Red Jersey
Jumbo-Visma
Coming from a dominant Tour, where unfortunately a win fell for a different team, the "killer bees" are coming for another Grand Tour where defending champion Primoz Roglic is one of the main contenders to revalidate the title. If the preparation had been ideal no doubt he would be the main favourite but ever since leaving the Tour there has been no rest. It didn't come as a disapointment though as he had a great WC and also a LBL title, there's a chance he may come a bit overcooked into the race and not make it through the whole 18 days but he is the most complete rider on the startline and main favourite seeing how he rode the Tour but the team has other options being Tom Dumoulin one of them, having risen in form during the Tour and looked sharp in Liège, he's a strong stage-racer and will of course be a great alternative to Roglic but being a very climber-driven race Sepp Kuss who may have more freedom taking into account the work he has done but mostly because he has taken a rest before targeting the Vuelta. The team is very strong overall with George Bennett also present and Jonas Vingegaard also set to work in the climbs, Lennard Hofstede and Paul Martens set to do the protection work.
Main Domestiques: Tom Dumoulin; Sepp Kuss; George Bennett
Richard Carapaz
Carapaz' season has been one of the most changed within the whole peloton. After being the team's designated leader for a Giro defence he ended up in the Tour as a domestique after some last-minute changes, he wasn't in the form to target the race properly and didn't take a stage neither KOM home, how his form will be for the Vuelta isn't well known, he's a brilliant climber and has a great race here for him and a very strong team that should be fully focused around him. Firstly Chris Froome, I'm not sure how he'll do but I believe he will in the very minimum be able to be competitive and support the team well, he's a very experienced rider and one who can ride three weeks like no-one else so definetely can show himself during the race, and the Vuelta debutant Ivan Sosa should be the other crucial piece in the mountain setup, being a very strong pure climber very similar to Carapaz they can form a perfect combination. Dylan van Baarle and Andrey Amador will be very important support throughout the whole race, Michal Golas and Cameron Wurf will provide a lot of firepower and protection in flat roads and Brandon Rivera is coming in for a lot of important experience, where his support will be the most important I don't know but in this team every rider has an important role.
Main Domestiques: Ivan Sosa; Chris Froome
Thibaut Pinot
Now I know what you're thinking, him again? Well it's a mixed feeling I've got, on one side yes he's been through a lot of unsuccessful GC tilts, injuries and bad luck follow him a lot, but also the Tour is naturally a race of immense pressure for him. Pinot has succeded in the Vuelta in past few years, he remains one of the best climbers in the peloton, there's 3 stages less than normal and being ridden in October/November the temperatures will be cold just how he likes it. When you have a rider this strong you can't count him out no matter what is said, Pinot is a brilliant rider and if he is in the overall fight he has a very good team backing him up including young talent David Gaudu who is also one of the big wildcards for the race targeting it with no pressure but being a rider who loves steep gradients this is taylor-made for him, the team around them is mostly on rouleurs with Bruno Armirail probably to be the main support, Ladagnous, Ludvigsson, Seigle, Roux and Le Gac are the remaining support and stage-hunters for the French team.
Main Domestique: David Gaudu
Enric Mas
Movistar are the only WorldTour Spanish team and judging by their calendar selection it was always obvious the Vuelta was a big target in the list, with the team's experienced block targeting the Tour at first. Racing at home now it will be essentially the same riders but I think a sole leader can be elected in Enric Mas who had a brilliant Tour finishing 5th, super consistent and finishing very strong, he looks like the type of rider who can handle long long competitions and resist fatigue, he is sure to be the leader and has been runner-up here in the past, he may target the podium again and has Marc Soler and Carlos Verona as main support after their strong Tour performances, and then Alejandro Valverde starts with his typical role of possible GC contender but also stage-hunter and possibly points classification is a goal. It's a diverse team as always, Erviti and Rojas are road captains as always, Oliveira and Arcas will complete the squad.
Main Domestiques: Marc Soler; Alejandro Valverde
Alexander Vlasov
Coming in from Russia Alexander Vlasov is in paper not a Grand Tour debutant because he does have one 15-kilometer long race day in Italy, but there's no GT experience in his legs which also makes him a bit of a joker on this list, but his quality is undeniable and the team coming over to support him is really strong and complete, one of the strongest in fact. If Vlasov fails Ion Izagirre should pick things up, both could make a dangerous GC threat, the Basque abandoned the Tour after a crash as he looked really strong, besides Izagirre there are 3 more basques in the team including his brother, rain specialist Gorka Izagirre will enjoy the timing of this Vuelta, Omar Fraile and Alex Aranburu, a team built for stage wins but very capable of fighting for the overall. Luis Leon Sanchez and Merhawi Kudus who will give further support in the mountains specially the latter and to wrap it off is Dimitriy Gruzdev who should be road captain.
