Aubisque and Tourmalet may have been out of the Vuelta but stage 6 delivered nonetheless and also had some surprises to it. Ion Izagirre won the stage after an attack in the last couple kilometers from a very strong breakaway group of over 20 riders, he distanced what ended up being the chasers where Michael Woods and Rui Costa sprinted for second and third. However the big story of the day was in the peloton where in a rare display of fragility Jumbo were put under pressure. Roglic had problems with a rain coat before a descent where the race split up fruit of Movistar and Ineos' work, although Roglic came back Kuss didn't, and when in the last kilometers the attacks sparked Roglic was distanced and lost the lead of the race which is now in the shoulders of Richard Carapaz who took a strong hit on the killer bees.
Positive: Carapaz has attacked hard and effective after several days of trying, the rain and the cold brought a different challenge than normal. Hugh Carthy was actually the strongest of the GC riders with a massive climb and also going up to 2nd on the overall. Gaudu, Soler and Poels also with a very good day GC wise, Gorka Izagirre and Mattia Cattaneo also coming up nicely due to their breakaway presence.
Negative: Roglic lost 43 seconds on Carapaz and that's an important loss, but even more so Kuss being out of GC puts Jumbo with a single option when they were clearly looking for Kuss in a strategical manner.
The Route
Stage 7 is an unusual stage format for a Grand Tour, it features only two ascents which will be the same climb, in a not-so-long stage and a long final loop.
The two main features of the day are the ascents to the Puerto de Orduña, it's 9,4Km long at 6.6%, has a long section which averages above 8%, it summits with 92 and 19 kilometers to the finish, should set the differences in the breakaway but also possibly if any GC rider is willing to give it a shot there is enough road for it.
The road then to the finish includes a short fast descent and some rolling roads into Villanueva de Valdegovia.
The Weather
Fortunately for the riders they won't go up to big altitude, but it will be another gruesome cold cloudy day with strong wind, coming from the southwest, which means the climb will in both occasions have a headwind, block over the summit and the run-up to the line in great majority, only the final kilometers it will come from the side. However in the middle of the circuit there are places that should be very dangerous in Espejo (74.5Km to the finish) and around Km96 over that little bump which should be around 64 kilometers to go. Of course it can happen in more places but here it may be especially dangerous.
The Favourites
With the wind being strong it won't be an easy day for the break to stay away in the sense that the GC teams will force a lot to stay in front throughout the day, combined with the flat start to the stage they aren't suited conditions for climbers who could then thrive. And also the headwind in the climb and over the summit may help a peloton bring it back if there's intention, but at the same time it will make it hard for riders in front, and won't be good for collaboration aswell as there is serious benefit to hiding and that should cause misunderstandings.
So those are my arguments against a breakaway, because on paper it's just a perfect day for it. But I will focus here on the slight possibility of a breakaway not succeeding, it can happen as teams like Direct Energie should be interesting in chasing for Julien Simon, Astana for Alex Aranburu or a late attack by Luis Leon Sanchez or even Mitchelton for riders like Dion Smith and Robert Stannard who have the quality to take a win here. Deceuninck also have Andrea Bagioli who has a strong sprint, Cattaneo and Cavagna are ideal riders for a late attack and they're a team that doesn't have responsability, EF have Magnus Cort Nielsen who is another rider who is perfectly suited for a day like this. Dorian Godon and Anthony Roux are two good wildcards to take into account, lots of Frenchmen should be eyeing tomorrow. Men like Roglic and Valverde of course are always to be taken into acount.
However breakaway chances are still high that needs to be said. Some of the names above may also have intentions of joining the break instead of relying on their team to bring it back, they should try and so do other riders let's take a look at who.
First the climbers. The headwind will make it dificult but they will want to take their chances, and then the rouleurs/puncheurs, should be the main contenders I reckon:
Cavagna & Cattaneo & Bagioli
R.Costa & Formolo & Riabushenko
Power & Arensman
Aranburu & Fraile & LL.Sanchez
Smith & Stannard & Schultz
Armirail
Cort Nielsen
Godon & Peters
Wellens
Herrada
Valgren
Verona
Hivert & Simon
Serrano
Some names are of course mentioned above as sprint possibilities as I have mentioned. The fight early in the stage will be quite important, of course just a little fraction of this list should be in front, but a winner should be here (yes I know the list is huge but it is a very open stage, but those are usually good for spectacle and that's always the most important!)
Prediction Time
⭐ Roglic, Valverde, Formolo, LL.Sanchez, Smith, Armirail, Wellens, Simon, Godon
Magnus Cort Nielsen is my call to win this stage, it's complicated to guess obviously but Nielsen is a rider that gives guarrantees on both scenarios. Has a strong sprint, climbs well and the weather conditions favour him (specially taking into acount those windy cold conditions).
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