It was a thoroughly exciting day in the Vuelta, the breakaway did end up having the expected success despite a hard chase by BikeExchange and several attempts at echelons but it was massively close, as Magnus Cort Nielsen was the only survivor from the front group, he just managed to hold on a flying Roglic who came sprinting from behind to take the win after being the fastest in the front group up the climb. Roglic sprinted to second place and gained important time on some rivals, he is also the new red jersey and finished the stage in front of Andrea Bagioli.
Positive: Roglic taking time on some riders, plus bonifications and the lead once again, Cort Nielsen for giving a good note on a bad day for the team's other goal of the GC.
Negative: On the road Adam Yates and Giulio Ciccone lost 25 seconds to Roglic, Landa lost 27, Gino Mader 1:27, big time losses for such a tiny summit finish. Hugh Carthy looked bad all day long and lost 2:50, putting a pretty much definitive end to his chances of finishing on the podium. Damiano Caruso also lost several minutes and should be out of the GC fight.
The Route
A region that is very familiar for a lot of the peloton, the peloton will be riding along the hills between Gandia and Alicante, a full day in the mountains of the Valencia province, up-and-down all day long, good for a breakaway, but still we are set to have a GC battle at the end of the day no matter what happens.
Unfortunately I could not get the insight on the road surface but I can imagine it's quite a rough one, it's a quite isolated climb and like many in the region, it's steep and inconsistent. It almost resembles the Arrate finish in Itzulia, where the finish line will come after the actual ascent, and it is set to be quite explosive, with the gradients getting really tight at some points reaching the 17%, and you can judge the whole climb or the main part of the ascent by looking at the two different profiles.
The Weather
Some eatern wind early in the day will make for a very fast and somewhat dangerous start, as the riders head inside the hills it will be a lot more covered though, it will change slightly into some souther wind later in the day, so yeah the riders will be catching it on all directions. The climb should be a little covered but having a bit of a headwind, it's a very explosive one so I wouldn't imagine it having much of an influence, the close to 30º temperatures should be more important.
Breakaway winning chances: 75%
First mountain stage that features a hard start, a not-so-hard final climb where the GC riders should keep trying to stay conservative and not loose time, except for maybe Ineos, Movistar and Bahrain but I doubt. There will be better stages ahead, and those teams should try to keep as many riders well positioned as possible for now if they want to put Jumbo under serious pressure soon.
There will be fireworks, but I expect a strong group up ahead as there are already real gaps created and quality climbers with a lot of time back on Roglic. But even if riders close to the lead go in front I doubt Jumbo will mind, they clearly don't want the lead of the race yet and it's quite likely that they'll just let a breakaway cruise as they want.
The Favourites
Primoz Roglic - What can you say? He's a cannibal. Today he did what was expected of him, he didn't take the win but that won't bother him too much, Jumbo shouldn't be chasing the breakaway but in whatever scenario he's always the man to beat in the peloton.
Ineos - They did a brilliant job today, but Adam Yates struggled in the finale and that was what they weren't counting on. Egan Bernal is looking strong and he likes to attack, he probably shouldn't do so unless he smells blood though, Yates will be attacking for sure as it's a well suited ascent for him, as for Richard Carapaz he should stay in the wheels and try to loose as little time as possible.
Movistar - 2nd, 3rd and 4th in the GC right now. They probably can't get any better than that, they have two options, one is to stay conservative and try to keep those spots, the other is trying to spark a large breakaway and get Alejandro Valverde in there. Mas and Lopez will always be covered, Valverde has some more freedom and should use it whilst he's in a position where the Spanish team can put Jumbo under pressure, if they do do this they will likely need an alliance with other teams though. Enric Mas is looking surpringly sharp, Lopez likes these explosive finales, things do look quite good for the Spanish team.
Alexander Vlasov - Looked very sharp today, Vlasov is always a loose cannon, I argue the heat and vicious gradients won't favour him much, however he did surprisingly well today so he can indeed repeat it tomorrow if he feels good.
