Dan Martin has won stage 3 of the Vuelta after an amazing sprint beating Primoz Roglic and Richard Carapaz in the final sprint. The stage was ridden hard always at a constant pace with wet roads and a bit of wind marking the day, the final climb had a very hard pace from the start with Ineos pushing and after some little moves in the closing meters the GC favourites went into the sprint in front, with Martin launching early and never again being overtaken, taking his first win since a stage in the Dauphiné 2018.
Positive: Martin taking a great win and also placing second in the GC currently, riding very strong and with a suiting Grand Tour, Wout Poels and Alexander Vlasov looking much better then the past days, Champoussin also a pleasant surprise in the Top10.
Negative: Valverde seemed to be the option of Movistar but failed today, Soler and Chaves struggled with mechanicals in vital points near the finish and conceded a bit of time.
The Route
Stage 4 will be the first opportunity for the sprinters to taste victory. The start of the day is somewhat rolling but most of the stage looks to be in easy roads to control, open and straightforward.
The sprint itself isn't technical, most of the approach to Ejea de los Caballeros is on a big straight road and the riding in the city has a couple roundabouts and another couple of slight corners, but shouldn't pose an issue even for those with nervous issues in the sprints.
The Weather
Some mild temperatures and a slight western breeze. Means there's a general tailwind throughout the day also with a lot of crosswinds, but it shouldn't be strong enough to make a difference in the race.
The Favourites
The stage is perfectly suited for the sprinters, there aren't many opportunities like this in the race with many "sprint" stages being hilly, and this one is actually flat flat and the fast men won't let it slide specially with teams like Deceuninck and Bora heavily investing in a leadout here.
Sam Bennett of course is the man to beat for tomorrow, firstly because of his very successful season secondly because of an immensely strong leadout he's got including Morkov and Steimle as the two riders set to launch him into the sprint, but several other riders to position him very well. As for the main rival, Pascal Ackermann, hasn't had the best of seasons but has aswell his premier leadout with Selig and Schwarzmann present. These two should be the fastest and with the best leadout specially with the technical sprint, however some more riders will fight for that win and top results.
Two pure sprinters who happen to be quite explosive, hence suited for tomorrow's sprint should be Jasper Philipsen and Jakub Mareczko. The first has had a strong season and is really a big fan of these risky sprints, has a strong leadout so I can consider him a big favourite for tomorrow, as for Mareczko not so much but I trust he will want to seize one of the few opportunities he'll get throughout the three weeks. Matteo Moschetti of Trek is another rider who should have a good opportunity however it's not easy to know how he'll present himself after a serious injury back in February.
After them there's still a big list of sprinters looking for top places, more pure sprinters such as Jon Aberasturi, Lorenzo Manzin, Max Kanter, Mikhel Raim, some names that aren't usually in contention in these big stages but get very good opportunities in this Vuelta to get a big win.
Some of them however are more punchy sprinters, who may enjoy some stages later in the race but should also try to be in contention tomorrow like Magnus Cort Nielsen, Dion Smith, Alex Aranburu and NTT duo Carlos Barbero and Reinardt van Rensburg.
Prediction Time
⭐ Aberasturi, Manzin, Cort Nielsen
Sam Bennett is for me the man to beat and I think he'll win tomorrow coming with big confidence from the Tour and having a very set leadout, capable of putting him in position for the final straight and having a dominant win.
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