Tim Wellens won stage 5 of the Vuelta after being trying several times to take it from the breakaway, his first win of the season. The day was marked by a very long fight for the breakaway in the first part of the stage, with a couple hours needed for a group to get away including Sepp Kuss, a trio broke away and stook together until the finish where Tim Wellens outsprinted Guillaume Martin in a hard uphill hilltop, with Thymen Arensman finishing third. In the peloton Roglic sprinted away from the peloton that had a slight crash mark the finish, but the overal remains the same.
Positive: Wellens taking a big win and still having a lot of race to try again, and also defend KOM jersey.
Negative: Almost meaningless but Roglic won some seconds on the group in the sprint but no gap was attributed do to the small crash in the finale. Needless to say a technical 300-meter long summit finish isn't the smartest decision.
The Route
The stage that was created just a couple days ago. With Tourmalet and France out of the picture the organization went for a plan B in the Spanish Alps, a stage with around 3000 meters of climbing, not as hard of course, but still a summit finish that can make some differences in the GC if the race is ridden hard.
The climb to Aramón Formigal is the highlight of the day, not a very constant climb with several flat sections that lower the average gradient of the climb, but the steep bits aren't really hard to be honest, big ring throughout most of the climb is expected between the big guns. The final 3 kilometers average around 7% and has some room to make differences.
The Weather
The weather we've been seeing in this Vuelta repeated, cold cold cold with temperatures forecasted to 5 degrees at the finish with chances of raining. Shall this happen it will be a complicated day for many riders despite no big descent on the menu.
The Favourites
GC day or breakaway? Hard to tell, today was a day for the attackers to take glory as expected however tomorrow the climbers will put out everything they have in order to gain time on each other. It should be another clear day between the men we've seen so far, by that I mean Roglic and Jumbo versus the rest of the peloton. Ineos have taken up the lead quite often so far, they don't want Jumbo to do their thing and they have a strong team which can make serious damage again tomorrow,
So from this I foresee a Carapaz vs Roglic, but with Kuss having often been on the attack Jumbo have that card to play, surely they'll do it again to force Carapaz into unnecessary work. Luckily for him he may have allies in Dan Martin and Enric Mas who are looking really strong. Mas will enjoy the longer climb (although he suits better the more climbing there is) and Dan Martin should enjoy the irregular climb that should be decided by explosive efforts.
You have Chaves and Grossschartner who fit much better into explosive stages, tomorrow isn't that hard but I doubt they can be at the level of others, there's Hugh Carthy who prefers the steeper climbs so tomorrow should be about riding the wheels as much as possible, Alexander Vlasov and Wout Poels are looking a whole lot better than the begining of the race and can be considered wildcards for tomorrow specially if they have freedom and it becomes quite tactical.
As for breakaway possibilities there's a lot of riders who could be considered, I'm going to go towards some that could possibly take the win:
Mattia Cattaneo
Rui Costa & Davide Formolo
Niklas Eg
Nans Peters
Georg Zimmermann
José Herrada & Luis Angel Mate
Should a win come from a break I expect it to be between one of these men. Quality, form and freedom all help these become big favourites if the peloton gives a big leash, and of course, if they can make it there as the start isn't that rugged for a full-climber group.
Prediction Time
⭐ Mas, Chaves, Cattaneo, Formolo, Eg, Zimmermann, Herrada, Mate
I could go for a peloton win but let's face it, I'm not gonna put Roglic here everyday that's just... not exciting. But I think there's legitimate conditions for a breakaway to succeed as will be the case several more times later in this race. Ineos and Movistar have to save themselves a bit, let Jumbo pace and then try to match the killer bees' power, and I'll hope they don't push the final climb really hard and allow someone in front to take the bonus seconds available, hopefully, Nans Peters!
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