Bahrain - Today was a bad day for them. Landa lost time, Padun and Mader lost a minute and more respectively, I didn't expect a massive ride but it was not at all good, seeing Caruso should also be out of GC contention now. They have to attack I'd say as they are slowly loosing their chances to have multiple cards, they can really benefit from a successful breakaway and they absolutely have the riders to destroy the race. Landa and Mader should stay reserved, Padun aswell as he's not an explosive climber, Haig, Poels and Caruso I would expect to see trying to get in front at least.
Outsiders - I would expect naturally to see the likes of Giulio Ciccone be in front tomorrow, important day, those that will eventually fight for the Top10 have to be consistent and have a big day tomorrow. David De la Cruz is another rider who's been looking really good, I do believe Andrea Bagioli can also play a role in the finale, and Fabio Aru can also surprise as he's been riding quite well lately. Also Hugh Carthy is a big joker at this point, but I'd like to believe he'll be riding much closer to the front tomorrow.
As for breakaway contenders I've mentioned some mainly in Bahrain, but the options come from plenty teams. It's the first true breakaway bingo on a mountain stage but I do believe the win will come out of one of these riders: AG2R - Geoffrey Bouchard; Clement Champoussin
Apecin - Jay Vine
Astana - Gorka Izagirre; Ion Izagirre; Omar Fraile
Bahrain - Damiano Caruso; Jack Haig; Wout Poels (previously mentioned)
Bora - Max Schachmann
Burgos - Oscar Cabedo
Cofidis - Guillaume Martin; Jesús Herrada; Rémy Rochas
Euskadi - Mikel Bizkarra
Groupama - Rudy Molard
Israel - James Piccoli
Lotto - Harm Vanhoucke; Maxim van Gils
BikeExchange - Lucas Hamilton
DSM - Thymen Arensman; Michael Storer
Trek - Gianluca Brambilla; Kenny Elissonde
UAE - Joe Dombrowski, Rafal Majka
Yeah, pretty big list I know. GC also won't really be a limiting factor because there won't be anyone trying to prevent a new leadership. After tomorrow we should have a better idea of those who are here focused on the KOM jersey, mountain stages, and the form also in many of these riders.
Inside the Bus
This morning I talk to...
#11 Geoffrey Bouchard - Breakaway Geoffrey? Yes, we have to try today, now Clement is here aswell so you both listen up. Stay in the pack until the opening climb and there, as soon as it hits get to the front, and when you see some riders moving and going clear with no direct response that's when you go. Spend as less energy as possible early in the day but make sure you're there, throughout the day saving yourself isn't easy, it's very lumpy, but always follow the basic "work on the uphill stay on the wheels in the downhill" as much as possible, if it's a short group don't be afraid to be generous on the ascents, keep things going at your pace and then you are justified to stay in the wheels when there's good benefit. Don't go into the limit before the final climb however if it gets dangerous and the strongest climbers start to go then do follow wheels. The final climb isn't brutal but it does have brutal ramps, it's the ideal to save your legs and only strike there.
#13 Clement Champoussin - Clement, you heard it right? Good.
#133 Jonathan Narvaez - Today we stay safe, Richard is trying to come into form, and we want to keep him as well positioned as possible so we can use him later, Egan and Adam don't have the need to attack here so all we need is to stay safe here, you are a crucial piece to work throughout the day, get those musettes, get a lot of water from the car as it'll be hot, position the guys well for the descents, and stay close to the front always in the climbs. Hang on for as long as possible too, it's not your job to be chasing down moves but if you have the legs for it do so.
Prediction Time
⭐ Bernal, Mas, Vlasov, Landa, MA.Lopez, Poels, Caruso, I.Izagirre, Bizkarra, Molard, Van Gils, Dombrowski
I think the breakaway will succeed, a strong group will go ahead on the first climb of the day and hang on throughout the stage, Michael Storer is my guess for the win, he comes in focused for his goal of a stage win and he's a brilliant climber, with full freedom.
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