A nervous day as expected, the winds weren't strong enough to create damage but the tension was, a big crash inside the final 15 kilometers saw Rein Taaramae on the ground again, this time loosing the red jersey to Kenny Elissonde, Romain Bardet is also out of GC contention after looking quite rough on the ground. A bunch sprint was coming, Alpecin did the perfect leadout and despite a long sprint, Jasper Philipsen took his second win of the race, beating Fabio Jakobsen and Alberto Dainese.
Positive: Elissonde jumping to red and Philipsen jumping to green alongside the win.
Negative: Taarame, Bardet and Nieve the worst affected from the crash.
The Route
Very few climbing tomorrow, it's not an unusual Vuelta stage where you just have a completely flat stage, perfect for the sprinters, but then you catch a brutal murito at the end which means the puncheurs, and the GC contenders will be on the hunt for a stage win, and also possibly some seconds in the overall.
The stage starts at almost 700 meters of altitude and it comes down to the sea into Valencia's outskirts, then the ride by the sea will be very fast and pan-flat, the riders will get an extra-run up to the climb as they will go on a loop around Cullera.
And this is what you have, it will be an insanely fast run-up to the final climb, leaving many close to the limit, plenty roundabouts into and inside the town, and then the final 2 kilometers go uphill.
You can see in the map above, this is a very particular climb, like Cumbre del Sol it's a climb up an urbanization, full of switchbacks and very explosive, steep from the bottom all the way up until the finish.
The Weather
Slight breeze from the east throughout the day, headwind at the start, crosswinds near the sea, it ramps up a lot as the riders head south. Many changes of direction, GC riders will be quite nervous, the final climb is very twisty so there won't be one main wind direction.
Breakaway winning chances: 80%
It's going to be a very interesting stage. In a normal scenario there would be no doubt, however you have Trek leading the race now with Kenny Elissonde in the lead, and that's a jersey they should absolutely want to keep, and will work for the gap to never grow too much if there's a threat to it.
No-one will want to work throughout the day because in such a finale beating Primoz Roglic is virtually impossible, he is the best sprinter amongst the climbers and the race is missing a top puncheur that could outsprint him, and gaps won't really be popping up in the GC race so there's no real point, of course also considering the following day will be important for the GC.
With that said, the start isn't ideal for attacks, the wind conditions won't be too, but the stage is mostly flat, you can get a group with some rouleurs, some puncheurs in front which is the likely scenario, and as long as they work together well they shouldn't struggle to keep the gap and fight it out between themselves.
The Favourites
There are three scenarios. First is the peloton being the one fighting for the win, which is unlikely, but a small breakaway may set, easy to control. In that case Primoz Roglic is the obvious candidate to the win in whichever way, a sprint is the most likely, he could see competition from the likes of Alejandro Valverde, Adam Yates, Egan Bernal and Giulio Ciccone mainly, you could also consider Max Schachmann as a possibility although he has so far not shown his true colours, or Odd Christian Eiking who should have enough form to resist the lenght of the climb and then have the explosivity to go for it in the end.
Then from the breakaway scenario, I'll make two lists. One is regarding riders who have freedom, quality and could win if it all came down to the climb:
AG2R - Champoussin; Prodhomme
Alpecin - Planckaert
Astana - Fraile, G.Izagirre, LL.Sanchez
Bora - Grossschartner
Caja Rural - Amezqueta, Lastra
Codifis - Je.Herrada, Rochas
Deceuninck - Bagioli, Vansevenant
Euskaltel - Soto
Groupama - Molard, Geniets
Lotto - Kron
BikeExchange - Schultz, Stannard, Howson
DSM - Arensman
UAE - Polanc
However, that's unlikely. If the break is to fight for the win there will with no doubt be attacks before the ascent. The riders know each other, and although it's a small climb there will be clear favourites, and everyone else will try to distance them before the ascent. It's a small one, punchy, so these attacks can easily succeed, and even riders who don't climb exceptionally well have a shot at winning a stage like this, it really is very open. On that one I'd include:
AG2R - Dewulf
Astana - Aranburu
Bahrain - Tratnik
Burgos - Rubio
Deceuninck - Cerny
EF - Cort Nielsen, Craddock
Israel - Vanmarcke, Wurtz
Lotto - Vermeersch
Movistar - Oliveira
DSM - Denz
UAE - Trentin
Inside the Bus
This morning I talk to...
#34 Gorka Izagirre - Gorka, stage day. You, Alex, Omar and Luisle all have to have your eyes set at the start. The stage is likely to go for a breakaway, you all have to be there at the start and cover all moves, one at a time, eventually a move will stick and one of you at the very least has to be in front. Trek will want to keep the red jersey so you're not our best card as you can be chased, however do try. If you make it in front stay attempt
#111 Mikel Bizkarra - It's a shame you lost that time on stage 2 Mikel, I know you have good form and a mountainous race well suited to you, but I think GC is no longer possible. Of course a lucky breakaway could help but we can't wait and depend on that, so we must focus on stage wins from now on solely. You'll have some brutal mountain stages later on the race, today isn't one, it's a day to take it easy, loose some time so that you have more freedom, some of the guys will be trying to get in the breakaway but not you, too flat for you to survive even in a lucky breakaway.
#54 Martin Laas - Stay hidden Martin, you've done a good race so far and we still have some more sprints left to go, today you can stay in the pack, should be safe until the end, then taper up the final climb.
Prediction Time
⭐ Roglic, Bernal, Champoussin, Planckaert, LL.Sanchez, Lastra, Bagioli, Stannard, Denz, Dewulf
Bit of a breakaway bingo here, first of many. My call is Sep Vanmarcke, I've been seeing him in good form, looking fresh and as strong as ever and I believe he will win a stage in this Vuelta. This one suits him quite well, the flatlands are ideal for a powerful heavy rider, but he can also climb these hilltops quite well when needed.
Make sure to let me in on your opinion, and of course follow me on twitter for the latest updates!