A very interesting day, with the early breakaway succeding as Damiano Caruso attacked with around 70Km to go on the longest ascent of the race, and witheld the surging peloton to take a brilliant solo win on Velefique. Ineos looked to spark the race several times, in the final climbs the attacks came early and hard with Yates and Lopez the main sparks, big differences were made as Primoz Roglic and Enric Mas rode a level above the competition and solidified their 1st and 2nd spots.
Positive: Roglic staying under control, Mas looking superb, Haig looking much better than earlier in the week and confirming his status as a podium contender. Caruso obviously also with another result and looking much better than the first stages.
Negative: Vlasov with a disapointing ascent seemingly suffering from the heat, Mikel Landa also with a big loss.
The Route
Opening up the second week there is a fine transition stage throughout Andalusia, one that is (by Spain's patterns) quite flat but having a rough ascent that transforms this into a day that is likely going to be decided between the climbers/puncheurs that find themselves in a breakaway. Until the intermediate sprint in Torre del Mar the route will be completely close to the Mediteraneen, from there on it heads to the interior where the riders will face the biggest challenge of the day.
That is the Puerto de Almáchar, if you take this average it doesn't look like much but you can easily see that it's a climb of two halfs, with a small peak early on and some flat roads that reach into the actual ascent which is 4.7Km long at 8,8%, very straightforward, hard ascent that can see differences even between the GC riders if there is agressive racing behind - it summits with 16.7Km to go - which is quite possible as the descent following is quite technical, not a lot of hairpins but a whole lot of twisty roads.
As the riders reach town it's only a short little ride into the beach line, the final kilometer is completely in a straight line, a sprint finale between a couple riders or more is also possible, but unlikely.
The Weather
Slight wind from the south throughout most of the day, crosswinds from the left that is, but it shouldn't have much of an influence as it won't be very strong, the ascent will be covered (if any effect, should be as a headwind).
Breakaway winning chances: 60%
On paper before the race I wouldn't even blink. But seeing how BikeExchange and Michael Matthews rode on Cullera I think they will be greatly motivated to repeat that scenario and get good points, possibly a stage win to their race. They may also have the help of other teams who may see in an unpredictable day like this a good chance to succeed, the roads won't be hard to chase and as long as the peloton controls who's in the break they shouldn't struggle much to reel it back in.
The start is also quite flat, hard for a strong group to get away, hard also for good climbers to go clear, and the final climb will require quite a lot of quality, specially as with the technical descent, we may very well see the GC men at it again. Nevertheless I deem it as the most likely scenario, albeit with reservations.
The Favourites
Michael Matthews - The work his team did in Cullera was expensive, but he surprised me finishing 6th there. The climb today is twice as long, think the bookies haven't understood that, but if attacks aren't decisive, BikeExchange do have the man to beat as he does seem to be carrying great form.
Magnus Cort Nielsen - The actual winner on Cullera, actually showing brilliant climbing legs. He has no pressure, Nielsen is a rider that rarely performs but when he does he's incredibly impressive, EF have no other ambition other than stage wins at this point and I do expect to see them work a little, they have a good man leading them.
Andrea Bagioli - Brilliant on Cullera, at his best he can definitely be up there with the big climbers, but he's also inconsistent. In any ways if the race breaks apart and he stays close, he's definitely a great option for a sprint.
Primoz Roglic - He won't be trying to go for the stage win, but any attack he should be able to cover. In case a broken up group makes it to the finish his sprint should always be one of the best.
Sprint? - Could happen. Things can stay relatively quiet, and some other puncheurs/sprinter hang on, not the likes of Philipsen or Jakobsen, but men like Alex Aranburu, puncheurs like Max Schachmann, Odd Christian Eiking, Nick Schultz or Andreas Kron could hang on and take it to a sprint.
GC fight - To beat Roglic in a sprint I don't think so. However the climb is explosive and short, the descent is very technical so a little gap over the top can turn into something bigger, and a win. At the same time an attack at the end of the descent can succeed as the run-up to the line is quite small. Egan Bernal and Enric Mas are the two riders I expect to be covered by Roglic, everyone else should have a little more freedom, however Ineos and Movistar should be internally battling. Miguel Angel Lopez and Adam Yates have chances of going over the top, the powerful kind of climber like Jack Haig, Alexander Vlasov or David De La Cruz could well benefit from a very late sneaky attack.
Breakaway opportunists will be eyeing it though. It's really hard to name who are the big contenders, it's a mix of someone who can roll well on the flat, climb well, and well, just have luck to be in the right move I guess, and luck isn't something I can study. I would expect Astana to be quite focused in getting riders in front, Luis Leon Sanchez being perhaps my top guess, Sep Vanmarcke will probably be eyeing it too, DSM have stage wins in sight and maybe will have a Thymen Arensman in front, Trek with Quinn Simmons, or Matteo Trentin for UAE, it's a very complicated one, but these guys are very powerful, but mostly it'll come down to luck yes.
Inside the Bus
This morning I talk to...
#175 Nelson Oliveira - With Johan and Alejandro out we have to look into our reserves and ride more conservatively Nelson. We have both Enric and Superman ride brilliantly, we can't be focusing on secondary goals at the moment we have a real GC challenge in our hands. Rojas come here you need to hear this too. No teams classification, we may go for stage wins but not today, stay with the leaders, save your legs for the mountains, if we want to win this race we have to race like it.
#176 José Joaquin Rojas - You heard it.
#215 Juan Pedro López - I am loving your race so far Juan, you just haven't joined a breakaway, if you had I'm sure you'd be above that 17th place. But you will finish much higher if you keep riding like this, this 2nd week is breakaway territory, I think today will be too hard to get in one, although if you see things are loose you have to try, alongside Alex, Kjel and Quinn who are great rouleurs, getting in the Top10 is very possible, although we should be looking into stage 12 mainly for that. Today just stay in the pack, the final climb is steep it suits you well, try to stay with the GC group and climb up the overall.
Prediction Time
⭐ Aranburu, Kron, Schachmann, Eiking, A.Yates, Bernal, Mas, MA.Lopez, De la Cruz
Won't be boring, there's plenty of scenarios that can work out, I don't want to go for a safe option with Roglic, I think there will be someone chasing and preventing a strong breakaway from going, a GC fight will develop in the final climb, and a surprise late attack by Miguel Angel Lopez will succeed.
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