Red Jersey
⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Bernal, Roglic
⭐⭐⭐⭐ Carthy, Carapaz, Landa
⭐ Pidcock, Majka, Kruijswijk, Poels, Aru, De la Cruz, G.Martin, Mader, L.Hamilton, Vanhoucke, Storer
The startlist for this Vuelta is quite special and spearheading it we have 3 teams who will be surely taking the helm of most mountain stages. Not exclusive to these but I foresee that, in a normal scenario, we will see a battle between Ineos and Jumbo-Visma. The defending champion Primoz Roglic returns after crashing out of the Tour, he bounced back to become Olympic ITT champion and there is no surprise why he's won the last two editions of the race, his canibal-like style of riding is perfect for this race and his almost flawless set of skills makes him a constant threat to everyone else, having the support (or co-leadership) of riders like Sepp Kuss, Steven Kruijswijk and Koen Bouwman. And they will be opposing the Giro winner Egan Bernal who comes as the leader of Ineos, but not only is the resurging Colombian spearheading the brutally strong squad, he's also having a set of brilliant climbers like Olympic champion Richard Carapaz and Adam Yates who can themselves easily take over the lead of the team, or be used as very strong cards, adding to that the youngster Pavel Sivakov who should also have the legs to do so but will need some space to breakthrough, and Tom Pidcock who's making his long awaited GT debut, and although he comes in likely in a full domestique role, you never know what he's capable of doing.
Bahrain will be the team that most closely contests with those two at the start. How they'll play their cards is important, the wisest would be to not work, not attack early on the race, try to keep as many cards as possible for the latter week of the race, Mikel Landa comes off a win in the Vuelta a Burgos and as the team leader, but in reality he's just the biggest name in a team that has also Damiano Caruso and Jack Haig as proven stage-racers capable of fighting for the top places that carry a strong TT, Wout Poels, Gino Mader and also Mark Padun all in the background. Total of 6 riders who can realistically fight for the overall, not all will of course, but Bahrain has plenty cards to play and they have the chance to use them, they aren't the only brutal team but they can sure turn the race on it's head if they have some good planning and form.
You will have the home team Movistar coming in looking for a strong result, Enric Mas lead the team at the Tour and will be coming here co-leading the team alongside Miguel Angel Lopez, the Colombian had bad luck at the Tour and eventually abandoned without having results to show, he'll be hoping not to feel the fatigue here as he heads for a race that suits him very very well. EF have Hugh Carthy who is coming in with great form and loves the steep climbs of Spain, somehow he's still quite underated but he's a clear contender to finish on the podium. Astana have Alexander Vlasov as their main weapon, but will likely be putting more thought on how to get stage success with their Spanish armada.
Additionally you will have more riders filling in the Top10 or around, quality is immense, you have for example Romain Bardet fresh of his first win in years in Burgos' Picón Blanco stage who will be looking to repeat his Giro success (although the weather won't be to his liking), Trek being lead by Giulio Ciccone who was also on his way to Giro success until a crash brought it all down in the final week, his agressive style of racing and quality in sharp climbs will be a great plus to what the riders find here in Spain, you have Guillaume Martin who will be targeting a Top10 just like he did at the Tour and finds a good opportunity to do so, Rafal Majka and David de la Cruz who will seize what is sure to be their final opportunity to lead a GT whilst in this team, maybe with GC on their mind, Mauri Vansevenant who shouldn't be an immediate GC contender but absolutely has the quality to have that ambition in mind, Fabio Aru who comes off a brilliant 2nd place in the Vuelta a Burgos and is set to ride his final professional race here in the Vuelta, BikeExchange who bring in Lucas Hamilton, although the Australian has had far from a perfect lead-up to the race he's a very talented stage-racer who has to be considered, and finally I'd also add in Harm Vanhoucke in this list, big big potential from the Belgian climber who is yet to show his real quality I'd say.
