A dull long day in the Vuelta peloton with a very exciting finale. Estremadura took this long and hot day in the desert-like environment that was relatively eventless, there were attempts of echelons at one point but it was short-lived, it all came down to the final kilometers where Deceuninck broke the peloton in the final set of roundabouts, and although Jakobsen had a mistimed mechanical, Florian Sénéchal took it head on and from the split bunch he took a sprint win in front of Matteo Trentin, Alberto Dainese the first rider from behind.
Positive: Deceuninck keep the win within the team despite loosing their main man, Sénéchal with a very deserved big win.
Negative: Nothing to note.
The Route
A very intriguing stage. The Vuelta has pulled out all the stops to make for a very interesting route and this stage was definitely under my eye since the very start. It's a proper mountain day, it starts out quite gently in flat roads but the Extremadura region sees a great display of beauty as the peloton heads for a double ascent of the highest road in the region, in the Montes de Toledo ridges.
The first ascent is through a much different side, the Alto Collado de Ballesteros is one of those that'll put fear into much of the peloton, it summits with 68Km to go and comes right after a medium-sized ascent that has no actual descent between. It's brutally steep, there isn't even streetview from the climb (neither, actually) so you can tell how much of an unused road it is, the sattelite imagery shows us the road surface is not traditional tarmac, with good reason because of the vicious slopes, and it leads into a descent which is most of the final ascent, which happens to be quite fast and technical.
The run-up to the final climb afterwards is also really dificult, in a space of around 40 kilometers you have a bunch of hilltops in frequently narrow roads, as the peloton goes for a loop around the town of Guadalupe, they return around an hour later to face the final ascent.
Unlike the previous decisive sections of the stage, the Pico Villuercas isn't actually a narrow road. However it's an inconsistent climb, more than the profile shows, with over 16Km in distance it's a long ascent and it's steep from the start, with some rough sections spread throughout the climb, it's somewhat explosive, and one where I'd imagine to see riders blowing up quite a lot. The tarmac is quite new as at the top of the mountain there are abandoned military facilities.
The Weather
The temperatures will drop slightly but with climbs on the meny the riders won't have a chance to enjoy it. An eastern breeze will be felt throughout the day, ramps up during the day, will make for a fast starts, perhaps nervous at times if some team has ideas, crosswind in Ballesteros and a cross-headwind mainly throughout the final climb.
Breakaway winning chances: 50%
Evens for tomorrow. The start is flat, straightforward and very simple. The strong climbers will struggle, there will be around 50 kilometers of flat roads before the first gradients of the day and although it's possible, it's unlikely that the breakaway will be yet to form. But even there it's not a proper climb, many will depend on some luck to get themselves in the right move. In theory I do see a stage for the GC but at the same time I doubt we'll see anyone attack Jumbo early on, as Movistar is lacking riders, Ineos won't do it anymore likely and Bahrain are best at the moment to stay under the radar. But the second half is really hard, so if it is to go to the break, the front group needs very strong climbers that can resist the inevitable moves in the peloton.
The Favourites
Primoz Roglic - The man to beat. Will Jumbo do some kind of chasing? Honestly I don't know, they spend over a week trying to loose the jersey and worked in the next day, but logic would say no they'll race defensively and if possible not get red back yet. Roglic has crashed twice but showed no signs of weakness, he's the strongest climber in the race and it's the responsability of others to attack.
Enric Mas & Miguel Angel Lopez - Others? Movistar mainly, although if they sense one of their two leaders is having a bad day they should race conservatively so as to keep their privileged position. Beating Roglic is an almost impossible task if all is normal, however Enric Mas has been a brilliant rival so far, Movistar don't have a team to attack the race but they still have time to wait for the perfect occasion to raid the race with some alliances. All is possible.
Jack Haig - It's a final climb that suits him, it's long, it's a big day of climbing and Bahrain have the team to support him, but for sure a rider or two will be eyeing a stage win, or KOM jersey. Haig is doing a brilliant race so far and Haig is in an ideal place almost, likely he won't be on the attack but when you have the legs you attack, so who knows.
Michael Storer & Romain Bardet - The team are all about the goal of getting further stage wins and the KOM classification, they have two riders in great form with Michael Storer and Romain Bardet. Having two cards it's easier to have one in the break, and there is no pressure to save other riders.
Damiano Caruso - He did brilliant last week and showed the power he's got, with a KOM lead to defend he is sure to be joining breaks this weekend, the team have Haig to protect but Caruso should have total freedom to protect this jersey.
You will have more riders looking for an elusive win like Wout Poels, Mikel Landa, Geoffrey Bouchard, Jay Vine, Ion Izagirre, Mauri Vansevenant, Mikel Bizkarra, Lucas Hamilton, Sergio Henao, Rafal Majka and Juan Pedro Lopez. It's a brutal mountain stage so you can't look towards inferior climbers, you need riders with great form, who can make long ascents really well. This is a combination of some, they will all have a chance to get in a breakaway and that's their only chance, but they will wish to make it into a group and then be the strongest, it's definitely a stage you can go solo from far.
Inside the Bus
This morning I talk to...
#116 Gotzon Martín - It's a day that suits Mikel so we have to help him get in the breakaway, he's one of the lightest guys in the peloton so he absolutely needs support to make a move with a start like this, your job alongside some of the other guys will be to be on the move and try to take him with you, try to have some luck aswell with the peloton, block moves if he's in front, we have to pull out all the stops to have a chance to take a stage.
#65 Ángel Madrazo - Your a man of the people Ángel, I don't remember seeing you in front until now, maybe you have but what matters the most for you is to show the jersey, be agressive and show off our beautiful purple equipment, winning a stage is too much for you in the mountains, but if Oscar is in front we can absolutely play you as a card, make others chase and maybe give him a chance.
#28 Scott Thwaites - Personally there isn't much left to do here, your job for the rest of the race essentially will be to help Jay get in breakaways, today you have to do that exactly. Start is flat, not good for the climbers, so you'll be in front and trying to join moves with Jay on your wheel, try and make moves, solidify gaps, if it does happen give it your all before the first climbs of the day because soon you will be dropped.
Prediction Time
⭐ Haig, Bernal, A.Yates, Landa, Poels, Majka, Vine, I.Izagirre
I think a breakaway will succeed and Romain Bardet will finally succeed in taking a stage, DSM have played it smart here, and he has the form to take one home, tomorrow one of his best chances.
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