The Route
The opening stage of this Vuelta is quite a rough one, it wasn't the start planned but with Netherlands cancelled for this year the Basque Country will take in the opening stage. So what to expect from it? A climber in the red jersey from day 1, in fact a GC fight since day 1, it's not a brutally hard stage but there are gaps to be made and everyone will come into the race and directly take a shock, bad days can easily make for important gaps here.
The final two climbs come in fast sequence and will be the main aspect of the day, the Alto de Elgeta has it's KOM point with 16.5Km to go (summits a little after) and has some rough gradients, it will be mostly a warm-up to the final climb but it will shed the peloton quite a lot.
And the final climb to Arrate is very well known, a usual in the Vuelta and also the Tour of Basque Country, it's a rough climb, quite constant in it's hardest phase at 9/10%, it gets a bit gentle towards the end but it's a climb that usually makes some differences as there's no rest in it's hardest part, the finish though can come on a dangerous fast sprint into the Sanctuary.
The Weather
There will be some slight rain, maybe not during the stage but it's almost certain there will be wet roads. Remember in the Basque Country they say if you don't like the weather wait 5 minutes, the wind will also be quite strong and from the south. There will be tailwind throughout the climb and a crosswind over the top, they aren't bad conditions for attacks to come.
The Favourites
It's the first day of the race, a day few can predict. Well when Jumbo isn't around that is, although rider form may vary a lot within the candidates and there may be outsiders jumping in as the climbs are not too long and somewhat explosive. Jumbo will for sure pace out the final two climbs as they always do because it's their way of racing, with Roglic, Kuss and Dumoulin they will for sure control the climb, as for the finale unsure how they will manage but chances are they will be looking for a sprint to take red and take command for the stage.
In the pure climber field find Richard Carapaz and Thibaut Pinot as the big riders, Carapaz being one who likes attacking in more shallow gradients to add to his natural climbing ability, whilst Pinot has a strong sprint and likes these shorter steeper climbs. Then there's a couple riders that in their peak would have the main favouritism, they may be there as threats but will have to hope for the climb not to be too agressive who are Dan Martin who will be leading Israel and also Movistar having Alejandro Valverde, whenever it's the Vuelta he's usually got very good form racing at home, the team should be more focused in Enric Mas but Valverde is always a wildcard in this kind of stage. Andrea Bagioli and Daniel Martinez are other riders, in different dimentions of course, but that could surprise with a strong sprint aswell. There's Alexander Vlasov who I don't expect to see on the attack but be present and try to resist the high pace that's likely to be set, but of course could be a surprise.
Then there are more punchy climbers such as Michael Woods, David Gaudu or even Guillaume Martin who are strong riders but ones that will depend on agressive racing, a big move still in the steep pitches and honestly a great day.
The list of wildcards is big, there's tons of riders looking for a very special win and we know very little on how their preparation was, Wout Poels, Mattia Cattaneo, Ion Izagirre, Esteban Chaves and some more can play a role in the finale aswell including domestiques of some of the leaders previously mentioned. I think a lot of answers will be given tomorrow, as for now let's enjoy an enigmatic stage!
Prediction Time
⭐ Martinez, Sosa, Gaudu, Chaves, Vlasov
I'm going with Roglic for the win. Coming in strong, wether he's able to keep his form all the way until the end is a good question, but for now I see no reason why he can't. It's his type of day and as in the Tour I see no scenario he can be beaten, but let's see maybe I can be surprised!
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