It was a weird stage as the breakaway fight was less than very intense and a Jumbo-lead peloton brought back the last remaining riders for a GC fight in the steep pitches of Valdepenas de Jaen, where expectedly Primoz Roglic won the final sprint in front of Enric Mas and Miguel Angel Lopez to extend the gap on his rivals, with Odd Christian Eiking remaining in the red jersey.
Positive: Roglic taking another win.
Negative: Aru loosing time and the GC fight possibility, Philipsen and Aranburu DNS.
The Route
The riders will head into the Guadalquivir basin tomorrow in another classic hilly stage at the Vuelta, a hilly start will allow a strong group to get away, in a stage that's likely to have a breakaway see success as it will be - in normal conditions - too hard to control, but too easy to attack the GC.
The stage has two main features, with 49Km to go you see the Alto de San Jeronimo summit, a climb that starts with 5Km at 7%, decent bit of climbing before a long stretch of rolling roads towards the summit, that antecede a very fast and technical descent towards the first ride through the finish line.
The riders will go up once again the same hills though, but via a different ascent this time, the Alto del 14% is quite self-explanatory, not a brual climb but near the summit it does feature 1.8Km at 9.4% which is more than enough to decide a stage. It's a windy climb, harder than it seems, it summits with 19Km to go and sees in the same technical descent that will lead the peloton for the last time into Córdoba. The final kilometers are pan-flat and not at all technical, good roads to chase.
*map of the descent, the center route
The Weather
No wind but the heat will be vicious, with temperatures over 35 degrees expected, in exposed roads all day, it won't be pretty...
Breakaway winning chances: 90%
So today the break didn't work? Yeah I did find it weird, the reason why it happened is because BikeExchange fully commited to bringing back the modest breakaway, to absolutely no gain at all. That won't happen again tomorrow I would believe, they must've learnt their lesson, and tomorrow there is no summit finish or a climb that can dictate differences between the GC riders, furthermore the extreme heat will make it a conservative day for all the riders looking at the race in the long-run for an overall result.
Plus the start tomorrow is quite rolling, so it'll be much easier for a strong group to ride away early, and I believe that in big heat days breaks are more likely to succeed, as everyone in the peloton will be suffering and more exposed to overheating.
The Favourites
Michael Matthews - Yeah I still think he can win a stage here, but it's definitely not the way BikeExchange are riding. His only chance is in the break, but always very unlikely as he'll be marked wherever he goes. Still he's got great form and a team willing to support him, can happen.
Andreas Kron - A rider who knows these grounds well, he's carrying great form and is very explosive, both for the climbs at hand and for a sprint, a win is just about to come.
Romain Bardet - 6th today, his early crash was unlucky but Bardet has recovered to his best level as shown today, I think there are better stages suited for him, however if he tried his legs today for sure he'll do the same tomorrow, DSM are on a roll and synched, and he may be the card to play tomorrow.
Mauri Vansevenant - He's finally off the Jakobsen leash. Vansevenant is a huge talent and a brilliant rider for hilly stages, furthermore he's also showing a strong sprint, big big danger if he's found in front.
It's a very hard stage to predict. Firstly the breakaways have been quite random these 2 days which are the ones everyone should've been eyeing since the start of the race for a breakaway, secondly it's a hard finale, where rouleurs have a good chance if they attack early:
LL.Sanchez
Tratnik
Rubio
Sénéchal
Craddock & Cort Nielsen
Vanmarcke
Schultz
Haga
Trentin
Where puncheurs can do the same, perhaps resist in the final climb and have a good punch in the end:
Calmejane & Champoussin
Molard
Narváez
Henao
And where climbers also have a little bit of ground to strike hard, in the final ascent:
Vine & Bayer
I.Izagirre
Poels
Rochas
Vanhoucke
Storer
JP.Lopez
Polanc & Majka
Big list, yes, it's a breakaway bingo and a complicated one when the stage suits so many. Should make it exciting!
Inside the Bus
This morning I talk to...
#2 Koen Bouwman - It will be a really hard day Koen, on the plus it should be somewhat calm as it's a day for the break and in the final climb if you see everything goes calmly you can drop back. What matters is staying safe, keeping the whole team saved up in the peloton and make sure you drink drink drink, all day long, you'll be roasted out there.
#43 Damiano Caruso - Save up Damiano, you're doing really good so far and with a stage in the pocket, we have KOM points to chase over the weekend. After we'll see what to do, as Jack will also need support, however today is a day to spend as less energy as possible. Mark hates the heat, he and Mikel should drop back early on, stay with them, the rest of the team will be with Jack.
#151 Sep Vanmarcke - Day for the break Sep, no excuse. There won't be many more chances and you have to capitalize on your form. The team has been completely absent in the race so far sadly but we have the chance to turn it around and you're our best card, we'll support you today, at the start it shouldn't be too hard to go in front, we're only 5 guys left but Guy, James and Sebastian should also look into trying to get in front and boost our chances, however what you'll do is rather simple so listen up. First step hold back at the start and put in some counter-attacks in the two little hilltops, a group should go there, second collaborate throughout the day but at times when you're about to hit the front of the group don't be shy to call the car, even if for a chat. The first climb of the day will pass and you'll be in the group for the first half, then second one you attack hard in the rolling roads before the summit, try to find an alliance with someone else who's in the group, making it alone is hard, also make sure you talk to someone with teammates in the group, they'll help deorganize the chase. Then, fully commit, the rolling and flat roads are where you can gain time, and the final climb save yourself for the final 1.8Km they'll be quite hard, it won't be easy but do your best there, if you go over the top alone for sure you have it in the pocket, if you're with someone best chance likely is to work together and bet on a sprint, an ambitious but possible plan.
Prediction Time
⭐ LL.Sanchez, Schultz, Tratnik, Champoussin, Molard, Poels, Bayer, Majka
Hard choice, however I'm going with the best mix of form, climbing skills and team. Mauri Vansevenant, he'll need things to be settled on the climbs, but if he's in the break and that's the decisive scenario then he's a very dangerous rider, due to win big soon.
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