Main Domestiques: Ion Izagirre; Gorka Izagirre
Other names to consider:
Seeing how this Giro is going there is a lot of reasoning behind including some outsiders that can finish in the Top10 or even above! Obviously some of the names are mentioned and on bold already above as domestiques which can for sure be there, but more riders are capable of achieving this and the first I'd like to mention is Wout Poels, finally having freedom to target a GT something that hasn't happened in so long, he had a nasty injury at the Tour but was clearly coming into form in the final week, he likes steep climbs and has a good record at the Vuelta, leading Bahrain he can be an important rider to consider. Guillaume Martin is a bit of an unknown racing in Spain and also making a second Grand Tour in a season, he's usually a consistent rider in Grand Tours and in France he was showing some incredible legs for half of the race but the second half he looked to be in great dificulties. My hopes are that it was overcooking after having great form for a while (which for the record I support as he finished on the Dauphiné podium), with some rest and a climber-focused race he can definetely pull something off, let's see if he has it in his head though. Dan Martin is another, also another rider who came into form in the last week of the Tour, he likes the steepness nature of the climbs that will be faced but he doesn't look to have the same legs he's had at the peak of his career and for sure also not the same support, that support as in the past been given by David De la Cruz who is another wildcard for the race alongside possibly Davide Formolo who will be leading UAE, there aren't that many GC specialists present so they can surely surprise, Formolo loves the hilly stages of which there will be plenty. Mitchelton have Mikel Nieve and Esteban Chaves who took a secondary role at the Tour, here in Spanish roads they will surely feel more confortable the both of them, the time-trialing won't have that much influence in the GC which is their weak point, there's Felix Grossschartner who is of course a wildcard but a rider with a lot of quality for the climbs and also CCC's Jan Hirt is for me a rider who has the quality to be in the Top10 if he finds his best legs.
⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Roglic, Carapaz
⭐⭐⭐⭐ Dumoulin
⭐ Valverde, Froome, Poels, Sosa, G.Martin
It isn't an easy pick to go against Jumbo, they are the strongest team, but as the TT comes after all the mountains there won't be a place for them to mark big gaps. Those will come in the mountains and that's where Carapaz thrives, I think he had time to prepare properly for the Vuelta and didn't race much since the Tour unlike the Jumbo riders, with Sosa as someone who I expect big performances from, I think Ineos are ready to take command of a Grand Tour again.
Green Jersey
Sam Bennett
With so few sprint opportunities and no different point system in different stages it really isn't a balanced race for the sprinters. However they will be looking for this jersey and stage wins along the way, after an incredibly strong Tour where he took the points jersey over Sagan Bennett is coming to the Vuelta with a really strong leadout perfect for those flat sprints, with Michael Morkov here he is set for the sprints, however Shane Archbold, Jannik Steimle and also Ian Garrison are powerful riders who can do very well when pure power is needed to a leadout train. Other riders in the team can do even more work, but these alone make for a brilliant leadout!
Leadout: Michael Morkov; Shane Archold; Jannik Steimle; Ian Garrison; Zdenek Stybar
Pascal Ackermann
Ackermann isn't having the best of seasons but coming to the Vuelta was a big goal and he really has a strong team with him aswell to help him achieve some wins, Grossschartner is the only rider who will have the freedom to target stages or GC, the remainder of the team will have a role in helping the German in the fast finishes, Selig and Schwarzmann are his regulars and are a very effective leadout, the presence of Martin Laas can also help quite a lot, Schillinger and McCarthy will also play a role in these.
Leadout: Rudiger Selig; Michael Schwarzmann; Martin Laas; Jay McCarthy
Alejandro Valverde
Now he doesn't come as a sprinter or a rider for the fast finishes, but as every year he should likely be in contention, with so many hilly and mountain stages there will be few opportunities for the fast men to get points, Valverde can get points in some mountain stages for sure but hilly stages excluding breakaways, and some uphill finishes are very well suited for him and he has a good sprint to his arsenal.
Other names to consider:
Of course there is always a lot of importance given here over the climbers and the riders targeting the GC who can score over the course of more stages than the sprinters, Primoz Roglic is the obvious choice being a rider with a strong sprint, strong consistency and if a breakaway doesn't conquer a hilly/mountainous stage Roglic will likely get some good points, pure climbers Richard Carapaz and Thibaut Pinot are also good options for this classification in that field.
In the pure sprinter field there are riders like Jasper Philipsen, Matteo Moschetti and Jakub Mareczko who will be there in the fast sprints, the latter I wouldn't count for the classification but the other two could play a part if they thrive in the sprints.
Regarding some riders inbetween, some riders who can sprint but are also very strong in punchy climbs and breakaways, Alex Aranburu of Astana and Dion Smith of Mitchelton are great options who can score in a wide variety of days.
⭐ Ackermann, Aranburu, Smith, Philipsen, Dumoulin
All finishes - 25, 20, 16, 14, 12, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1
IS - 4, 3, 2
Sprinters won't have the saying we're used to in this classification, and breakaways will also balance this classification into lots of riders, but those constantly in the front places in mountains and hilly stages are the favourites for sure, Roglic and Valverde are for me the men to beat and from them Roglic is for me the strongest.
Blue Polka Dots Jersey
As I did in the Tour I won't exactly talk about specific names because let's face it there's so many contenders there's no actual favourites.
⭐ Wellens, Soler, Verona, Elissonde, G.Izagirre, Fraile, Sosa, Kuss, Peters, Bagioli
Tourmalet - 20,15,10,6,4,2
ES - 15,10,6,4,2
1st - 10,6,4,2,1
2nd - 5,3,1
3rd - 3,2,1
This classification is a lottery, a total lottery. Myabe 30 riders can take it, my pick though goes to Mikel Nieve, pure climber, breakaway specialist who doesn't usually target the GC, team may not have GC ambitions and a lot of freedom and support for this secondary but important jersey.
White Jersey
In attack of the white jersey are some riders mentioned above that will be in the GC fight. The Vuelta has gotten this classification instead of the combination so the young riders will have a good chance to have some glory the same way they are for the other races.
⭐ Gaudu, Bagioli
Enric Mas is the favourite and my pick to take white home, he's really strong and has showed a lot of consistency, Movistar have a good team that should back him up, it won't be easy to defeat him if he has the form he had in the Tour.
Route Preview: https://echelons.wixsite.com/website/post/vuelta-a-españa-route-preview-1
*At the time of posting EF have not announced their squad therefore are not mentioned.
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