As expected this final road stage was a blast out on the road. Raiding territory, and that happened exactly with big consequences in the fight for the podium. A stage early doomed to be won in the breakaway, it actually saw it's 11 minute gap chopped up due to the relentless pace by Ineos and then Bahrain who, on the biggest climb of the day after a flurry of attacks found themselves well positioned for a big move up in the overall and pushed hard to assimilate the differences made to Miguel Angel Lopez, who then abandoned, and Egan Bernal. Clement Champoussin, part of the initial breakaway, was caught before the final climb, dropped, and came out of nowhere passing the GC group that was in a standstill before managing to hold off their sprint in an incredible way to take a brilliant stage win, with Roglic and Yates coming in the following spots.
Positive: Roglic solidifying his Vuelta win, Haig jumping and solidifying his podium spot as did Mader to his newly 5th place in the GC. Also Felix Grossschartner jumped back into the Top10.
Negative: Bernal and Lopez caught in the wrong split on the climb and then ultimately dropping many minutes due to tactical decisions that also saw Miguel Angel Lopez abandon due to reasons still yet to be known properly.
The Route
The final time-trial. Like the rest of the race, it's hilly, it's rolling and it's climber-friendly. Always one for the specialists, but with 3 weeks in the legs, a lot of surprises can occur, it's a tough route with descents included where risks will be taken, but the form and a great feeling is absolutely vital on the day.
All the rolling points you can see above, the main one 21Km away from the line, the final 10 kilometers are also slightly uphill, with several flat sections breaking apart some uphill sectors, the last intermediate spot included.
The race will end in the beautiful Santiago de Compostela Cathedral. Unlike 2014 it's an actual time-trial, it is rough and will be disputed roughly until the very end, both for the GC and for the stage.
The Weather
Hot temperatures and a slight northwestern breeze, nothing special.
The Favourites
Primoz Roglic - The man to beat. Great form, no cracks, recent Olympic champion in a similar route, doesn't take too much to understand his status as the obvious favourite, even with his history with bad TT's in the final weeks of a GT.
Jack Haig - Good time-trialist specially under these conditions, the rolling roads will suit his powerhouse climber style, he's got great form and although I wouldn't expect any chance on the GC around him, he'll be motivated to fight for every second.
Magnus Cort Nielsen - With the form he's carrying he's definitely a great option for this one, again form is vital for this time-trial, the amount of climbing and pacing strategy required makes it one for the men in form, not the specialists. Luckily for Magnus there are barely no specialists around so he'll have good chances, he's saved himself for many of the mountain stages and clearly has a mega engine that can do wonders in such an effort.
The stage won't probably be decided just between them but the competition really isn't top notch. At their best riders like Jan Tratnik and Nelson Oliveira would have to be considered but they both have had either not-so-good form or crashes so it won't be easy, you have some heavyweight semi-specialists like Josef Cerny, Tom Scully and Tobias Ludvigsson but they are distant outsiders for this one, better options would be rouleurs like Lawson Craddock, Rui Oliveira and Quinn Simmons who have showed the great run of form they've had in this final week and have a route suited to their skills.
Of course you could also expect a surprise from someone in the fight for the overall like Enric Mas, Egan Bernal or Felix Grossschartner who at times have done great time-trials, Andrea Bagioli could also be in contention if he's on a good day.
Inside the Bus
This morning I talk to...
#76 Álvaro Cuadros - Wasn't quite the race we expected but job done, no responsabilities for today, just enjoy the TT and make it home safely.
#34 Gorka Izagirre - Only you, Ion and Yuriy are left so hey at least you have a lot of room at the breakfast table! You guys did what you could, whoever brought the Tour team into the Vuelta is to blame for the essential lack of results, Alexander's bad luck didn't help, it's been a long season for you Gorka and so it is now time to rest.
#226 Rui Oliveira - Rui you've been riding great, I don't think winning is a possibility here but a Top10 is definitely on the table and I want you to give it your all, carry that form, the TT is very inconsistent so it's important to know where to make your efforts, it suits you well, the ascents will definitely be the spots to dig in deep, keeping the speed in the flat roads is essential and breathing in the big downhill will be crucial, to recover on that section for the final 10 kilometers to be done at top power. They will be the most important, make sure you keep your powder dry to be used there.
Prediction Time
⭐ Haig, Tratnik, Scully, Craddock, R.Oliveira, Simmons, Mas
I'll buy into it. I don't think it'll be the shining shocking performance like in the Olympics, I think in fact he'll struggle as he always does in the 3rd week TT's, but the competition is not fierce at all, so Primoz Roglic is likely set to take another easy win to his list.
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