It was a day full of changes in how it looked to finish. A day set for the breakaway and the puncheurs, the early break got 12 minutes of lead but due to it's lower quality than expected they were incredibly easily reeled back in for the peloton, some late attacks specially by Cavagna looked dangerous aswell, the sprinters were far from the action, Guillaume Martin almost surprised but it was another one for Primoz Roglic to take, easily over Felix Grossschartner and Andrea Bagioli. With the bonus seconds and little split at the line Roglic is now back in the red jersey after Carapaz struggled.
Positive: Roglic taking time and a big stage win in impressive fashion.
Negative: Lot of teams worked today but the win slipped for a climber, Carapaz struggled in the finale loosing the jersey, Soler and Nieve also lost some seconds that shouldn't have been given to.
The Route
As we enter the Asturias the race enters the final decisive stages in this Vuelta. Although Farrapona is still left, these two summit finishes and the TT will wrap off the GC in a solid manner. It's a day with some traditional climbs and over 5100 meters of climbing, a real mountains day.
The first of 3 main climbs is the Alto de la Cobertoria, 10 kilometers at 8.7% and quite a lot of them are in the double digits. It's a brute of a climb, very constant and rough in it's bulk, we shouldn't see attacks in it but serious damage can be dealt in it. It summits with 74Km to go.
And then with just 33Km to go is the other climb the Puerto de San Lorenzo, a similar climb in a way, it's one of two halves where the first 6Km average around 5/6% and the final 5 are above 10%. Another brutal climb, and seeing how it isn't far from the finish and is consistently hard it could be a launchpad for dangerous moves.
However it can all come down to the final climb though. The Alto de la Farrapona is a climb that is also quite hard. It's not as steep as the last two, it also just becomes hard with 6Km to go which average around 9% which is quite high, it's enough to make big damage as it also has a long buildup to those kilometers where there are some rough gradients to add to the fatigue.
The Weather
Cloudy but luckily not a rainy cold day as we had in the Pyrinees, this day in the Asturias will mostbly be marked by a moderate wind southwest with gusts that can be quite strong near the mountain tops. The first two big climbs can have some headwind sections mostly despite the twisting and turning, whilst the final one will mostly have a crosswind.
The Favourites
Now there are some important things to consider for tomorrow. Despite the day's brutality, the presence of Angliru on the next day alongside strong winds that won't come in the form of tailwind, this means that there may not be as an agressive race as expected. The battle for the race is sure to be between Roglic and Carapaz and surely they'll wait until the final kilometers to try and take another blow at each other. Jumbo has the team to attack but only one option for the GC, they're now in the lead and will want to control Carapaz from making big differences.
I think it will come to that, there shouldn't be any crazy attack or raid if everything goes to normal, Hugh Carthy and Dan Martin are looking very good for a brilliant podium result and still in sight of a surprise win so for sure they won't risk that opportunity aswell, and should stay in the wheels and try to get some time if there's a standstill (unlikely) between the two big guns. Enric Mas in normal circumstances could ride there with the best, hasn't looked sharp but can always play a factor in there aswell as Marc Soler who has looked pretty good in the begining of the race.
Then there's some outsiders, Alexander Vlasov should be the only one capable of riding with the best and taking advantage of his distanced position on the overall for his advantage (although he may also have breakaway freedom), the rest of the contenders should be from a breakaway scenario.
Astana are in fact looking really good, with Fraile, Luis Leon Sanchez they have two riders in great form, tomorrow may be too hard for them but the Izagirre brothers will love the terrain in hand, also looking quite good in terms of form, Astana as a whole looked very solid it was a shame that Vlasov had a bad opening day. David Gaudu and Guillaume Martin the Frenchmen, won't have that much freedom but are showing some great legs in the mountains, Clement Champoussin and Nans Peters of AG2R should also be nice options for tomorrow having the freedom and quality. Gino Mader, José Herrada and Niklas Eg. There's a lot of quality and riders who will be looking to get in that break but it takes a lot of quality to succeed.
Prediction Time
⭐ D.Martin, Carthy, Poels, Peters, Champoussin, Eg, Mas
My call for tomorrow falls on David Gaudu, he originally came into the race with stage hunting ambitions, and although we've seen him at the front a lot he's quite far down the overall, enough to have freedom to be on the break. He likes high and steep mountains days like tomorrow, I think breakaway win is likely tomorrow and he's a top rider to make it through.
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