I went through those names however other teammates can also have a supporting role in there, but the decisive meters are about those men.
Several other sprinters follow who should have a dig and try to achieve a strong result and I'll start with Gerben Thijssen who was a great surprise for me in the first sprint, Sunweb youngster Salmon and Kanter are also expected to be up there, Jon Aberasturi, Reinardt Janse van Rensburg/Carlos Barbero duo can also do well, Lorenzo Manzin, Magnust Cort Nielsen and Mihkel Raim of Israel and taking advantage of the lack of a sprinter with Moschetti's abandon Latvian Emils Liepins could take a step for Trek.
Prediction Time
⭐ Thijssen, Salmon, Aberasturi, Mazin, Cort Nielsen
The last sprint I had the exact image of it gone perfectly, Philipsen is very good in technical finishes and almost got Bennett to finish second but was beaten at the finish. And on paper Bennett is the man to beat for tomorrow but this time I'm switching it up and saying Philipsen will win and my reasoning for it is the headwind at the finish, Deceuninck will surely have Bennett in pole position for the sprint and with that Philipsen can take advantage of the slipstream for a little longer and take advantage of his advantage he has in explosivity. A big scenario I know, but I've learnt to trust my gut.
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