Stage 9 was an expected sprint finish but a dramatic one. After a calm stage there was stress in Roglic having a badly timed mechanical but coming back, Deceuninck led the finale up to the finish as expected and Sam Bennett took a dominant win. However, due to an agressive approach to the final sprint where Bennett repeatedly shouldered a Trek rider he's been relegated. Hence the win has smiled to Pascal Ackermann who takes a very important win after a rough year in terms of big wins. Youngster Thijssen and Kanter completed the podium with him and the GC remained the same.
Positive: Thijssen second, Kanter third, Renard sixth. Complete surprises in dispute of WorldTour stage wins and they are all very young, the new generation isn't only thriving in the mountains!
Negative: Philipsen had a chance to take a big win with Bennett's relegation but didn't get the best of sprints.
The Route
Stage 10 is one classic Spanish sprint stage. It's quite a curious day really because there are so little opportunities for the sprinters in this race and when a profile somewhat friendly to them appears the organizers decided to insert a final climb that will make it impossible to several.
The stage is full of little hilltops, rompe-piernas roads all the way into the finish, there's several little climbs, it's ideal breakaway terrain but the sprinter teams should have a big saying, and they should all make it to the base of the final climb to Suances which is 1.5Km long at 5.9%.
The Weather
Some higher temperatures and weaker winds, almost doesn't look like the race we've seen so far.
The Favourites
Tomorrow is a very interesting stage where the puncheurs should be the men to beat however they need to ride hard enough for the sprinters to be destroyed on that final steep pitch, and where the climbers will also be in front in search of bonus seconds, make the splits and possibly take a stage. But all of this of course if there isn't a breakaway taking the win which is indeed the likely scenario, but let' take this one step at a time.
Firstly as much as you may neglect the fact is that a rider like Roglic is always a main favourite even for a stage like this. Add him to riders like Valverde, Dan Martin and even Felix Grossschartner who can also launch bold late moves you have some big contenders in here.
Looking at the sprinters there some big hitters, on their best day a rider like Bennett or Philipsen could resist a rough climb but on paper they should struggle a bit to make it there, there are good options however in men like Alex Aranburu, Carlos Barbero, Magnus Cort Nielsen, Dion Smith & Rob Stannard, Julien Simon, Tosh van der Sande. Lot of quality and depth here, riders that rarely get a chance to fight for a stage win but have tomorrow a very suiting day and may create an alliance in the peloton to counter the breakaway's favouritism.
And then there's the field of puncheurs aswell and having a strong surprise this season with Andrea Bagioli he is one to consider, perhaps motivate Deceuninck to chase if they don't get men in front, Steimle and Stybar could also do well in such finale. Astana have two more cards in Luis Leon Sanchez and Omar Fraile who both look in tremendous form and are very good for this kind of explosive finale, Caja Rural have a pearl in Gonzalo Serrano a rider who's still very under the radar but is very explosive and fit for an anaerobic effort like this. Rui Costa, Robert Power and Alexandr Riabushenko are also some who'll like the stage, but will need specific scenario to win.
And then of course you have the breakaway hopes which, in a stage like this, dozens of riders fit the scheme. It's a game of trying to make it early in the day, hoping to hold off the pack and then having great legs and also a very good tactical day because if it goes to the front riders the winner may come from a medium-range attack before the final climb. Tons of names I've previously mentioned are big contenders and will want to be there, but I'll add some more, specifically more focused in rouleurs who are also suited for a day like this. Remi Cavagna, Michael Valgren, Tim Wellens, Bruno Armirail, Nans Peters, Davide Formolo, Dorian Godon.
Again, this is set to be a big day, with the Asturias on the horizon the GC riders will try to spend as less than possible, but there's a beautiful and hard stage up for grabs that can fall for anyone!
Prediction Time
⭐ D.Martin, Valverde, Barbero, Smith, Simon, Philipsen, LL.Sanchez, Cavagna, Valgren, Wellens, Peters, Armirail
My call for the win is Gonzalo Serrano. Very open day, can fall for any kind of rider, no-one knows how it'll end up. Caja Rural whatever they do they'll commit to it, and they have an experienced and motivated team, either in break or in the peloton the Spaniard has the explosivity to win a hilltop finish like this.
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