Phew, first preview first win of the season. On a sunny day and a chaotic run-up to the line, the lack of a proper leadout by anyone in the last kilometer allowed everything to bunch up again and upon seeing Viviani launch his sprint the Dutchman equaled and outpowered him with relative ease. Matteo Trentin finished third, Deceuninck now will have the yellow jersey for the second stage.
Positive: Deceuninck struggled to do the job for Jakobsen, but he showed great skill in positioning and timing.
Negative: Danny van Poppel and the Alpecin riders missed the sprint in what was an elusive chance.
The Route
Stage 2 provides the most important climbing test of the week, as the Alto da Fóia makes it's return for the 5th edition on a row. The stage mostly goes through some flat roads, not much going on as they start in Sagres, and they will head inland where they will find the final combination of climbs.
The Alto da Pomba will be the fourth in a series of increasingly hard (yet small) climbs, the gradients aren't low, the climbers' teams will surely put the pedal to the metal in an attempt to shred the peloton and prepare their leaders for a strong attack on the final climb.
The final climb is very familiar to those who watch the Algarve frequetly, once again the climb will be tackled via it's traditional side starting in the Monchique city center, and the climb is a very constant affair, with the gradients rarely diverging much from the 6% (ignore that 14% pitch in the end, VeloViewer bug). It's very exposed, the wind can always have a big influence on how the stage turns out, but either ways this is where the pure climbers need to make their mark.
The Weather
The wind won't be strong, but above the Fóia the gusts can be felt and there will be a tailwinds for most of it. Good news for those looking to create damage.
The Favourites
Definetely a climber viewpoint for tomorrow, the climbing quantity in that final section of the stage and the helping with will allow the attackers to make gaps early in the climb as they need. It isn't a steep one, powerful riders can be there or thereabouts, so let's look a bit into them through categories.
We should start with a dangerous duo of climbers Bauke Mollema and Vincenzo Nibali. Knowing the Italian, he has no pressure whatsoever coming into the race, he will be looking to test himself and isn't afraid to fail, he can indeed fail as it isn't usual to see him at his best in February but on the opposite side is Mollema, not only a strong climber but one with a strong sprint and that has been the case every year, open eye for them. The other pure climber noticed in the startlist is Astana, and luckily it is another team that is renouned for agressive fearless racing, the two teams can cause big damage, and Lopez is a rider that really likes these kind of gradients, but not to forget Luis Leon Sanchez who's also won here in 2016 so is definetely a good possibility. Dan Martin won't be particularly happy not to have support, but he's been showing great form and the explosive finale should be to his liking, he presents a great combination of skills for this finish.
Rui Costa racing in national roads alongside Jan Polanc should be yet another very interesting double, I think they don't have responsability to work/chase and that can be vital to their chances, Costa has showed tremendous legs in Saudi Arabia and this finish should also be to his liking as an explosive climber, can it be this year that it gets it all right? The Portuguese teams nevertheless have some names to show, the list perhaps not as big as it was before the stage started, but Vicente Garcia de Mateos of Aviludo and the W52 trio of home heros Amaro Antunes and João Rodrigues, alongside Edgar Pinto can be particularly motivated to perform strong here.
On the more defensive side, the time-trialist side so to say, some riders that will want to keep it compact and not push the straws will likely feature INEOS, with Dylan van Baarle not starting today they lost a big contender, so with Rohan Dennis and Geraint Thomas in the lineup they do best in following wheels, their terrain to make moves is in the final stage. Youngster Remco Evenepoel won't have the team to do any moves so all logic stands on him being on the defensive, despite his team having the responsability to do the standard work for having the lead.
Several riders are more in the puncheur category, but all can climb very well and may also have their strong chance of glory, Bora has a very strong squad with Max Schachmman coming in, Felix Grossschartner is surely a big underdog and can be used in several different tactics and also Lennard Kamna can play an important role, the road will tell what they do for sure. Simon Geschke after a strong display Down Under will be looking to keep on a strong roll, Vuelta a Murcia winner Xandro Meurisse can say exactly the same thing and Tim Wellens is a rider that is used to starting off strong, so let's see if he keeps his tradition.
Prediction Time
⭐ Schachmann, Nibali, Geschke, Wellens, LL.Sanchez
After seeing Lutsenko/Vlasov, now Fuglang... it seems as if every rider from Astana that recently came from Teide came in great form. This and Lopez' history in these mid-gradient climbs leave me really wandering about his chancs, I go for Superman tomorrow!
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