The breakaway has had early success, and despite the adverse conditions the early escapee group went on to fight for the stage win with Intermarche's Rein Taaramae taking a brilliant win and snatching the red jersey. He was the strongest up the final climb where he managed to distance Joe Dombrowski and Kenny Elissonde for the win. In the GC group the headwind and the battle between Ineos and Bahrain stalled the race, the final kilometer saw Movistar move which has sparked some differences but overall the main contenders remained relatively united.
Positive: Taaramae and Intermarche taking a big win and the lead of the race. In the GC group Movistar looked good, Roglic in control, but this was mostly a day about keeping things safe.
Negative: Hugh Carthy shedded a bit more time, not a good start at all for his podium goal, Bardet and Vlasov shedded around 30 seconds and Richard Carapaz around a minute. Vansevenant, Bagioli, Kuss, Guillaume Martin, Haig, Hamilton, Sivakov among those loosing time aswell that could surprise today.
The Route
An interesting stage, as it goes towards the Mediterraneen the sprinters will get another opportunity, this time in Molina de Aragón, and the stage doesn't have that much information actually to deliver except for the finale.
Quite straightforward into town, it's a small town and there won't be any big infrastructure to deal with, the run-up will be a bit twisty and quite fast for sure as the riders go through the big town castle, when the riders get in the final kilometer they will dash through the town, and then the final few hundrer meters there will be a small rise in the gradient that may change things quite a bit in the run-up to the line.
Interesting point to note is the roadbook's profile is incorrect, the final kilometer does not have an average gradient of around 8%, only the final few hundred meters ramp up to a gradient, smoother than the one I mentioned.
The Weather
Warmer weather than today, lot of temperature variations we're having so far, and a northern breeze throughout the stage. Should make for a cross-tailwind for most of the day, helping breakaway chances, however unless the sprinter teams do a clusterfuck it will come down to a bunch sprint.
The Favourites
It's a complicated finish, it'll be very fast with few areas to stretch it out so many leadouts will get to the final kilometer with several riders still to be used, chaos is very likely, and obviously experience will be very crucial in the leadouts in order to be able to keep the sprinter in good position. You should also get in the final 500 meters in great position in order to save up some watts as here it won't just be the max power that'll matter.
The first sprint saw Jasper Philipsen succeed, it wasn't his type of sprint which leads me to believe he's the man to beat here, Alpecin don't have their premier leadout but the Belgian will be very well suited for such a punchy sprint, more than the likes of Fabio Jakobsen and Arnaud Démare (the Frenchman does at times succeed in them but with a poor performance in the opening sprint I'm very cautious about his favouritism). The finale won't be just between them though, it opens up the possibilities for more riders actually, specially looking at how both Michael Matthews and Alex Aranburu did yesterday, the competition here isn't very high and they can absolutely capitalize on their climbing capacity, they'll be hoping for an all-out sprint from the bottom so that they can keep their power for the final meters, but they do need to be positioned very well at the bottom aswell like all others, and lacking that they'll struggle to fight for the win.
UAE are definitely going to take a big part in the sprint, Juan Sebastian Molano is their card, Matteo Trentin should like this finale but he's not the same sprinter he used to be some years ago, the Colombian also thrives at times in such finishes so they'll be perhaps the biggest wildcard in the sprint, they have a strong leadout which can work very well. Other teams like Israel definitely have the riders to be putting Davide Cimolai in perfect position, however Itamar Einhorn may be their main card, Bora also have cards to play in order to get Martin Laas in the battle for the win, and then you can expect some jokers like Alberto Dainese and Jon Aberasturi who are more pure sprinters, or others like Magnus Cort Nielsen and Clement Venturini who are well suited for an uphill punch.
You can't in theory exclude Primoz Roglic from such a finale, his cannibal-like way of riding is well known and even though it's not that hard you can absolutely see him fight for the win, riders like Alejandro Valverde, Max Schachmann, Egan Bernal, Odd Christian Eiking and Andreas Kron are between the riders that can surprise and also pop in the fight for the win.
Furthermore expect to see some names around the lower Top10 places as some wildcards usually always manage to get in with good positioning, the likes of Juan José Lobato and Florian Vermeersch should love such an uphill finale, Ricardo Minali and Piet Allegaert are also good options.
Inside the Bus
This morning I talk to...
#1 Primoz Roglic - Primoz, you wanna go for the win today? It's one for the sprinters but I know what you're capable of doing, we have bonus seconds and points classification as further motivations. Follow Nathah, he'll guide you in the final kilometers, if you get into the final 500 meters out of the Top15 then you can try to not burn everything and stay in the bunch, if you're in a good position then you definitely go for it, I've seen you take sprints home so full confidence in you!
#218 Quinn Simmons - Stay quiet today Quinn, we'll have Alex and Kiel trying to get in the breakaway in case it gets lucky, you stay with Giulio throughout the day if one of them gets in there, to protect him, he's doing quite good, in the final kilometers they'll work and you rest up, if no-one goes in front just relax, you've got great legs so save them for the days that suit you.
#98 Mauri Vansevenant - Come on Mauri, chin up! Grand Tours are long, yesterday didn't go so well but it's just one in many mountain stages, you still sit 21st in the GC which can easily be moved so keep your focus on the goal and don't get demotivated. The guys will be working for Fabio today, he's feeling really good and he can go for both points classification and stage win, the support won't be as big for you however do try to stay with them and in front, James specially will be looking out for you, today isn't dangerous so just don't do anything crazy and make sure you don't loose time.
Prediction Time
⭐ Cimolai, Aberasturi, Cort Nielsen, Venturini, Einhorn, Roglic, Eiking
Yes I'll go with Jasper Philipsen, I think he's more than capable of handling the final gradients, he's technically the best sprinter on the startlist and he's clearly got the form necessary to take the win, 2 for 2.
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