This time-trial saw some surprising results but the win came in the form of revenge by Primoz Roglic who won the race's individual challenge. After a hard day similar to this at the Tour there were talks of him possibly underperforming again (which may have slightly happened) but he rode a strong time-trial and got the win with a fast climbing time, beating Will Barta who had an incredible run coming agonizingly close to the win and Nelson Oliveira. Roglic is now also in the lead but Carapaz defended himself quite well being only 39 seconds behind in the overall, with Hugh Carthy with 47 after having a very strong ride himself.
Positive: Roglic taking the win and red, it must be said Carapaz rode very strong aswell, Hugh Carthy aswell and even Dan Martin who finished 13th, David De La Cruz also rode himself into the Top10 with his best stage to date. Will Barta's agent will also have some busy days for sure after today.
Negative: Enric Mas really was the looser of the day, finishing 16th, and at the time I'm writing it's still in discussion wether he will be penalized after a bike change outside of the set zone. Mikel Nieve came down from 10th to 13th after a bad time.
The Route
Stage 14 is another stage that should in theory be for the sprinters but is perfectly designed for a breakaway. 204.5 kilometers, there is no serious climbing but over 3000 meters of ascent. Rolling roads throughout the first half are a constant, and although there are some flat bits already in the second half.
With 23.5Km to go there is the Alto de Abelaira which is 6.4Km at 4.2%, not a hard climb but it isn't easy aswell and there's no descent directly after. There will be a bit after though, but sadly for any fast men that could have hopes there is still a rise to the finish in Ourense, it's 1.1Km at 6.5% and it's very technical.
The Weather
After some days of break the windy conditions return. Today it was felt, making for a slower time-trial, tomorrow however it should play a different role with a moderate to strong wind from the northeast, meaning exactly tailwind conditions throughout most of the stage. Some headwind in the final climb, however it's very twisty rolling roads, the decisive move can happen anywhere.
The Favourites
This is what I call a classic Spanish breakaway day, the rompe-piernas terrain of Galicia is hard and with the weather conditions on hand I have no doubt the early escapees will take over the glory (unless some crazy strategies take place behind, which I guess is appropriate for the period we're living in).
So in case something like that would happen I would imagine the smaller teams Caja Rural and Direct Energie to go all in for a small chance of a win by someone like Gonzalo Serrano or Julien Simon, but frankly their chances are much better of if they are in the break. There's some puncheurs that can sprint quite well which I expect to see in front and will be those that need to be dislodged, the likes of the Astana Spanish armada look very good over here with Alex Aranburu perhaps being their best choice but with Omar Fraile and Luis Leon Sanchez providing very strong alternatives (alongside the Izagirre brothers, but maybe they'll wait for the harder days). Then follow Mitchelton who've got both Dion Smith and Robert Stannard who fit in perfectly for such a day, Deceuninck have a massive array of candidates and they all fit in very well with Andrea Bagioli, Zdenek Stybar, Mattia Cattaneo, Jannik Steimle and Remi Cavagna all legitimate candidates for the win, NTT has some fast finishers in Barbero and Rensburg who by all logic should also give it the beans tomorrow and have Michael Valgren as another strong possibility but for an attacking scenario, Lotto have a very strong Tosh van der Sande who can definetely win atop a climb like this, Tim Wellens will also be a big fan as an agressive rider suited for the rolling roads who also packs a sprint, Magnus Cort Nielsen of EF and Dorian Godon of AG2R are some more strong picks for tomorrow of those who are looking for stages, the French team also have Nans Peters who's looking quite strong but hasn't yet deal a blow.
Then of course there's some more riders but those who should be more agressive and try their luck from far, some of which are included in the previous paragraph as I had to mention alongside their teammates but some come with less support, Groupama have a very talented rider in Bruno Armirail, one I expect to take a big win soon (maybe not so soon because the season is almost over), he has a big engine and climbs these small pitches very very well and has Anthony Roux who's also looking on form as an alternative. Movistar will want to defend their team classification so for sure will be represented in front, Nelson Oliveira is flying and would be my man if I must choose from them and also Willie Smit of Burgos is a powerful rouleur who knows exactly what to expect.
Some more names can be added, more of the puncheur side, who hope for a hard race but one decided on the final climb by attrition, UAE have Rui Costa who should once more target the stage, Davide Formolo and Alexandr Riabushenko as good riders to eye tomorrow, and Sunweb have some quality men aswell, from which I would rate Robert Power and Thymen Arensman as the most likely to take glory from a day like this.
Prediction Time
⭐ LL.Sanchez, Cavagna, Cattaneo, Valgren, Serrano, Wellens, Peters, Armirail, R.Costa
This is a massive roulette but inbetween the breakaway hopes there's some that give more confidence than others. Astana are certainly one of the best for tomorrow both individually and collectively, with strong legs on multiple riders and a win up for grabs they should try to grab it and Alex Aranburu is my choice to see that happen.
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