Magnus Cort Nielsen won the 16th stage of the Vuelta after a strong sprint within a reduced field. It was another weird stage in the Vuelta with the early break not being as strong as expected but having quality riders that could make it. From them Remi Cavagna powered away from the group and was flying towards the finish but was caught with 2 kilometers to go after a big chase from plenty of teams off the back of a long confusing forcing by Ineos, the finish ended up in a sprint and a team that didn't even put their face into the wind got first and second with Magnus Cort Nielsen taking the win in front of Primoz Roglic and Dion Smith.
Positive: Nielsen getting a strong win for him and for the team, Roglic not having used his team at all and getting "free" time on Carapaz via bonus seconds.
Negative: Ineos, no idea what they were doing there, they tried to split it in the descent and that was an attempt but then they kept going for seemingly no reason, burning quite a lot of energy and reeling back riders which allowed Roglic to expand his lead even further. Movistar don't have that pressure to win but their pacing was also quite extreme for no gain at all.
The Route
The final mountain stage. It's a rough one, has over 4300 meters of climbing, it has a couple hard climbs before the summit finish in La Covatilla, but most of the stage has the slight roller-coaster roads, there's the Puerto del Portillo de las Batuecas which is 14.1Km long at 5.3%, and then a transition into the next climb.
With only 25.5Km to go summits a climb that will be a setup for the final one, the Alto de la Garganta is a constant climb, never gets hard but is 12 kilometers long, it has the opportunity to shred a peloton after quite a lot of climbing over almost three weeks and a rough stage.
After a short cobbled ramp with 17.5Km to go where things can break up there is the final climb in the central mountain range of Spain. La Covatilla is a very well known climb for the race's enthusiasts, it's a hard one in it's bulk, 11.7Km at 6.9% but with some very rough gradients throughout the climb, it will make more damage than it usually does with built up fatigue.
The Weather
Again there will be a lot of rain overnight and big chances of dangerous wet roads, it will switch around quite a lot during the day but the essential is the final climb to Covatilla and there well...
Headwind, the whole climb with some force, moderate strenght but the gusts can be immensely powerful.
The Favourites
Block headwind in Covatilla, you know what this means, the race was pretty much sealed in the Angliru. It's going to be a very complicated task for Richard Carapaz to dethrone Roglic because for one Ineos have from start to finish made the races hard and today specially they took it another step, I doubt the team will even manage to poke a hole in Jumbo's shell, and for second, JUMBO'S SHELL. With Kuss in there, Vingegaard in great form, Bennett and Gesink, headwind in the mix, he's not going anywhere unless Roglic completely cracks (which isn't impossible, but unlikely). He could have an ally as help in which probably Hugh Carthy, who will want the podium but has legs to wish for more and with Michael Woods also in great form there could be something popping out of there, as from Dan Martin an alliance would only come from himself and not the team, Alexander Vlasov or possibly even Wout Poels could further try to be Carapaz' options for the attempt of an attack, however they have to be creative and strike gold in Roglic having a bad day.
As for the stage Vlasov has a fitting climb for himself and has a very strong team around him, that could target a break but also give him strong support if needed, Carthy and Martin should also have some freedom when it comes to Roglic who, should himself be perhaps the man to beat.
So that means that, unlike the past two days that were made for a breakaway but for one reason or another didn't succeed, it could happen tomorrow (as always the Vuelta essentially). And if a win comes it should be between the strongest climbers who've been on the stage hunt and no-one would deserve it more than Guillaume Martin who's spent the whole race on the attack and has confirmed his KOM jersey, it's a pure climber day and he can try to succeed one last time this season. There's Ion Izagirre, Nans Peters, Clement Champoussin, Marc Soler, these should have a lot of freedom and quality to go in front and fight to take a final stage in this Vuelta. Some riders may have the legs but different focus, for sure Jumbo has at least a couple but the goal is to take the overall win, Michael Woods should be on Carthy duty, riders like Mikel Nieve, David Gaudu or David de la Cruz have the quality but for sure won't have the freedom to stay in front all day long due to their GC placings.
Prediction Time
⭐ D.Martin, Champoussin, De la Cruz, Peters
My call for the win will be Hugh Carthy though. It will be a hard stage, Carapaz will try to dethrone Roglic and that will be the main theme of the day, Kuss will stay with Roglic as much as possible so that favours to the leader, but I think a late move surprising will take it and Carthy clearly has the power to do so.
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