Primoz Roglic has started the Vuelta the way he usually starts his races. An easy win in our eyes, the opening stage had lots of abandons due to crashes and soon many GC possibilities have lost their chance of being on contention. In the final climb Ineos set a very strong pace to set up Carapaz, Kuss was the main attacker but a small group was clearly ahead and from it Roglic attacked in the final kilometer and held the gap in the dangerous finish to win, Carapaz and Dan Martin completed the podium.
Positive: Jumbo looking as strong as always and already taking the lead on the opening stage, which he should try to keep now until the end. Chaves, Grossschartner and Carthy with good climbs hanging on and being well positioned in the GC fight.
Negative: Poels and Gaudu loosing some time but still somewhat in the GC fight if they recover from it, Vlasov lost over 4 minutes, Pinot, Izagirre, Froome, Martinez and Woods have all dropped from contention aswell. Big consequences on the opening day.
The Route
Stage 2 of the Vuelta, initially stage 5 but in such a position it can have some good damage. After today's GC showdown in Arrate tomorrow may see similar but in a longer climb which may change things up a bit, most of the stage isn't very hard with a couple categorized climbs but not much else, everything will essentially revolve around the climb to San Miguel de Aralar.
It summits with 17Km to go and it's a bit of a brute, the average isn't that high but looking at a more detailed profile shows some rough ramps spread all around the climb, frequently going well into the double digits and having it's roughest ramps near the summit with 17%. The descent into the finish after isn't very steep neither technical.
The Weather
There's a slight chance of rain however the real factor to be taken into account is the strong southern wind that mimics today's. The last part of the stage has a lot of tailwind, the climb a crosswind but then there's a lot of tailwind down to the finish again. Benefit and motivating for moves in the peloton.
The Favourites
It's a stage similar to today's and with Jumbo already in charge they will be pacing and hard, Gesink finished with Dumoulin and Kuss was with Roglic with Bennett also in the middle, clearly the strongest team and I doubt anyone will be able to make a difference tomorrow with the pace they can set.
Hence Roglic with a second sprint win is my favourite, I doubt anyone can go away with mainly Kuss in there to block out moves. Ineos should race more conservative tomorrow, Carapaz will look to follow the wheels cause tomorrow isn't easy to make gaps and thus should have Sosa better. Enric Mas looked really good today, with Valverde as a possibility for a sprint Movistar should also be on the defensive, Felix Grossschartner has no mountain support and Chaves also sprints well so they should stick to the wheels if possible. The possible attackers would be Carthy even though it's not a climb as suiting to him as today.
Davide Formolo and Andrea Bagioli can be very dangerous riders too if they get through the climb in front, either for a sprint or a late attack specially since the conditions are ideal for it. But for the rest yeah it is too early in the race and most will try to resist the best they can, Jumbo will ride as they want likely and from there on it should finish in a sprint is what I think will happen.
As for breakaway chances they exist. With Jumbo in charge I don't feel confident on it to be honest, but it's very early on the race and the stage is suiting, we don't know well yet who are those that will be going in breakaways but the KOM jersey and possible red is enough motivation for now for some to go on the attack.
Prediction Time
⭐ D.Martin, Grossschartner, Mas, Dumoulin, Mohoric, Cattaneo, Valgren, Woods
Yes 2 for 2. Why not? Jumbo likes to race hard from end to end they don't let breakaways go, there aren't that many riders with freedom yet and they don't want to loose red. Seeing how they rode today we should expect a second Tour where they'll be in control and probably take it to a sprint where few riders can beat him.
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