Although attack attempts in the winds were for a moment successful it ended up being a day for a bunch sprint after everything came back together, it was an exciting and fast finale which ended in a familiar way with Sam Bennett being perfectly lead out and taking another dominant win, beating Elia Viviani and Pascal Ackermann.
Positive: Vivivani definitely getting up to form in this race, with a good sprint today, Deceuninck getting another good win.
Negative: Nothing to note.
The Route
Pan-flat, appropriate end to the race.
The finish is also quite simple, no point in going complex, long road until just over the flamme rouge, from there on it's an equally wide staightforward road.
The Weather
Another day with moderate to strong wind, from the northwest, it will be a bit dangerous in some sections, but I think at this point it's very unlikely there will be big splits, there aren't many exposed sections tomorrow and the final third of the stage has a block headwind. As for the te finish it will be a bit covered but if the wind sweeps through the road it'll be in a headwind.
The Favourites
I believe in another bunch sprint and tomorrow's may be a bit different seeing how the headwind will make for a little less favourable sprint for the powerhouse sprints. Still, the story will be very similar because the truth is with a stage as flat as the desk I'm currently writing on no-one will get to the final kilometers very fresh, all of the teams will be fighting to be in front but the best leadouts should come to the front as the roads are wide and the good ones have so far avoided being blocked, to my surprise.
Caleb Ewan hasn't had at all a successful race but tomorrow he'll have a much better opportunity, the sprint will be good for him, he just needs to nail positioning. Positioning will be tricky though, because starting up from the front isn't exactly the best for tomorrow and Sam Bennett may not have the advantage he's been having. Furthermore Elia Viviani and Fernando Gaviria will be more favoured tomorrow seeing how they are the kind of sprinter who's aerodynamics is a major weapon.
As for the other powerhouse sprinters the strategy should all be the same, start sprint at most in 3rd position, ideal should be 4th or 5th, take advantage of some slipstream and come around in the final 125 meters. Pascal Ackermann, David Dekker, Cees Bol and Phil Bauhaus the the main names on this list. I'm not sure where I would put Giacomo Nizzolo but for sure he has another good opportunity again tommorrow, he will want to get rid of the slight disapointment.
Andre Greipel, Ricardo Minali, Emils Liepins and the Mitchelton duo of Kaden Groves and Luka Mezgec will also be looking for a good result and can easily get in the Top10, positioning and timing will be more important than usual tomorrow and getting perfect slipstreaming can bring in some riders to a top result.
Prediction Time
⭐ Dekker, Bol, Bauhaus, Greipel, Groves, Liepins
I'll give the pocket rocket a chance. He hasn't really been close to a win so far, and Bennett has been the dominating sprinter, but I don't think Bennett will take yet another win, and tomorrow's won't suit him as well.
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