It was an exciting day's racing, despite the race situation not repeating itself from the last couple of years, the race was tested in the first Malhão climb with Vincenzo Nibali on the attack, on the Cerro dos Mortos later Schachmann and Bora made one too but all was left for the final climb, where Astana and then Almeida paced it, there were a couple of attacks by Amaro Antunes but in the end Miguel Angel Lopez times his move in the final 500 meters to take his first win of the season ahead of Dan Martin, Remco Evenepoel finished thrid and kept his yellow jersey ahead of the time-trial tomorrow.
Positive: Lopez takes a needed win after a little surprise being outran by several riders in Fóia, Evenepoel saved his lead and is surely heading for an expected GC win. Some nice performances but no-one else shockingly good.
Negative: No-one to note really.
The Route
Finally in the final day the riders will have with is likely the decisive day with a 20 Kilometer-long time-trial, this year making a loop along Lagoa. It is far from flat, there are two little climbs where the intermediate sprints are positioned, but overall there's a constant slight up-and-down throughout the lenght of the stage. It may be a dramatic finish to the race, with the biggest of gaps likely to be made here.
The Weather
There will be a moderate southeastern wind throughout the day, it will get a tiny little weaker throughout the afternoon but it shouldn't affect anyone.
The Favourites
It's a sneaky time-trial, not completely flat with some short pitches that can make some seconds of difference between some riders, it can change the results a bit, but overall most of it is on flat or rolling roads where the fast men will easily take over. It's not a technical but there are some nasty corners on course, the closing kilometers are for pure speed.
Remco Evenepoel comes as the big favourite perhaps though, after an "easy" time-trial win in San Juan and his apparent form he definetely is the representitive of the GC men, he should be able to keep his lead and take the overall, so the real fight is behind him. He's got 3 riders in the space of a single second, Max Schachmann should take second place overall, he's a fast rider who should also feature there in the top spots. Mollema, Wellens, Kamna and João Almeida are the riders that will profit from this stage, all have chances of moving up the overall.
As for the stage there are some riders that can make it a tight battle, Swiss champion Stefan Kung is a big powerhouse and the winner of last year's TT, so he will definetely have the pressure to perform. Riders like Ryan Mullen and Mikkel Bjerg have looked good throughout the week, there are chances to be put on them, Yves Lampaert gives Deceuninck another option to fight for the win, CCC have Patrick Bevin who doesn't yet look in good form after returning from a cardiac issue but could be an interesting rider, the Germans Nils Pollit and Jasha Sutterlin present another couple of chances for a top result.
And... Am I missing someone? Oh no, he's the one that's been missing from the screens. Perhaps on purpose, saving himself for tomorrow, but likely no-one but himself knows how tomorrow can play out, I'm talking about Rohan Dennis the ITT World Champion, he's looked in very good form in Tour Down Under but here he hasn't shown anything worth nothing, so we have to wait and see what he is capable of doing.
Prediction Time
⭐ Mullen, Dennis, Pollit, Almeida, Schachmann
But yeah, I'm going with Remco. I chose him for the overall and it doesn't seem like he's struggled with it, confidence is bursting and as he still has a jersey to defend he won't play it easy tomorrow. He knows he's fast and can take another win, I expect him to fulfill that expectation.
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