Marc Soler won stage 2 of the Vuelta after a brilliant performance. Movistar pushed throughout most of the day, trying to split the peloton in the strong winds, pushing hard on the climbs, bringing back a Carapaz move before the final climb. Soler pushed the GC group throughout the final kilometers of the climb and after some attacks were reeled in after the summit Soler went solo off the front, descending into the finish. Roglic won the sprint in the GC group followed by Dan Martin.
Positive: Movistar having ridden agressively but winning from it did very well, Jumbo did well with numbers, it was a similar group to those of yesterday.
Negative: Grossschartner lost some time after a very strong ride yesterday. Dumoulin and Guillaume Martin have fell out of the GC fight essentially.
The Route
Now, i don't rate this day as a real GC day but it will be quite interesting one. It's a day for a break perhaps, if not then for the climbers to solve it out in a sprint. The stage is mostly flat with very little challenges, although it does slightly go up until the riders face the final climb whose gradients slowly increase until the finish.
This profile includes more than just the final ascent but it's important to see that the false-flat is a constant before the final ascent into the finish, the final 6 kilometers average almost 7% and they are quite regular, the gradients will never go really high so it's sure to be one paced until the final meters, but the final gradients will prove hard and can see some seconds won or lost by some GC riders, with bonus seconds also set to take part.
The Weather
Slight chance of rain and the stormy conditions the riders have been facing so far. This is what happens when you have a Vuelta this late, the conditions have not been on the side of the peloton. The wind will continue very strong and from the south, echelons are very possible in the exit of Soria and after where it will be a pure crosswind, the final climb will also be a crosswind but the run-up to the climb will be in a tailwind.
The Favourites
This is a finish for the climbers who can sprint, the puncheurs could also be there but modern cycling means the top climbers can sprint very well so it's hard to get around. Yes by this I mean Roglic the current leader of the race, in a peloton finish it's hard to imagine him being beaten so he really is the man to beat tomorrow. His competition comes on several different sides, from the pure climbers there is rivalry with Richard Carapaz, some explosive climbers as Dan Martin and Alejandro Valverde who looked very good today. Well the competition is very strong, a leadout won't be crucial because it's not that easy of a finish and the rough gradients to the line may make it more favourable for him.
On the puncheur side there's some more strong riders, arguabl I'll mention the Deceuninck duo Andrea Bagioli and Mattia Cattaneo who are very explosive riders and may hang on to perform well on the finish, there's Felix Grossschartner who performed much better yesterday than today, his win in Burgos was quite a surprise and I reckon he can replicate it for a surprise result, there's Esteban Chaves who for now is still looking at his best and is an explosive finisher, however not as much as the ones mentioned in the previous paragraph. Davide Formolo and Rui Costa should also like the finish slightly as riders who prefer the shorter climbs, Michael Woods is also a slight threat, not steep enough for him but if he's got the legs after yesterday's crash he certainly one to watch.
Some faster riders like Alex Aranburu or Omar Fraile of Astana could be wildcards also for the finish, in case of a late attack Luis Leon Sanchez is also dangerous seeing how strong he rode today. Also breakaway possibilities are real, the tailwind in the final section of the stage and the nature of the stage make it good for a group to stay away, specially since the heavier riders can be there until the end, it's quite early to name good riders to be in it because the race has just started but men like Remi Cavagna, Nick Schultz, Robert Stannard, Matej Mohoric, Nans Peters, Simon Geschke, Michael Valgren, lots of names who can be there, probably between riders with some pure power but that can also then climb to the finish.
Prediction Time
⭐ Carapaz, Mas, Grossschartner, Chaves, Woods, Aranburu, Cavagna, Carthy
Sorry but I cannot go against him. The break may make it but at the same time I think Movistar and Israel at least will want to keep the break in check, and there will be fast pace because of possible splits, sprint finish between the climbers is the likely scenario and Roglic is above the rest, didn't happen today because Soler went ahead but I can't see him being beaten tomorrow (again).
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