It was a calmer day in the desert. Ineos worked all day long to keep the breakaway in touching distance and that made the difference when in the climb to Jebel Jais, they worked but didn't have the horsepower to do any damage. It was a climb done by pace as expected, attacks came but not from either Yates or Pogacar who put their nose in the wind in the sprint only, finishing second and third respectively, but the win that came to young Dane Jonas Vingegaard who took advantage of a brief slow down in the group in the final kilometer to fly off from the group, catch late break survivor Lutsenko and sprint on to a big stage win. The GC remained relatively the same.
Positive: Vingegaard taking a big win, some riders had a much better day than in Jebel Hafeet, Jumbo capitalized on it. Skelmose finishing 12th and keeping his 6th place in the overall was another very impressive performance.
Negative: Ineos worked all day long and set up for Yates in the climb, of course it wasn't a suiting climb to attack but he didn't even test Pogacar.
The Route
Another one. 363 meters of ascent is one of the lowest values of any race in the calendar, but something that will heavily be enjoyed by the sprinters.
The final straight is over 3 kilometers long, it's not a technical finish at all, so timing will be crucial as all of the teams and leadouts should have an opportunity to put themselves in front.
The Weather
There will be strong again. Coming from the northwest, it will be a very tense and dangerous day as the riders go through Dubai but also have a small trip to the desert. 85-65Km to go is the most dangerous exposed area, but throughout the day several of those sections will appear. Regarding the finish, the run-up to the final kilometers will be on a headwind, but the final 3Km will be quite exposed and a direct crosswind, splits can very well appear.
The Favourites
It's going to be a round 2 for the sprinters. Understandibly, some may not make it to the end, and unfortunately the wind may once again favour the powerhouses and put into dificulty those that have their advantage in aerodynamics. Yes I'm referring specifically to Caleb Ewan, this isn't exactly what he'll love, he's obviously still a big favourite but some riders will be in front of him in terms of favouritism. The possibility of echelons is important because that can make for a decisive split and eliminate some of the contenders, however Sam Bennett may be the man to beat as he was the fastest in the last sprint and being in Deceuninck is regularly a big bonus in the wind-swept stages. But challengers will come aplenty.
David Dekker for a start as done really good on the opening stage on the wind, and he's done just as good in the bunch sprint. The Dutchman in my opinion is more than proved as a top sprinter, because he already had the pure power but also shows the skills of a sprinter. Fernando Gaviria, like Dekker, is in a team quite focused on the GC which may pose an obstacle but at the same time he should be sharp in the front, and then you've got plenty of rogue names, some of them with a team very focused on just taking care of their fast men, Matteo Moschetti and Phil Bauhaus can also be put into this category. Giacomo Nizzolo is a prime example with no GC contender, the team will be eyeing the stage win possibility, Elia Viviani should have similar support, Cees Bol hasn't been at the expected level but for sure they will once again try to mix it up and get a sprint finish for their powerhouse Dutchman. Pascal Ackermann should have a little support for the GC riders but for sure they'd prefer a stage win.
Outsiders then come aplenty, Andre Greipel for example if he can hang on with the front group, chaotic sprints aren't for him anymore, but in a smaller group he could find his place, specially with a tailwind flat sprint. If echelons are indeed decisive it can be like the opening stage, with a group filled with some minor sprinters, some rouleurs, some leadout men that can be there in a sprint close to an elusive win.
Prediction Time
⭐ Bauhaus, Viviani, Ackermann, Greipel, Moschetti
He's hit the pole twice, he's clearly fighting for the points classification and I can just tell how hungry he is to win. I've been following David Dekker for some year already, it's no surprise to see how well he's doing, he looks to be in great form and definitely has the power to take a win, I'm going with him for tomorrow.
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