Two races in one, it was a stage for the pure climbers today, it took a long time for a breakaway to set but when it did it went all the way to the finish, a big group of 30 went ahead and from those Michael Storer was the strongest in the final climb, putting enough distance to his rivals to hang on and take his second win, in front of Mauri Vansevenant and Clement Champoussin who led the chasing group home, alongside the new red jersey Odd Christian Eiking. In the peloton Jumbo gave up the red jersey once again, Primoz Roglic attacked early on the final explosive climb though but a crash on the descent brough his attack back down, a split in the GC riders still made differences however the Top3 remained together.
Positive: Storer and DSM getting another big win, Eiking being Intermarché's second leader of the race and sneaking into the GC fight alongside Guillaume Martin, everyone in the 1st GC group gaining some 37 seconds over the chasing group, very mixed riders in them.
Negative: Roglic's crash may ultimately bring unwanted consequences, Bernal and Yates lost some more time and Ciccone really cracked and lost another heap of time.
The Route
An Andalusian classic, a stage through the hills of the Spanish interior that finish in one of the most classical Muritos in the country, the small town of Valdepeñas de Jaen is the highlight of this complicated stage that in only 134 kilometers includes 2600 meters of climbing, despite not having any major ascent.
It's unlikely that it will be the stage decider as many will fear the final ramp, however with just 8 kilometers to go the Puerto de Locubin will have an essential role, likely to shed the breakaway group, likely see some attacks in there, and in the peloton you will also see the peloton loosing significant amount of riders, which is good as it'll make the aproach to the line less dangerous.
A fast descent will come after, and the riders will aproach town already in a false-flat (ignore the small downhill in the profile, it does not exist). It will be very twisty as the riders enter the urbanization which will stretch things out quite a lot, the fight for the leadout will be suffocating, and they will then ride straight into the brutal gradients that go up to 24% in the tight streets of the center, the gradient will soothen out a little until the line but no matter what happens it's a pure anaerobic effort.
The Weather
Some more heat and a slight breeze from the northwest, shouldn't make much of a difference as it'll be covered by the Andalusian hills.
Breakaway winning chances: 85%
Yep another one. Although Intermarché have red it's very unlikely that anyone can get in the breakaway that threatens Eiking's lead, the stage is very short so it will be easy to control in that sense. To actually control the stage, it isn't hard, but no-one will do it. Ineos have learnt their lesson, Movistar don't have a day to attack here, and if Jumbo purposefully wanted to loose red than the thought of them working here for a possible Roglic win is anecdotal.
The stage is short, I expect at least 20 minutes of fighting before a serious group goes, puncheurs and rouleurs will be on and around, and fight for the stage win, will be impossible to reel back with the teams that are interested in chasing.
The Favourites
Andreas Kron - My big card for today. He used to be just a (very strong) puncheur but this year he's also shown proper climbing performances, he's got the combination of form, freshness and explosivity needed for such a stage.
Wout Poels - Like most of Bahrain's team he started the Vuelta clearly far from his best, however he's looked quite good today ending in the Bernal group. Bahrain have enough riders to protect Haig, target a stage win and rest up others for future stages, he's exactly the kind of rider that can win a day like this, he's one of the peloton's goat track experts.
Michael Matthews - One of the few riders who came from the Tour and brought his form. He's still looking very sharp, his Cullera performance mainly shows he's on top form, the day doesn't feature any massive climbs so he can definitely power through them, and the final hilltop he's always a candidate for it, brilliant puncheur.
Romain Bardet - DSM are finally on a roll and they are doing exactly what they should, spending no unnecessary energy with their riders. Today he clearly saved himself, although I think he has KOM and better options later in the race, in his current form he can absolutely win a stage like this, he likes the agressive and explosive kind of racing a short hilly Vuelta stage like this has to offer.
The list somehow for today isn't as big as I expected. We've seen a lot of movement from the riders interested in netting stages this way and there has been a clear separation of waters, as from 2019 I've understood that firstly, having a rider go all-in in a breakaway doesn't prevent him from doing it all over again the next. With this said some of the riders who rode really well today are expected to repeat it tomorrow as they are similar stages, suited for punchy climbers and strong-climbing puncheurs, the likes of Clement Champoussin, perhaps the best card in AG2R's deck, including Bouchard and Calmejane who also were in front today but have a better suiting day tomorrow, Mauri Vansevenant who was on domestique duty for most sprint stages so far which has cost him, he looked very well today however and will have to be taken into consideration from now on. Like Vansevenant, I also expect to see Rudy Molard to start showing his true colours.
You will have also Gorka and Ion Izagirre of Astana who will be looking for a stage, Astana's decision to bring in a lot of the Tour team has not been working so far and they are in need of a good result, there is also Pavel Sivakov who should get more freedom as Ineos' GC challenge took another blow today and pacing shouldn't be in the cards anymore for now. Additionally if UAE give freedom to Rafal Majka he should be able to do something nice, Jan Polanc will for sure be trying to get in the move and it's definitely a stage that suits him, and the rider in front of him in GC Juan Pedro Lopez is my other wildcard for it.
Inside the Bus
This morning I talk to...
#48 Jan Tratnik - Protect protect protect, tomorrow you may look into maybe joining a breakaway Jan, but today stay with Jack, you and Yukiya have the role to do so and with your form you have to adapt to the position without secondary thoughts. Gino is also on the fight, some of the guys will rest up early on so you have a crucial role in making sure they stay safe and cover if they have some issue. It's not a day to attack, conserve and think of the next few days.
#21 Jay Vine - How are you feeling Jay? What you do depends greatly on that, if you don't feel you're flying when you start the stage then don't bother, stay back and fall back to the grupetto at the finish, not worth spending unnecessary energy. If you feel good than you must try again, it may not look like but it's a day that suits the climbers, specially the explosive ones like you. Tobias, Floris, Eddy and Scott will all be at the front ideally and covering moves and the goal is for either you or Tobias to be in front with at least Eddy or Scott aswell, numbers will be crucial. What you should do though is to try and move on that first little hilltop after 20 kilometers, then stay hidden throughout the day, it'll be hard and explosive, in the penultimate ascent you should see if you can accelarate towards the first third of the climb, take advantage of the more constant effort you'll have to do there, eliminate the guys who can't climb as well, and then just try to get some collaborating and hope for strong legs in the final pinch.
#25 Sacha Modolo - No big efforts to make today Sacha, stay with Jasper and fall back to the Grupetto when it starts forming, oh and put a 34 or 36 ring in front, trust me.
Prediction Time
⭐ Bouchard, Vansevenant, Molard, Sivakov, G.Izagirre, Majka, Mas, MA.Lopez
A breakaway win for the brilliant Andreas Kron, hard to imagine a better suiting day for the Dane.
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