It was a calmer day finally in the peloton and even the finish wasn't that chaotic, the wind finally let the peloton enjoy a nice rolling day. The sprint was lead-out by several teams, Bora was the team having Ackermann in pole position but he and Bol launched the sprint too early, Sam Bennett came from behind and took a dominant win in front of David Dekker and Caleb Ewan.
Positive: Bennett taking his win confirming Deceuninck's potential to lead him out, Dekker having bad luck with being covered by Bennett, could've won but second place is still a great result.
Negative: Bol and Ackermann launched too early, but I guess it happens sometimes, nothing really to note.
The Route
Stage 5 has the final of two climbs in this whole race. It isn't as pan-flat as the others, although not a proper climb the beginning of the stage is slightly uphill. It will be a day throughout the mountains, but it will only go up one in the end of the stage.
That climb is the Jebel Jais. 20.6 kilometers long at 5.4% and by the looks of the profile you could almost say it's also it's maximum grade. Now seriously, it's perhaps the concept of a constant climb, it's a climb that rises very slightly at grades of 4 and 5% within the roads of the Al Hajar mountains. The gradients slowly rises until the final 2.2Km where the gradients go up to 7% until the line. It's not a climb for attackers but one for the diesel engines, the final couple kilometers allow some attacks that can gain some seconds though, but only someone on a very bad day will seriously suffer and loose minutes.
The Weather
Finally a day with low wind. It'll make for less nerves in the peloton. If it weren't for the wind possibly the break could succeed on Jebel Hafeet, UAE don't seem interested in chasing and put bonifications available for Yates and Almeida, but that shouldn't be decisive, easy terrain to chase specially with Deceuninck and Ineos' powerhouses.
The Favourites
It's a day for the climbers, of course. Ineos still have a chance to win this race and they will try, a bad day can hit anyone and Ineos no doubt have the team to make big moves (although there's very little possible strategy on this climb. The day will probably be calmly paced by UAE and Ineos, the British team will surely start pacing on the final climb, put Ganna's big engine to pace the first third. Posteriorly, pacing won't do Pogacar much harm, Yates has time to gain back so the lives of Rivera and Martinez will surely go on the attack around 10Km to the finish. Some more moves will come, UAE will try to control things with Formolo mainly until a big name makes a move and everything blows up. Yates will attack, he has no other choice (both for GC and stage), Pogacar will sit on the wheels. But this climb is much less steep, others can take advantage of this and get away, tactics will matter a lot tomorrow.
The main battle will with no doubt be Adam Yates vs Tadej Pogacar. Like last year, this duo is having an agressive fight for the overall, tomorrow is a completely different climb, one that will suit Pogacar better and with no severe heat or big gradients there's little space for Yates to surprise. But he will try with team tactics playing a big role, however there are more riders on great form who can seize this. João Almeida has little to loose but 40 seconds advantage to Chris Harper and Neilson Powless may not be enough if he has a really bad day, I expect him to ride at his own pace like he usually does, truth is for all 3 of these names the climb is very suited, they all like to ride their pace and aren't very explosive, the smooth and constant grades will favour them. Harper should have support of Kuss who doesn't have such a suiting climb and GC is an ambition, but for sure he'll have green card to make an opportunist move if the chance pops up. As for Powless it's the same with Higuita, but as the American should have his GC safe I reckon Higuita will have freedom to fight for the stage again, specially as a sprint finale would suit him.
From 12th place in the GC and back there's the remaining group of stage hunters. With a less selective climb and much less explosive some could come to terms and ride strong, Vincenzo Nibali is in solid form and he'll love this aerobic effort, he finished alongside Ben Hermans in Jebel Hafeet and both of them will have a big preference for tomorrow, then from the riders you've got in front some lightweights may not be as strong, but if it all comes down to the final couple kilometers for sure we can see Emanuel Buchmann make a big move, he is thankfully back to form after last season's problems. Harm Vanhoucke also finished really strong on that stage, will be interesting to see how he does, further more to the back there are some riders I can mention if they have a much better day, Bahrain for a starters as they have a really strong squad, I have reasons to believe Caruso may be suffering from his crash in the opening stage but the team will still protect him for GC reasons, however with Wout Poels, but mainly (because of the type of climb) Jack Haig could be complete wildcards in the front, the veterans Domenico Pozzovivo and Alejandro Valverde could possibly make a comeback too.
Prediction Time
⭐ Kuss, Harper, Vanhoucke, Nibali, Haig
Second win for Pogacar. I think others may appear with opportunist moves that may put into question the win of Pogacar or Yates. But I think Pogacar can control all the attacks and then focus on the win at some point, he's strong enough to do it and get a win in a sprint.
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