It was a very unusual yet exciting day of racing, one designed for a breakaway, but one that never came to succeed after it took a massive amount of time to go off, and then cracked upon UAE's relentless chase in the peloton. In the final climb attacks came off the front and threatened the stage win, but then BikeExchange got to the peloton with a bunch of riders and chased back the move, all the work from these teams didn't have a reward though as the breakaway artist Magnus Cort Nielsen was also in the peloton and after a brilliant leadout took the win in front of Andrea Bagioli and Michael Matthews. A crash involving Primoz Roglic and Adam Yates marked the day, but reports suggest it was rather unharmful.
Positive: Cort Nielsen taking a second win and profiting from the confusing lack of responsability EF has.
Negative: UAE burned their team in a chase that was never going to succeed, BikeExchange didn't do the same mistake today but with how well they raced towards the end coming off with a third place is always disapointing. Jumbo, Ineos and Movistar all had riders affected by the crash, possible medium-term damage in it.
The Route
A return to the flat stages, it will be a hot and dry day so by no means will it be easy, but it should provide the sprinters with another opportunity to succeed, and attack the points classification.
The day should be all about the sprint. The teams of the faster guys won't let the opportunity slip, no way, so they'll control and then fight it out on these roads. Villanueva de la Serena features the finale of the stage but - in a safe decision - will see the peloton ride only around the city in big wide avenues, it won't be a dangerous finale, always in wide roads, it features some roundabouts but nothing too dangerous, into a very fast finishing straight.
The Weather
Brutal heat once again, and some increasingly strong western breeze throughout the day. Shouldn't be too important, the heat will definitely wear down the riders quite a lot, but the finale should be covered and a normal one.
Breakaway winning chances: 5%
Very unlikely. You will have Deceuninck and Groupama likely chasing down the moves, there is no big climb or feature in the stage that could make it threatening, easy day to chase, and I doubt many riders will be dreaming of a breakaway win in what will be a long frying day in the sun.
The Favourites
Fabio Jakobsen - The man to beat. Has the team, has the leadout, has the consistency and has the legs. His return to competition has been more than successful so he shouldn't have pressure but honestly I would be disapointed if he doesn't take another one tomorrow, he has everything set for it.
Arnaud Démare - He hasn't been himself this year, he's also missing important pieces in his leadout. It isn't being easy, however on his best day he can for sure still take a big win, and Groupama does need it badly here.
Alberto Dainese - He's on the uprising, sharp sprinter, it's early to get a GT win however he's been very close, his leadout is not at all good for the competition but he can definitely surprise.
Magnus Cort Nielsen - Yeah I mean, he just won a sprint convincingly after two stages in the breakaway, he seems to feel no fatigue at all so I wouldn't be surprised at all if he's in the fight again tomorrow. Although seeing how well Jens Keukeleire did today maybe he'll be the card to play.
The list grows shorter. The win should be between those top 3 names, all other fighting for a podium or less. You will probably have riders like Itamar Einhorn, Bora duo Martin Laas and/or Jordi Meeus, Jon Aberasturi, Riccardo Minali, Piet Allegaert, Florian Vermeersch there or thereabouts in the fight. Yeah it doesn't look like a World Tour list we've got at this point but to be fair the race has been quite hard until now.
Inside the Bus
This morning I talk to...
#195 Chad Haga - Day for Alberto today, we have work in our hands, with Philipsen out we have some more chances of taking a win and it's important that you do your job today which will be of leading out Alberto and Nico. We aren't here with a big leadout so he'll have to jump on some wheels, but you and Nico have to make sure that he's well positioned until as far as possible.
#131 Egan Bernal - Stay focused Egan, I'm very glad I have the chance to talk to you actually, listen up. A Grand Tour is 21 days long, we have just done 12, the hardest are yet to come. Form comes and goes, you are not by any chance in bad form, sitting 7th and leading U25 isn't the goal but it's decent, you had issues since the Giro with covid but hey we can't change the past. Roglic crashed twice in these days, Mas and Lopez come from the Tour, Martin and Eiking likely won't be able to hang on that well. A lot is still to happen, you won the Tour with a raid in the final week and you can do the same still. You're doing solid, stay conservative, the heat and toughness of the race will be decisive, I trust you and the team's capacity to deal with the third week, and I know you have a good chance to bounce back and attack the race, alongside Adam possibly.
#94 James Knox - Chasing duties today James, unfortunately your form isn't where it should but you've done your new role quite well. Pressure isn't big, it's not your kind of work to do but we need to save our guys for the leadout for Fabio, you won't be alone but your job is to stick your nose in the wind and make sure the breakaway that goes never gets threatening, also you need to make sure no strong group gets away, although it's unlikely to happen.
Prediction Time
⭐ Cort Nielsen, Keukeleire, Einhorn, Laas, Meeus, Aberasturi
Yeah I mean there isn't really much to work with here, nothing to surprise likely, Fabio Jakobsen is the clear favourite and should take his third win.
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