The breakaway succeeded once again and this time DSM have gotten a much needed win after a massive presence in the day's break. One that took a very long time to form, as the first hour of racing was violent and kept the GC riders on their toes. Storer was on an early attacking group in the hills and in the final climb he showed himself as the strongest, taking the win in front of Carlos Verona and Pavel Sivakov. In the GC group attacks also occured throughout the day as Movistar were very active, Valverde's abandon will cost them but they stayed together in the final climb as a reduced group went over the line after Ineos pushed on the final ascent.
Positive: Storer getting the win, Roglic keeping everything under control and having Kuss back as a GC contender, De la Cruz and Meintjes also with very good performances hanging on to the GC group.
Negative: Valverde abandoning after a bad crash, Hugh Carthy is also out, unsure why but it was clear he wasn't ok.
The Route
The sprinters will be having their final opportunity of the week, pretty flat stage, with not much to say, all about that final section of the stage, which can get quite exposed to the wind and may become a very threatening day for the GC contenders.
Surprisingly the final kilometers, despite being on a long stretch of sediments, is not actually exposed, as there are touristic appartments and businesses for the whole peninsula. However right before they get there, there are some exposed roads, and in the Mediteraneen the winds can get quite strong at times.
The Weather
The echelons madness will be present again. All day long this time and nowhere to hide, the wind will be consistently moderate-strong intensity from the northeast. Exactly where it's the most exposed, the riders will be in the coast almost all day long with cross and cross-tailwinds. Chaos is imminent, this is going to be an absolutely crucial day in the Vuelta.
More towards the end it'll calm down, the final hour of racing will have some coverage, quite some headwind and although the final section looks, it actually isn't exposed to the wind because of all the touristic residencies blocking throughout the whole peninsula.
Breakaway winning chances: 10%
Not a good day. Things will be fast from the gun, all GC teams will immediately be riding close to the front from the start and stay alert all day long, meaning it will not be easy for the gap to grow much as the speeds will never really slow down. Besides even if the wind turns out quite harmless, the sprinter teams will be on the case always to make sure they have the chance to fight for the win. The only thing that may give them a chance is the favourable conditions throughout a lot of the day, speeds will be high, but that isn't the case towards the end.
The Favourites
Jasper Philipsen - The dominant sprinter so far. No surprise to see Philipsen's success so far, holding the points jersey, he has a big day tomorrow as, if he intends to finish the race, he will need these points badly. I wouldn't call him an expert on these conditions, lightweight for a sprinter, and the team isn't the best aswell, but the form and motivation are in place and being a Belgian team they'll always have the expertize in crosswinds.
Fabio Jakobsen - Deceuninck are almost the go-to in such stages, Jakobsen is back to his best and will be targeting another stage win, the conditions suit him and for sure the Belgian team will try something in order to split down the group, but I wouldn't say it's their responsability to attack as they can very well win without it aswell.
Arnaud Démare - Inconsistent, however very good. You can never know how Démare will do at the start of a day, the team is focused in him and a reduced bunch could be better as positioning as certainly been an issue for him so far.
Juan Sebastian Molano - Strong legs, strong leadout, with a classics team leading him out I do expect UAE to do quite well, David de la Cruz will be protected but there is space for two leaders here, he will hope to finally net the sprint win he's ambitioning.
Michael Matthews - Not the strongest sprinter, however he's been showing terrific form and the team will be surrounding him for the points and possibly trigger echelons, it's their best chance to get the win in such a day.
Another sprinter to surprise? It can happen of course, the likes of Alberto Dainese and Davide Cimolai are likely the strongest sprinters on the outside that can be there with good support, I like Jon Aberasturi but I doubt Caja Rural will have an easy time in such a day, outsiders like Alex Aranburu, the Bora duo Martin Laas and Jordi Meeus, Riccardo Minali, Clement Venturini, Piet Allegaert and Florian Vermeersch should be there and thereabout on this one, looking for a lucky shot.
What about echelons forming and a late attack succeeding? It can happen in case there's a small group going towards the end, a team with several riders, the list isn't big but you also have some powerhouses like Sep Vanmarcke, Magnus Cort Nielsen, Nico Denz and Matteo Trentin who are always dangerous in such days where brute power and endurance will be very important and perhaps decisive.
Inside the Bus
This morning I talk to...
#154 Davide Cimolai - Man, we're here again? Yeah the crash screwed all our chances in the last sprint unfortunately, so today we have to try and repeat the plan, only that it'll be a lot harder without Mads and with a shit ton of wind to deal with so listen up. Sep has freedom today, he loves this kind of stage and he's in good form, I trust his sprint if a very reduced group flies along early in the day so you get 3rd wheel in the echelons areas. You guys will follow Guy, he doesn't have much power however so always stay attempt and don't be shy of moving out of the wheel. As you will, Itamar will also stay with you guys and try to follow the moves, it won't be easy racing as a block but the more people we have in front the merrier, stay with you eyes open always and immediately react to any echelon attempt. If you make it into a group you know the deal, wait for sprint in all cases essentially, it's your best chance of taking the stage.
#188 Andrey Zeits - Feeling better Andrey? That was a vicious crash yesterday so I'm happy to see you and Mikel are still here, today won't be an easy day I know, make sure you two stay safe, Lucas will also stay in the back of the peloton with you guys, the rest of the team will try to be in front and support Michael.
#8 Nathan van Hooydonck - Crucial day Nathan and exactly the kind of day where you can come in and be a life saver for Primoz. We have strong crosswinds right from the gun, you and Robert stay in front of Primoz at all times, the other guys will try to be as close to the front as possible, but you follow this order. Robert will take charge when things are calmer, if at any point you see some accelarations you step on the gas right away, make sure Roglic is on your wheel he can never be alone, you must stick in front of him the whole day and never loose attention, over the radio you'll get infos on the most dangerous sites.
Prediction Time
⭐ Aberasturi, Aranburu, Matthews, Cimolai, Laas, Meeus, Allegaert, Cort Nielsen
In a day flustered by crosswinds go with the Belgian guys and teams, basic rule of cycling pretty much. Deceuninck will know perfectly how to deal with tomorrow's stage, taking wins is their only goal and Fabio Jakobsen has the legs to take it in any kind of sprint situation tommorrrow, he's my man.
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