A big day in the mountains, not in the peloton where things were taken lightly throughout most of the day but in the break, with an explosive start, at the base of the first climb of the day he set off with Fabio Aru and with 87Km he went solo, never to be caught by anyone else on a way to a brilliant solo win, his first win in 4 years. The other survivors from the breakaway finished second and third, Steven Kruijswijk and Chris Hamilton.
Positive: Majka has been looking really good, and with freedom given he seized it. Odd Christian Eiking and Guillaume go into the final week in first and second after another non-threatening day.
Negative: Nothing to note.
The Route
The final sprint stage? It may just be. In Cantabria the roads are never easy, however the organizers have managed to find a very interesting balance where for the experienced eye it seems like an almost certain breakaway stage, however I don't really think it'll be the case. Although the stage continuously rides through the oceanic hills the organizers have made the effort to include mostly flat roads, but most importantly, wide roads.
The start is indeed flat, there are quite some bumps throughout the day as expected but in the crucial phase, those final 25 kilometers where the stage will likely be decided, the roads are wide actually and not bad at all for a chasing peloton. The sprinters are unlikely to have another chance, their teams should put in all the stops to prevent a breakaway from succeeding.
However you do have some little bumps, from the 21 to 11Km mark it's very dangerous terrain, in a breakaway likely the roads where the decisive move will be made, if a peloton win is aproaching for sure we'll see moves anyway because many will be licking their lips at the opportunity.
The final 10 kilometers though provide an opportunity for an organized chase once again. The flat finale in Santa Cruz de Bezana should be a stressful one with the reduced leadouts and three weeks of fatigue in the legs.
The Weather
Cooler temperatures, the riders will tell they've gone from one environment to a completely different one. A day in Cantabria with classic windy conditions, it will be quite strong from the northeast. Will be dangerous, I wouldn't expect crosswinds as a lot of the stage will be in the hills, and it's not favourable towards the end, although it is possible. The start will be violent and with a tailwind for around half of the stage. The latter part of the stage is in a headwind, with the final kilometers having many changes of direction.
Breakaway winning chances: 50%
To attack or not to attack? I say yeah attack, a lot of rouleurs, specially those who struggle to climb, will have what is likely their last chance to take a win in the Vuelta, a rugged day in Cantabria with rolling roads and strong wind is a good opportunity for them. With few and damaged sprinter teams, a fatigued peloton, it can definitely happen.
Reasons why maybe it won't? Well Deceuninck are intact and have the strongest sprinter in the race, although Jakobsen has pretty much confirmed his points jersey he doesn't seem to just want that judging by his last sprint's comments, he wants wins and it's very possible that he can get another one. Adding, Groupama and DSM mainly can perhaps help with that goal, with BikeExchange also a distant viewer as pushing the pace hard in the final bit of the stage to break the peloton and take Matthews to a win would also be a good strategy. It's the final "pure" sprint stage so many riders on the sprinter side will also be ambitious.
The Favourites
Fabio Jakobsen - With no doubt the strongest sprinter, however not the strongest rider. If it comes down to the peloton he'll probably struggle on the hilltops, however he's got a good team to cover everything and if he makes it to the finish he'll be hard to beat.
Arnaud Démare - Inconsistent, on his best day though this stage is a walk in the park for him. Will Groupama chase? I don't know, it's Démare last chance though in order to save a very poor race, he should feel the pressure tomorrow and maybe it'll propell him into a win.
Alberto Dainese - Dainese is the opposite he doesn't feel the pressure, he has no leadout working for him and it's his first Grand Tour, his results in the sprints have been great. He doesn't need a win, but he has the speed, doesn't have responsability, can absolutely pop out in the eventuality of a pure sprint.
Michael Matthews - Don't judge me because I know exactly what Matthews has done in the race and in the last few years. But he is one of the main contenders, last stage Cort won BikeExchange did not work throughout the day, they refused to work and then popped out at the end with serious firepower, if they replicate that strategy they may get another chance and go for the win again, perhaps with Luka Mezgec who has a stronger pure sprint, Matthews will struggle but he does stand a chance.
Magnus Cort Nielsen - The classic. Doesn't matter how much he wins he'll never have the responsability of someone like Matthews, so no-one will cover EF, and they also don't really have riders to work. But they just have to follow wheels it's that easy, just like in the last win. Jens Keukeleire is in great form and is a good option himself, but Magnus Cort Nielsen has been through the roof in this race and he'll have another opportunity here.
Jon Aberasturi, Jordi Meeus, Piet Allegaert, Itamar Einhorn and Matteo Trentin should also be on the lookout if an opportunity pops, the latter should focus more on a breakaway though.
And to finish it off, we have a breakaway bingo, and it's a big one, consisting mainly of some rouleurs, puncheurs also have a decent chance of succeeding in such a stage though, and not only does this apply for a breakaway but also for a late attack:
AG2R - Dewulf, Calmejane
Alpecin - Krieger, Planckaert
Astana - LL.Sanchez
Burgos - Rubio, Bol
Caja Rural - Lazkano
Deceuninck - Cerny, Bagioli, Sénéchal, Stybar
Euskaltel - Soto, Iturria
Groupama - Geniets, Roux
Ineos - Van Baarle
Israel - Vanmarcke
Lotto - Kron, Vermeersch
BikeExchange - Schultz, Stannard
Trek - Simmons
UAE - Oliveira, Gibbons
Inside the Bus
This morning I talk to...
#63 Óscar Cabedo - It's a big day for the team, we will obviously have to be in the break for sponsor time but we also have the chance to take the stage, and we have to give it our all. It'll be really hard for you Óscar I won't lie, a skinny guy like you trying to get in the breakaway with tailwinds in what should be a hard battle won't be easy, but do whatever you can to protect Diego and Jetse, if you can't be in the break at least try to protect them early on, or reel in moves where our guys aren't in, or block moves once we have a break we're satisfied with.
#116 Gotzon Martín - Breakaway day Gotzon, we have to force our way into the early moves and get as many riders as possible in them, with Lobato, Soto and Iturria as possible contenders in a day like this, if there's enough firepower in front we may be able to fly off with a stage win, job is to be there, the more the merrier, tactics throughout the day will essentially be covering all moves, try to be in the decisive ones.
#125 Tobias Ludvigsson - We have to play smart today Tobias and, I will be honest, my first thought was that you, Anthony and Kevin would be trying to get in front but after second though, it's the last chance for Arnaud to get a stage. You guys will attack stage 19, tomorrow we must try to take it to a sprint again, as the finale is rather hard and Jakobsen should struggle on the little hills. It won't be easy, but we must count on Deceuninck to want to control the day, maybe get an alliance and see if another teams joins in the work to make sure we can control and reel back some big moves, and when we enter the final 20Km, I expect there to be attacks if we reel back the break, that would be good though perhaps, we need to make the pace suffocating in order to drop or at least burn Jakobsen, then hope to keep it all together, Arnaud's best chance to win here.
Prediction Time
⭐ Matthews, Mezgec, Aberasturi, Sénéchal, LL.Sanchez, Bagioli, Kron, Vanmarcke, Schultz, R.Oliveira
Not an easy guess, I'll risk it though, a win for the breakaway and for my local man Rui Oliveira who has been looking very sharp recently and not only does he not have responsabilities to work tomorrow, he should absolutely try to launch himself into a breakaway and seize his strong rouleur and sprinter skills for a breakthrough win.
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