Ineos took the win today as they attacked the race hard, it was one with plenty of attacks and for the pure climbers as expected as Adam Yates took a strong win after a flurry of attacks, dislodging Kuss near the final kilometer. Brilliantly Esteban Chaves finished second and Alejandro Valverde third, the Brit took the lead of the race where Ineos swarms the top places alongside João Almeida.
Positive: Ineos have put themselves in prime position, and one which will be very hard to turn around. Chaves and Valverde also had massive performances today, been a while that I haven't seen something like this from them.
Negative: Kruijswijk was the negative surprise for me, loosing 1:29 after a strong TT, Hindley and Dan Martin also tried but lost quite a lot of time. Some other strong climbers lost a lot of time but some perhaps intentionally, Uran and Soler more noticeably.
The Route
Today was hard but tomorrow is sure to be an even harder stage. Although shorter, the stage packs in almost 4000 meters of climbing and it's not an uni-climb stage, instead featuring 3 Pyrineen passes on the way to the finish like in Port Ainé. The day has quite a hard start with a slight tilt in the road early on together with an IS which may be used by the GC contenders, shortly after seeing then the Port de Toses with just 32Km in the legs, it's a 12.6Km long at 5.3% (including the little flat part after the categorized climb. It's final 3.7Km are at over 9% average which is quite a nasty uphill that in the bigger picture for the day doesn't even look that big.
The Port del Canto usually antecipates the final climb, it summits with 43.5Km to go and is 25.6Km long at 4.2%, it's quite a long climb that's split into several sections, it will be a nice warm-up for the final ascent.
Which is obviously Port Ainé, summiting at 1967 meters of altitude it'll be another high altitude finish, and a quite long climb featuring some very constant gradients throughout the whole climb, starting out hard and then having some little dips and rises compared to it's 6.6% average. A real mountain, gaps will happen.
The Weather
Temperatures will remain stable, the won't really be much wind but some gusts may be felt in exposed areas, from the southwest, a lot of variation in the final climb.
The Favourites
It'll be quite a different day than today surely. Today the GC teams let the gap grow massively but as expected some worked hard to bring everything back, tomorrow some riders that have lost time today will go for a stage win, the start of the stage isn't flat so it'll allow a strong group to go up the road, there will be multiple climbs and I don't expect anyone to really force the pace before the final climb as realistically no-one can raid Ineos. So that opens it up for breakaway chances, the possibilities are quite a lot specially seeing how today a lot of quality climbers lost time and likely some already on purpose. I would like to put to the fore Movistar, racing at home and with several riders who live and train in Catalunya/Andorra, they'll have good chances tomorrow if a breakaway succeeds as Marc Soler today looked to be saving himself, and the team has other options in Antonio Pedrero, Sergio Samitier and Carlos Verona. You've got some top climbers who will have freedom like Jai Hindley and Rigoberto Uran who have here their best chance to take a win here, you have David de la Cruz and Marc Hirschi for UAE who also may try something big tomorrow, you've got the Trek flyweight climbers Kenny Elissonde and Gianluca Brambilla, Ide Schelling for Bora and also Thomas de Gendt, who won here back in 2016 is a name to be considered.
In the peloton don't expect agressive, you'll have Ineos pacing the day, you may see BikeExchange (and possibly, if they don't get anyone in front, Movistar) pace in front, the thing is that I don't believe any team can cause much damage to Ineos, so they may just be waiting for the final climb to make their moves. Ineos will likely pace though, Carapaz at service of the team will make it quite hard for riders to get away, surely attacks will come though. BikeExchange had a massive ride from Esteban Chaves today, I don't expect the same tomorrow but I think he'll be more covered, Simon Yates and Lucas Hamilton will have some more freedom to go on the offensive, and the same you may see with Steven Kruijswijk and Sepp Kuss, assuming the Dutchman has better legs than today of course, but the stage suits him better.
You'll have more names who can get away and/or in the mix, mainly because of reputation they won't be as covered like Harm Vanhoucke or Giulio Ciccone who are some nice pure climbers, I expect similar from Hugh Carthy but sitting 7th he won't have as much freedom probably similar to Nairo Quintana. Obviously I can't discard Valverde after today's ride, but tomorrow's stage will be harder for him with a lot more constant climbing. João Almeida will keep riding at pace like he usually does, and then you have some random names like Michael Woods, Enric Mas and Wilco Kelderman who'll find their place there but I think they'll just have the legs to sit in the wheels.
Prediction Time
⭐ Pedrero, Verona, Hindley, Uran, Chaves, Kuss, Vanhoucke, Carthy, Quintana, Valverde
Think the win will go for a breakaway rider and Marc Soler is my favourite for it.
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