One of those days where it's clear that the riders are the ones that make the race, despite the very hard profile with over 5200 meters of climbing the GC favourites have stuck together the whole stage and sprinting to the line with no differences made, the glory went for the breakaway where David Gaudu, my prediction of yesterday, making it in front, resisting the moves of Marc Soler and sprint it out to the line taking an important win for the Frenchman. Soler finished runner-up with a good day for his GC and Michael Storer finished third.
Positive: Soler climbing up to 6th in the overall with a good day in Movistar's GC race, Vlasov, Nieve and Gaudu also having good days in that scenario.
Negative: Chaves had a mechanical again on the penultimate climb, but overall looked to have a bad day, he's out of the Top10.
The Route
Stage 12 is what I reckon the organizers probably think of as the queen stage. It's only 109 kilometers long, a very short but sharp day in the Asturias with 5 categorized climbs. The three opening climbs will set things up and particularly the Alto de la Mozqueta will hurt some legs as it's 6.4Km at 8.2% and summits with just 49 kilometers to go. However with the menu comig after it has a very secondary role in the stage.
The Alto del Cordal is where it will really start to unroll. It's 5.5Km at 9% and has it's steepest bits near the summit, it finishes with just a mere 21Km to go and everything that separates it from the base of the Angliru is a steep and technical descent. Asturian sketchy roads, dangerous!
And then, the Angliru! No presentation needed, it's known as one of the hardest climbs frequently used in pro cycling, it is a climb that starts off "gently" with some kilometers before it goes on to the brutal phase where for around 6 kilometers it averages 13% and in several occasions it goes above 20%. Brutal is the most similar way to describe it, it's a mythical Spanish mountain and the GC will have here on of it's most important clashes.
The Weather
The race is getting warmer, not many clothes will be seen in the final climb, as for the wind it will also be weak but some gusts may be felt from the south, possibly some headwind during the climb but it shouldn't be meaningful.
The Favourites
Tomorrow is a very simple day.
Brutal, and yes it's the Angliru day so all GC riders will go maximum over the final climb, and it's big enough to make huge gaps, so having riders that can win from the break will only happen if the absolute best riders that have the freedom to go in front in the begining of the stage, which shouldn't happen with such a flat start.
Gaudu was there today so he shouldn't give another go tomorrow, Guillaume Martin should be but he's been burning a lot of energy to be a realistic contender, Ion Izagirre and Alexander Vlasov are the two riders I would consider for this scenario, perhaps Mikel Nieve if they let him go but as 10th overall probably he won't be on the fight, and Michael Woods maybe, I doubt as he'll be in Carthy support but he likes the rough gradients like tomorrow.
As for the GC riders yeah it's the fight we expect but actually there's highs and lows for each rider:
Roglic - Strongest climber and strongest team, but heavy
Carapaz - Lightweight/powerful combination, but no team
D.Martin - Flyweight, but not as strong
Carthy - Heavyweight but loves steep climbs
Mas - Strong and consistent, but not looking sharp
These are the big five, I do expect a Roglic/Carapaz battle again, with Kuss in there probably, and the two chasers in Mart and Carthy also have good points for tomorrow but at the same time need a super day to beat the other two. As for all those remaining, Wout Poels is the one to consider, second as a youngster back in 2011 and again in 2017, he loves the steep climbs and the Angliru is obviously one perfect for him, his form is looking very good and he's in the Top10 so he will want to fly up this grim mountain.
Prediction Time
⭐ Mas, I.Izagirre, Nieve, Woods
Roglic will win the stage tomorrow and seal the overall win if everything goes to normal. Not the most exciting idea for me, I thought Carapaz would have the lead in the mountains but in Moncalvillo Roglic has showed that even there he's somewhat superior. Tomorrow is a pure climber day but I think he's got what it takes, a huge engine to power through the whole climb.
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