A day where the breakaway took off easily surprisingly, it was a big group but one without many of the main climbers, Romain Bardet and Jay Vine were the strongest and when the second had a nasty crash everything came into place for Bardet to take an expected (and previewed by me yesterday) win. He beat Jesus Herrada and Jay Vine. As for the GC it was a calm day, a move by Miguel Angel Lopez in the final kilometers triggered some seconds of gap at the end, but nothing meaningful.
Positive: Bardet getting the win he was expected to get, Jay Vine brilliantly finishing third after almost abandoning the race after a late crash. Jumbo keeping the race together another day and Eiking stay in red for another day.
Negative: Nothing to note.
The Route
3800 meters of climbing tomorrow, it's a beauty of a stage, almost ideal for raiding and having an agressive stage, it starts off quite gentle but as it heads to the mountains it becomes a whole different affair, this time in the Sierra de Gredos mountain range.
113Km to go, not the first climb but the first categorized ascent of the day, it's long, brings the riders up for familiar altitude and will warm up everyone's legs for what's to come later in the day, too soon to be making moves.
84Km to go, this isn't actually the whole climb (that is 12/13Km long), it's another long and somewhat smooth climb, mostly to ride on the big ring, again it won't cause major damage but it will add to the fatigue and build a good base of damage in every group that can be later taken advantage of.
This is the main ascent of the day, if raids are to come likely it will be somewhere around here, the gradients never really bite but that also mean they never allow you to rest. The Puerto de Mijares is over 20 kilometers long but it is full of switchbacks, much like the Jebel Jais ascent, it's one where slipstreaming has a big effect hence why it's not the best for attacking, however for teams with multiple cards, real differences can be made, it finishes with 38Kms to go and antecedes a fast and relatively technical descent, it is dangerous.
The peloton will still have another ascent, this one more gentle but nonetheless 8.6Km long, it suits the theme of the day which is the long gentle ascents, they all take a toll though and this will weigh on many riders' legs, it summits with just 5.3Km to go and if a rider goes solo over this one he'll take the win. There is still a gentle descent section into the finish line in El Barranco, where the riders will traverse the small residential streets of the town before rolling through the finale.
The Weather
Slight western breeze early in the day, and from the south later in the day, always cross and tailwinds throughout the day, will make it more explosive, and a fast stage.
Breakaway winning chances: 80%
This has been a wild Vuelta so far, and both days where Magnus Cort Nielsen won there were very confusing strategies and wild racing and that's why I'm not even more confident that the breakaway wins once again. It's a nice stage for raiding, however in both final climbs slipstreaming is very important and Jumbo have a strong team, plus the start is flat and the team that is rivalling Roglic, Movistar, are down two riders and don't have a very strong block so it's quite hard to do something like this.
Wild strategies have happened several times though this race so yeah it can happen again. However the Vuelta has been breakaway day pretty much every day except for the sprints, reasoning says another one will come tomorrow despite the flat start as today a group went easily. The KOM jersey contenders will have to be in front, the climbs aren't brutal and don't motivate attacks behind, so yeah, not a hard guess. (Although obviously I do hope there is a lot of spectacle and a possible raid).
The Favourites
Michael Storer - He's won 2, but there's really no reason not to take another. DSM are having a standout race after a horrible season, Storer is one of the many riders who will leave the team this year but the riders are very much riding well together, and I expect Storer to try and get in front again because out of the non-GC riders he is the strongest climber in the race. He'll have a long ascent where he can make difference, and with the lack of pressure he should be able to stay performing well, and Romain Bardet may be there too if possible if they intend on going for and defending KOM.
Damiano Caruso - On the opposite side you have Damiano Caruso who was leading the classification but is focusing on Haig support. There's good reason, but the smartest would be to try and attack that lead tomorrow, the Italian is showing his good form and the stage suits him well tomorrow, he should be in contention. Furtermore I would expect Wout Poels and Mikel Landa to also have intentions of joining a breakaway.
Andreas Kron - Not a climber, however his long climbing skills have evoluted significantly this year, and the ascents won't be brutal. The final climb is gentle, and his sprint is strong, out of possible breakaway contenders he should be the one with the best sprint and also good form.
Geoffrey Bouchard - Strong climber, prefers rolling climbs like tomorrows', AG2R look good but haven't managed to get a win, however their full focus is on that goal and tomorrow is a good opportunity. The Frenchman is showing good form and will be one of the main cards once again.
Ion Izagirre - Astana are down to 5 riders but as always there doesn't seem to be much cohesion within the team. Vlasov isn't doing a bad race but is in a modest 11th place and the team isn't one to support him, rather hunt stages. They took a big portion of their Tour team here and that's cost them a lot, they can however still turn it around with a win and Ion Izagirre is their best card. The descents are the terrain where he should capitalize, however on the climbs he's shown good form recently.
Mauri Vansevenant - He's still been working for the sprinters (with success I must say) so he's always a wildcard as you never know if/how fatigue will affect him. Counting that it doesn't though, he's been close to big wins, he has the quality and does appear to have the form for it, tomorrow is a good day for the Belgian.
Furthermore I expect the likes of Rudy Molard, Lucas Hamilton, Sergio Henao, from UAE there's Rafal Majka and Joe Dombrowski, from Trek there is Kenny Elissonde and Juan Pedro Lopez, and possibly Pavel Sivakov and Jay Vine (if he's recovered) as possible stage contenders from an attacking group.
As for the GC fight I expect more of the same, Movistar despite not having the team are being agressive, and Miguel Angel Lopez may once again play the same card as today and put Jumbo and Roglic under a bit of pressure, he looked brilliant today. However distancing Roglic here will be very hard, Enric Mas should be more conservative I assume, Jack Haig will have very suiting climbs but yeah it's not a day to make gaps. It's possible to see Ineos try something big as Yates is in a good position to raid, Egan Bernal also looked quite good today, the team is still in an overall good level and can ally with Bahrain and Movistar, and some teams like Cofidis and Trek have looked to want to attack the race today for their own personal ambitions and we may see more of that tomorrow.
Inside the Bus
This morning I talk to...
#115 Juan José Lobato - Honestly, not a day for you, not a day for us, sit back and enjoy the gentle climbs if you can't, roll in the grupetto, next week there'll be better stages for us, unnecessary to be spending energy here.
#201 Fabio Aru - How are you feeling Fabio? What you do today depends on that, if you're still sick then just stay in the pack and try to recover, rest day tomorrow will be crucial for you. If you're feeling good however it's an attacking day, you and Sergio both have to go look for a stage win here, and everyone else will be with you guys in front and trying to join the break and solidify them. If you make it, Mijares is where you attack, if there's guys that are stronger follow their wheel, be smart, follow as they'll be big ring climbs, if you feel you're strong in the group attack there, longest climb and it's where you can make the difference, then resist resist resist.
#8 Nathan van Hooydonck - Another day to keep it steady, we don't have the responsability to control the break, to chase them down or to attack the race. Basically Nathan, it's a hard climbing day, so you make sure you get everyone their water and food early in the day as it'll be hot, stay with the guys for as long as possible and make sure that whilst you're with them, help them position for the descents mainly. When it gets hard they'll take care of it.
Prediction Time
⭐ MA.Lopez, Mas, Haig, Bernal, Vine, Henao, Majka, JP.Lopez, Sivakov
I'll go with big man Mauri again, it's clear that he's on the verge of a big win, and he's beeing intelligently saving himself on most mountain days. It has to be his day tomorrow.
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