Filippo Ganna filled in his shoes and won the second stage of the UAE Tour after yet another impressive performance in the time-trial, winning by a confortable margin in front of EF's Stefan Bisseger and Mikkel Bjerg. After a great TT Tadej Pogacar is the new race leader.
Positive: Ganna taking his expected win, third of the season, Pogacar going into the lead already before the mountains and being in a great position to take the win he ambitions.
Negative: Unfortunately the Alpecin-Fenix team had to abandon the race due to a positive Covid case within the squad. Mathieu van der Poel, the leader of the race, didn't start today and is unsure wether the opening weekend is still possible.
The Route
Pan-flat until the base of Jebel Hafeet. Guess it makes my job easier eh.
The climb itself isn't brutal, but as we've seen in the past it's more than enough to make real differences. It is quite normal to see the peloton come in with incredible pace as everyone usually enters the climb fresh and teammates are there aplenty, the middle 7.5Km of the climb average a constant 8% and on a very wide road these are more gruelling then they appear. Usually the decisive attacks come around there, with 2300 meters to go the climb flattens out a little, features some steep sections in the middle though, and in the final kilometer it goes down a bit until the final kick up to the line, that as always includes the sneaky hairpin bend in the final hundred meters.
The Weather
As Will Smith would say, "that's hot". 30 degree temperatures in the blazing sun is expected but perhaps a shock to the system of some, the final climb will be hard. As for the wind it's equally as dangerous, as we've seen in the opening stage it doesn't take much road to cause chaos, the wind will come from the north which means at least the start of the stage should be a little bit calmer as the riders go through Al-Ain and emerge in a headwind, however the section between kilometers 71-91 will have a strong crosswind from the left. There will be a race for that turn, and 20 kilometers is more than enough to split it. Afterwards there's a long return to Al-Ain with a tailwind which will favour any attacking group as it will be a constant until the finish. The final climb will itself be blown by a strong tailwind, favours early attackers as the pace is easier to keep, and a new climbing record is very possible.
The Favourites
This is a race with several sub-plots now. We have the fight for the win that includes 3 riders, the fight for the Top10 which includes several of those who survived the echelons on the opening day, and you have the fight for the stage which includes plenty of climbers that have already lost their chance to fight for a strong GC place.
Let's start off with the fight for the win. Tadej Pogacar has already put himself up in prime position, his time-trial was very strong and he is with no doubt in great form, he will love this climb aswell as it suits him perfectly (very similar to Peyresourde too, remember), the team is here with a clear goal and he should have support seeing the good set of climbers but also how well the team rode in the wind already. To challenge him are two riders, first is João Almeida who's a mere 5 seconds away from him. Bonifications are enough to get the lead from the Slovenian, and he does pack a very good sprint, Almeida isn't exactly the most agressive rider as he is rather a big diesel engine, I'm not sure he can distance Pogacar but he is capable of beating him, besides Deceuninck have Mattia Cattaneo (3rd GC) and Fausto Masnada (13th GC) as secondary cards to play which will put Almeida more into ease, Deceuninck may try to blow it up before the climb though... Lastly Adam Yates, the defending champion, has to try something. Last year he took a whole 1:03 minutes on Pogacar on this very same climb, and he was the sole rider of Ineos to make it in the front Echelon on the opening day. This says a lot about his legs, however he lost 36 seconds today to Pogacar and that won't be easy to take back, but he has a strong team both for the wind and for the climbs, he's got Daniel Martinez who rode brilliantly today and maybe Ivan Sosa (if he survives the chaos) as potential stage winners within his team aswell.
Some more riders will be looking to get a good GC place, some of them of great quality who will try to hold on for as long as possible, Damiano Caruso who sits 11th in GC will surely be going up quite a lot tomorrow, Jumbo's Chris Harper, Cofidis' Rubén Fernandez and EF's Neilson Powless have also got a really good opportunity to net a brilliant GC result and should have support of their teams to do it.
The list then goes on with several men that are out of the GC fight. Some, as previously mentioned, may have domestique duties, some may not even get to the final climb in the main group, however all must be considered. The Bahrain team should focus on Caruso, however Wout Poels and Jack Haig are in great form and looking for a strong win for themselves, you've got the Bora duo of Patrick Konrad and Emanuel Buchmann, Astana's Alexey Lutsenko who is hoping for vengeance after he lost a stage here to Pogacar last year in the very final meters of the stage, Sergio Higuita (who may have to be supporting Neilson Powless, but in theory should have freedom if he makes it to the climb), Sepp Kuss who despite having Chris Harper in a great place on the overall, should have green card to shoot his shot and try to get success of his own, former winner on this climb Alejandro Valverde who packs a mean sprint and knows this climb like the back of his hand surely, Lotto's Harm Vanhoucke who did incredibly well in the beginning of last year's Giro and should fare well in 1-week races, and lastly the two Italian friends Vincenzo Nibali and Domenico Pozzovivo who are big jokers for the stage but they need to first make sure they reach Jebel Hafeet in position to contest the win.
Prediction Time
⭐ Kuss, Poels, Haig, Buchmann, Higuita, Vanhoucke, Valverde, Pozzovivo
He's a cannibal. A great climber with a great sprint, seems perfectly fit to take the win in every scenario. Still I believe he will attack to increase his safety, if he can of course.
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