A nervous day as expected, the bunch sprint was indeed the scenario as the riders returned to Burgos but not without some lost time between some GC contenders due to a late crash, no major miss however, as Jasper Philipsen took the win in a close sprint ahead of Fabio Jakobsen and Michael Matthews.
Positive: Alpecin, taking the first sprint win in all Grand Tours this year, without even being a WT team. Philipsen, Aranburu and Jakobsen are tied in the points classification and seem to be the ones willing to fight for it.
Negative: Adam Yates and Lucas Hamilton at 31, Jack Haig, Hugh Carthy and Mark Padun at 38, David de la Cruz and Rafal Majka at 1:11, Pavel Sivakov 1:15, Max Schachmann at 2:35, Harm Vanhoucke 3:10, all riders who could/can be eyeing the GC but take some time today due to the crashes.
The Route
An early summit finish is no longer unusual in Grand Tours, however this will be something different. Burgos is throwing a proper start to the race including several of the main aspects of the Vuelta a Burgos, this one is no exception, the stage is all about that final section. There will be some small bumps before the ascent to Picón Blanco, but everyone will be eyeing the brutal climb.
And I do tell you it's brutal, it's one very exposed climb which will be horrible in the summer heat, very exposed to the wind at times aswell and in a very narrow road pretty much the whole way. Besides it is quite an inconsistent ascent, it averages 9.1% for 7.6Kms but it goes above 10% constantly, it's a road built around the gradients of the mountain and not the other way around, it's essentially straightforward the whole way, a grind, and steep all the way until the finish.
The Weather
Quite cold temperatures actually compared to what they've been through, and a headwind day all day long pretty much. Not much to analyse, Picon Blanco is also usually a climb hit by the winds, a headwind through most of it is likely tomorrow.
The Favourites
Headwind all day, small gaps and lots of hopes between plenty climbers, with a mostly "flat" route it's not a day for the breakaway. GC battle for the win in Picón Blanco, a very hard climb which will be even harder because of the conditions. And what I expect is a day where everyone will be looking to each other for most of the climb, attacking into a headwind is not ideal, but pacing is the same, and this early on I doubt teams will be putting their 2nd cards (or in Bahrain/Ineos' position, their 3rd/4th/etc cards) working into a headwind, thus sacrificing those riders with no guarrantee at all of gaining anything. Hence, even though it's not a climb suiting for accelarations, I expect an agressive race. Ineos, Bahrain and Jumbo will be covering themselves, not pacing, but attack and cover each other's moves and that will be the mood of the climb.
Jumbo will be focusing on Roglic, mainly and mostly, and likely the team most commited to their leader out of these three, but don't be surprised to see Kuss let off the leash, cover moves and maybe going for the stage, it would benefit the Dutch team. They will have big rivals though, Ineos had Sivakov loose time today, and Pidcock confirm his lesser form so they don't look as bright, but still with Egan Bernal, Richard Carapaz and Adam Yates it will be dangerous no matter what happens. 3 pure climbers into an ascent for pure climbers, I expect attacks by turns until they get gaps, attack Roglic and try to make differences already from this ascent. On the other side you have Bahrain, I would expect Poels and Padun to go into a more secondary role as they lost a bit of time in the crash today, Mikel Landa is in theory the leader but you know that pressure does no-one good, it can however benefit the likes of Jack Haig, Damiano Caruso and Gino Mader who are massive wildcards in this race and can make Bahrain's race.
Everyone else should be watching through most of the climb, most will be resisting, some may attack if they feel good, I'd put that responsability more on Hugh Carthy who loves these kind of steep climbs, and perhaps Movistar who have Miguel Angel Lopez who should be well suited, although he and Enric Mas are likely to perform better in the final week. You have riders who should love the gruesome gradients like Giulio Ciccone, Guillaume Martin and Mikel Bizkarra, lightweight climbers who can do well in these constant but hard from the start efforts, others who should be more defensive as it doesn't suit them like Alexander Vlasov who should wait for the smoother ascents, and then you have some wildcards like Romain Bardet who was the fastest rider up this climb in the Vuelta a Burgos, Fabio Aru and the Deceuninck duo Mauri Vansevenant and Andrea Bagioli who can also perform well here.
Ultimately, it's still a day for testing. It's a day for surprises, other riders to possibly perform quite well, so the list could be bigger but those names will eventually be in the next few days if they're on the top spots.
Inside the Bus
This morning I talk to...
#103 Diego Camargo - Big day for Hugh, today isn't the day where your support will be most valuable Diego, however I want you to test the legs and see your level. Bahrain, Ineos, Jumbo will all be battling, we can stay in the wheels for as long as we can, stay with Hugh on the final climb for as long as possible, he should do well by himself in it so no big pressure.
#228 Matteo Trentin - Better stages will come ahead Matteo, rest up, headwind day so just stay in the tail of the peloton with the guys, we'll be trying to get some wins but today isn't one of those days.
#167 Harm Vanhoucke - Rest up Harm. Not the best day, we weren't counting on starting out the race with a crash but we have to make the best of it. You'll have freedom now, rest up for some days to get back into the tune, we'll go stage hunting later on.
Prediction Time
⭐ Kuss, Padun, Haig, Caruso, Ciccone, Bardet, Vlasov, Vansevenant
Ineos will be trying to strike early, give no rest, they brought the numbers for some reason and the wind should make the climb tomorrow quite tactical, Adam Yates likes these kind of climbs, and seems to me like the best prepared for the Vuelta.
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