Green Jersey
⭐ Jakobsen, Molano, Dainese, Valverde, Mezgec, Aranburu, Pidcock, Carapaz
Flat (Stages 2, 4, 5, 8, 13, 16)
Finish - 50, 30, 20, 18, 16, 14, 12, 10, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1
Medium Mountain (Stages 6, 10, 11, 12, 19)
Finish - 30, 25, 22, 19, 17, 15, 13, 11, 9, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1
High Mountain/ITT (Stages 1, 2, 7, 9, 14, 15, 17, 18, 20, 21)
Finish - 20, 17, 15, 13, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1
Intermediate Sprints
IS - 20, 17, 15, 13, 10
The points system has changed quite significantly in this aspect at the Vuelta, and in what way. More points in the flat stages, and there will be a decent amount of bunch sprint opportunities throughout the 3 weeks, the remaining stages have still a moderate amount of points, and you know very well that in the Vuelta the hilly stages will frequently fall for breakaways, mountain stages too, so the points won't be going to the same riders in the hard stages which favours the fast men. Furthermore the new IS points system, benefiting only 5 riders at once, will make breakaways very important for those fighting for it, and there is a big benefit to netting those points.
With these changes I thoroughly believe the fast men will be the ones fighting for the classification this year. Consistency above all and Jasper Philipsen is the one who's given me that confidence the most, he finished 6 times on the podium of Tour de France sprints, he will be getting a lot of points here and he is unlikely to miss on those points as he's brilliant in positioning, the team will be focusing on him as they did in France and he has a legitimate reason to take this classification.
He will have to battle the likes of Arnaud Démare, and maybe Fabio Jakobsen mainly in the bunch sprints, riders like Michael Matthews and Alex Aranburu who will be a threat in the hilly stages and can easily net points in breakaways, and as always, despite the changes, they'll have to be facing the likes of canibalistic riders like Primoz Roglic and Egan Bernal who can quite frequently be up there in faster finishes, but above all are the riders who should get the most points out of the hilly/mountain stages.
Polka Dots Jersey
⭐ Majka, Nieve, I.Izagirre, Grossschartner, Carthy, Landa, Ciccone, Vansevenant, Bagioli, Carapaz, A.Yates, Pidcock, Verona, Vanhoucke, Van Gils, Bizkarra, Bardet, Vine, Molard, Je.Herrada
Cima Alberto Fernandez (Gamoniteiru) - 20, 15, 10, 6, 4, 2
HC - 15, 10, 6, 4, 2
1st - 10, 5, 4, 2, 1
2nd - 5, 3, 1
3rd - 3, 2, 1
The KOM classification is always the hardest to predict in any Grand Tour. Sometimes you have the GC contenders taking the jersey home, sometimes you have riders who've focused on the jersey since the start of the race, other times you have riders who switched their ambitions throughout the race, and sense of opportunity, and focus means a lot here, whereas you can't just win it by being strong.
Plus, the list of brilliant climbers is big, a lot of riders targeting the GC will fail and may switch their focus into stage wins and by chance, some riders also start to target the polka dots. Usually you look into those who come without their best form or a free role, or domestique role to a GC outsider, and also those climbers who don't have the best consistency, alongside those who struggle in TT's are usually the best options.
My pick for it is Michael Storer, the winner of the recent Tour de l'Ain, he's a pure climber and one on the rise within the ranks, this season he's shown many times his quality and he's a rider who I believe doesn't come with overall ambitions, and within his team he'll surely have a lot of freedom to do his thing. Here in the Vuelta the points are neatly split unlike the Tour, so joining breakaways, going for the mountain stages looking for the big points on the main ascents but also always take advantage of the smaller climbs throughout the race, this can go in any direction.
White Jersey
⭐ Pidcock, Padun, Vansevenant, Storer, L.Hamilton, Vanhoucke, Mader
Here you've got some of the riders mentioned already beforehand, the fight shouldn't really be very big here as the main riders will be in different fights for the actual GC, nevertheless with a lot of quality youth it's always an interesting sub-plot to the race.
Route Preview: https://echelons.wixsite.com/website/post/vuelta-a-españa-route-preview-2
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