It was an exciting prologue, very unpredictable as expected but as I predicted taking risks and getting all the corners right was crucial, and almost saw Alex Aranburu take the win after a long time in the hot seat, but the last rider on the road and defending champion Primoz Roglic did his thing and took home the win, making this a GC race straight from day one. Jan Tratnik finished third.
Positive: Roglic starting off and taking time on his rivals, putting himself in pole position for the mountains.
Negative: Bernal loosing 27, Carthy loosing 33 seconds was way too much for their capacity in the TT's, Landa loosing 37 is also a big blow for such a small distance and suiting prologue.
The Route
The sprinters will have their first opportunity tomorrow, in the high flat grounds of the Burgos region the peloton will go on a traverse through the exposed roads of the Spanish interior, the day doesn't have much to it, there won't be KOM points available, but there will be an intermediate sprint close enough to the finish that we may see some action from the sprinters, however all should be reserved for the final sprint.
And it's quite a simple one in fact, wide roads always on the run-up to the line, there aren't any technical corners, the riders will go through several roundabouts but that's it, and they will enter the finishing straight with around 1.5Km to go, and should be covered from the wind, with no gradient aswell.
The Weather
The heat will come down, the wind will ramp up it's intensity throughout the afternoon and will be quite dangerous with it's strenght, luckily it will come from the northeast which means a head/cross-headwind for most of the day. However the start of the stage should be nervous, lot of nerves throughout the day are expected too, specially with 28Km to go as crosswinds are expected as of that turn before the intermediate sprint. Speeds will be high, splits can occur, everyone must have their best game and also a strong team around.
The Favourites
You know how it works. Tomorrow is the first sprint stage of the race, where all sprinters will be making the effort to confirm their leadouts are functioning perfectly, where they seek to get points toward the points classification but also a stage win, in the first sprint of the race. They also seek to get that confidence, starting it off with a good result is the best way to prepare the rest of the race.
Here are the leadouts you should expect to see out and about in the final kilometers tomorrow:
Arnaud Démare - Jacopo Guarnieri - Ramon Sinkeldam - Olivier Le Gac - Tobias Ludvigsson
Fabio Jakobsen - Floria Sénéchal - Bert van Lerberghe - Zdenek Stybar - Josef Cerny
Jasper Philipsen - Sacha Modolo - Alexander Krieger
Juan Sebastian Molano - Matteo Trentin - Rui Oliveira - Ryan Gibbons
Alberto Dainese - Nico Denz - Chad Haga
Jordi Meeus/Martin Laas - Patrick Gamper
Michael Matthews - Luka Mezgec -
Davide Cimolai - Itamar Einhorn - Mads Wurtz - Sep Vanmarcke
Additionally you should also see the likes of Magnus Cort Nielsen, Jon Aberasturi, Clement Venturini, Ricardo Minali and current points classification jersey wearer Alex Aranburu in the fight aswell, not as strong contenders, same can be said of their leadout, but hey it is always possible to win without the support of the best in the world. Other riders like Piet Allegaert, Juan José Lobato, Reinardt Janse van Rensburg for example are riders who with the right positioning can get themselves in the Top10 aswell.
And of course, always look out for the echelons. The GC teams are the ones that'll be most active in this case, the ones who do have big overall contenders won't be able to afford to give as much protection to their fast men, so always take that into consideration.
Inside the Bus
This morning I talk to...
#68 Pelayo Sanchez - We need some TV time today Pelayo, the breakaway isn't going to succeed in such a day, I want you to do what you came here to do which is exactly to go off early on, make sure you're in that front group and then hang on for as long as possible, we have to prove we're worthy of being here.
#191 Romain Bardet - Important day today Romain, we can't win the race on such a stage but we can easily loose it, and it's bad enough already that half the guys I expected to have here aren't because they'll be leaving the team, so you're our only option for the GC and we'll protect you. Remember we'll protect Alberto aswell, so the guys will be having some focus in him, Nico and Chad are the ones who can do this kind of work and they'll be helping you. Stay near the front, trust them.
# 28 Scott Thwaites - Control the breakaway Scott, we have a responsibility in this peloton, it will be an easy day to control so just make sure you ride through the front but don't burn too much energy, you'll be needed when doing the leadout into the crosswinds, and if possible help Jasper a bit in the leadout aswell, mostly to keep the guys safe and fresh.
Prediction Time
⭐ Matthews, Meeus, Laas, Aberasturi, Aranburu, Nielsen
It's with a lot of satisfaction that we've seen Fabio Jakobsen return to competition this year, then he became competitive, then he took a couple of wins in Wallonie. Is he back to his best? Hard to say, but he definitely looks real good, the sprint tomorrow suits the powerhouse sprinters and he even has his two leadout men with him, Deceuninck have the right tools to give him the win.
Make sure to let me in on your opinion, and of course follow me on twitter for the latest updates!
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