It was much harder than expected as BikeExchange and DSM commited to a flat out chase all day long but the breakaway succeeded nonetheless. What was a big initial group split over the course of the day which was full gas from start to finish until a group of 7 went off in the final hilltop of the day. From those the strongest sprinter was Magnus Cort Nielsen and easily he took his third win of the race in front of Rui Oliveira and Quinn Simmons.
Positive: EF taking another win, having good legs and no pressure which is still really weird to me as they clearly have the strongest puncheur/sprinter in the race.
Negative: Louis Meintjes who had been looking really good and crashed out of the race today. Also DSM and BikeExchange who burnt themselves for no profit at all.
The Route
Final day in the mountains. Galicia take the final set of stages for this year and I must say, what a beauty of a final road stage. Over 200 kilometers out on the road and 4200 meters of climbing, all this without any real mountain, just pure hilly terrain, perfect for raiding, and the opposite of what they've found this week in the Asturias.
The GC contenders and the big climbers will now have to go into explosive terrain, and I can assure you none are used to stages like these 20 days deep into a race, so it can be quite a shock to the system specially to those less explosive climbers. The day starts off immediately with a short bump but when they reach the 20Km mark, if there's no breakaway set the race will start suffocating, as the fight for the breakaway will go on a roller coaster of hilltops as the race exits Pontevedra, and for around an hour they'll face this dangerous terrain. They will have a bit of rest through Mos and Tui, close to the border with Portugal, before going on the final set of climbs, which are the final 95 kilometers.
The second ascent is Mabia, 75,6Km to go.
Longest climb of the day, Mougás, inconsistent like all the other climbs, has rough gradients and summits with 56.6Km to go, leads to a fast descent into Baiona.
Then the Alto de Prado. Don't be fooled, LFR profile doesn't capture the essence of this ascent, it actually has a couple more kilometers before the categorized section, and then it does feature a gruelling kilometer at over 10%, also plenty of switchbacks, it summits with 25,6Km to go and is very explosive, the race runs down to Porriño but not before tackling another couple of short and sharp hilltops, before going for the final summit finish.
It's weird that the final climb is around the hills of Porriño this year but it promises a lot. The Mirador de Herbille ascent is not the hardest, nor the longest of the race, but it's very explosive and after such a stage there's no way it won't see a lot of roaring crowds and pain faces in the riders.
9,7Km at 4.9%, like most other climbs on the day, are not really representitive of the actual climb the riders will face. It's one that has a descent in there, a lot of roller-coaster roads in the final kilometers and a 1.9Km section at 11% in it's bulk. It's highly explosive, can see big cracks, and is the final chance to attack the race.
The Weather
Little bit of an eastern breeze that ramps up during the day but nothing important, the climbs aren't exposed and there won't really be flat roads where it can make a difference.
Breakaway winning chances: 55%
They are real. Jumbo won't attack, they'll do nothing as they have the race in the bag as long as everything is stable. This isn't a stage for puncheurs so even if guys like Bagioli or Kron have intentions of winning breakaway is the only option. What may happen is Ineos and/or Bahrain decide to pace throughout the day again trying to get a win with their leaders, although I argue their best chance is also from a breakaway, but they will still be ambitioning a podium spot which is possible with a raid in this tricky terrain.
But yeah all the breakaway stage hunters have their last chance here, the roads are not favourable at all for chasing, they're winding and rolling all day long, there will be plenty descents to recover, if the stage was pretty much anywhere else in the race it'd surely be a breakaway, but with the looming possibility of a raid it lowered a bit.
The Favourites
Primoz Roglic - The man to beat. Haven't counted but he'll have the lowest odds for the xxxxx day and with good reason. He's had 0 flaws, is the strongest climber, puncheur, and best sprinter out of the climbers in the race, with the strongest team and great form. If there are attacks or teams trying to reel it back in he's the main favourite.
Egan Bernal - Not ideal but he has nothing to loose. Bernal being 5th and Yates 6th isn't a disaster but Ineos came for more, and such a stage is ideal for raids, I expect both of them to try and blow up the race and attack the podium.
Miguel Angel Lopez & Enric Mas - They shot their shot. Beating Roglic is essentially impossible, having two riders in the podium is a great result and seeing they don't have the team to attack the race, they'll likely race defensive and try to keep those positions. Both prefer long mountains, however both are in great form and do the third week really well so you never know, Roglic may have a rare bad day.
Jack Haig - He's gotten into his best form and is on his way for a brilliant GC place that he's been promising for years. Bahrain seem commited, he and Gino Mader must be satisfied with their spots so they'll be more defensive, with a strong team behind they have the legs to keep it all together if it goes normal.
Out of breakaway possibilities there are plenty names but none that at this point in the race seems above it's peers. The DSM riders Michael Storer and Romain Bardet have been the most efficient stage hunters however they don't have the surprise factor anymore, and they also have responsability and will be the attacked ones in any breakaway. They've burnt themselves today, not the ideal scenario, they have to defend their KOM lead from Roglic though so breakaway is almost mandatory if they have the legs, they also have nothing to loose. There are other riders who have seemed great earlier on the race but either have little freedom or are feeling the fatigue, I would have Ion Izagirre, Damiano Caruso, Felix Grossschartner, Jesús Herrada and Rafal Majka in there.
There are others that seem to be coming to their best form on the final week like Wout Poels, Pavel Sivakov and Jan Hirt, assuming they'll all have freedom are good cards to play on such a day.
And you have others who've looked in form throughout the race but haven't had their success, but they have a final chance to throw their cards like David de la Cruz and Juan Pedro Lopez who have been focusing on the GC throughout the race but should definitely have freedom in such a day, Alpecin's Jay Vine who has had a good race but some bad luck, and AG2R's duo Geoffrey Bouchard and Clement Champoussin also have a suiting day to shoot their shot.
Inside the Bus
This morning I talk to...
#148 Kévin Van Melsen - Unfortunately we lost Louis who was in a great position... It's a great disapointment, after having Rein crash out of red jersey and then the same thing happening to Odd essentially. It's still a great race for us but with a big mark, we've lost our Top10 position so the only thing we can do today is try to get it back with Odd, get men in the breakaway, try to have him there alongside a very strong group and you have to do the teammate role, make the moves with him, cover them if he's there and you don't make it, also look towards Jan who is in great form and could also be a possibility for a stage win.
#116 Gotzon Martín - We have to get some more exposure, get the orange jerseys in front, targeting the stage isn't realistic today so the goal is to just get as many guys in front and then make moves throughout the day, lead the race, get on TV as much as possible. Our job is essentially done, and hey congratulations you must've been the rider I talked to the most.
#24 Alexander Krieger - We've done our race, it was a good one, we have our last chance today and we'll help Jay get in front that's the ultimate goal. He's our only chance, so early on the day do what you can to help him get in front, it's his day so just do whatever you can to assist that possibility and then try to enjoy the day.
Prediction Time
⭐ Haig, Mader, A.Yates, Caruso, Hirt, Bouchard, Champoussin
David de la Cruz is my choice. He's been on great form since the start of the race, I actually don't know how he's just entered the Top10 today with a rival crashing out. He's shown on Gamoniteiru how well he's doing and fatigue is not getting to him, he said Top5 is the goal so for sure he'll try to get himself in the break alongside his in-form team and try to climb up, and make for a brilliant solo win.
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