The Route
The Vuelta opener, a thriller this year as we've got a prologue that suits very few riders, definitely not the specialists, and may very well reward those who have prioritized form early on and also take a lot of risks. This is no ordinary start to any race, you may want to see the map below for some context firstly, but in terms of profile you have...
The Alto del Castillo as the main feature, not a hard climb, but it includes changes in the road surface, some switchbacks and is far from an ascent with consistent gradients. The descent is the climb the riders usually face in the opening stage of the Vuelta a Burgos, will be fast, the less brakes the better but it won't be easy to see riders taking those risks, those who do may gain some seconds.
From there on though the profile shows a pan-flat route, but it includes nothing short of 5 corners that will cut the speed, and the closer the riders get to the finish the harder it will be to apply that max power as the roads will be quite narrow, the road surface will be far from ideal. Confidence and a lot, and I mean a lot of reconning will be the essential factor here.
Changes in tarmac, cobbles involved during the ascent.
Top of the ascent.
The Weather
Temperatures above 35 degrees, I can't fathom having to wear a skinsuit in these temperatures and I'm confident many will suffer quite a lot from the head despite the short route. Also, the route isn't very exposed but there will be strong wind throughout the afternoon, with growing intensity from the southwest, I don't think it'll make much of a difference even if there is a sudden change in wind strenght as it's very twisty, very covered.
The Favourites
I've said it before and I'll say it again, this isn't a prologue where there are real favourites. The weather conditions will be vicious, the pacing in the climb will be varied and can be crucial, the risks taken will make a big difference, both in the descent and in the center of the city. Will the GC guys be taking big risks tomorrow? Primoz Roglic is the man to beat according to the bookies and understadably so after Olympic success, this is however a completely different effort but one he should be fit for nonetheless, the question really comes on wether he'll take the big risks or not which will be crucial. There are plenty of puncheurs and climbers that will like such a route, riders like Max Schachmann, Jesus Herrada, Magnus Cort Nielsen and Quinn Simmons don't have much in common but I foresee them all in the top places as the qualities of a puncheur are needed and they all have good background in TT's aswell. There is also Mads Wurtz who I value as a very dangerous rider after seeing the great form he's carried around in Burgos. There are riders like Tom Pidcock who also seem very suited to this effort but shouldn't be coming with the best form according to some sources, climbers who can TT like Ion Izagirre and Jack Haig should also be good options, and some puncheurs/sprinter type of rider like Michael Matthews, and specially Alex Aranburu (who is known for flying down these techy descents) who can surprise aswell as the effort is short enough, Omar Fraile is definitely another wildcard to add that wouldn't normally be a factor in a time-trial.
But with this said, can the actual time-trialists still take some advantage of their specialization? It's a sharp TT, there won't be any constant efforts so only those who are used to agressive style of racing will be as much of a favourites as the previous ones, unfortunately for them that isn't their speciality. Nonetheless you absolutely cannot discard the quality of riders like Jan Tratnik or Dylan van Baarle who have shown nothing but outstanding form this season and if they have their best game tomorrow they are serious threats, and then you have a list of some B/C-tier time-trialists who are also looking to take advantage of the absence of many of the specialists to conquer a stage, for sure you can also be looking at riders like Nelson Oliveira, Chad Haga and Lawson Craddock as big contenders for tomorrow, and also some wildcard names like Josef Cerny, Will Barta or Tobias Ludvigsson who also have some history in the discipline and should be taking all chances to make sure they have a very fine result.
Inside the Bus
This morning I talk to...
#27 Edward Planckaert - Eddy you won't atop the Castle just a couple weeks ago, you had your success there, we'll be on the hunt for stages here and tomorrow isn't one of the days, however it'll be a very tricky prologue and you've got great form, what you've got to to is to go all-out on the opening kilometers, start off moderate and as soon as you feel the gradients you step on the pedals, accelarate hard off the corners and try to keep as much speed as possible no ifs no buts. In the descent if you feel you have great legs over the climb then take risks, study them well in the recon, the less brakes the possible, take as much speed through the corners at the bottom aswell and there also go deep in every straight. Practice getting your arms in the bars in the recon at high speed, it will be a very nervous final kilometer in such pavement and narrow roads, every fraction of a second is vital, memory is everything here.
#147 Rein Taaramae - Keep it steady Rein, you've got good form and plenty opportunities, just make sure you don't crash and make it inside the limit.
#42 Yukiya Arashiro - We've got a lot of guys to protect Yuki so keep it light tomorrow, have to save as much energy as possible for the coming weeks so don't go burning yourself, your teammates will need you.
Prediction Time
⭐ Pidcock, Wurtz, Fraile, Van Baarle, Oliveira, Craddock, Haga, Je.Herrada
I think we'll be seeing a lot of unexpected things in this Vuelta, and with the brutal conditions and tricky route this prologue will have very random results, where form is perhaps the most important, and in that sense I'm picking Quinn Simmons to take the opening prologue and red jersey, he has it and he's also a big fan of short efforts like these, and I trust his technical skills.
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