In what was a little hilly stage it were still the sprinters that ruled the day in Hatta Dam, a late attack by Campenaerts and Conci threatened the peloton but it all came back together for a bunch sprint where like last year, the nasty gradients saw Caleb Ewan emerging as the winner, beating Sam Bennett who tried to surprise taking the lead in the sprint, and Arnaud Démare. Ewan is the new leader.
Positive: Lotto did a perfect leadout and the Australian capitalized on this chance. There were some good performances, but from the GC men no-one won time on the competition, all remains equal.
Negative: Hindley, Visconti, Hagen, Muhlberger are riders who lost time and could be in for the GC fight, also Laurens de Plus didn't start the stage making for a loss for Jumbo-Visma.
The Route
Stage 3 is the first of the climbing stages. Well, uhum, let me correct, the ______/ stages. Not unfamiliar though as the climb to Jebel Hafeet has been present in every edition of this race since it was created back in 2015, and it features a strong list of past winners and this year should be the same.
(*ignore the 20%, it's a GPS bug)
The stage is totally flat until the base of the final climb which in itself is pretty constant for most of the way, the final kilometer then has a little dip before a final technical kick to the line where sprint is very important in case the winning rider doesn't come in solo. It's not an easy affair, it's a climb that regularly sees gaps, however the winning move may not happen if it's not an attacked climb in the middle.
The Weather
A lot of heat, temperatures going above 30 degrees and that will really be felt in that final climb, there's no shade whatsoever and those who can't deal with the heat will have a bit of a shock to the system. Not even the wind will cool the riders down, it won't be very noticeable, a southwestern breeze will mean for a bit of a headwind.
The Favourites
Now, the heat can play a big part on the day so we have to look at that. Other than that, it's a very flat day, no climbing whatsoever before Jebel Hafeet, so the power riders will be benefited by this situation.
This would at first glance the likes of Alexey Lutsenko, having a strong past in the Middle East, where he's even won the Green Mountain stage in Oman, it's safe to say the grades won't be affecting the Kazakh and surely the heat aswell, he's not a pure climber and in these one-effort stages he's proven to be quite strong, the gradients aren't too hard and he packs a sprint if necessary, he needs to be looked into. In the same scenario I would consider Wilco Kelderman and Jesús Herrada, both also pack a strong sprint aswell.
In the pure climber set it's hard to ignore the obvious. Mega talent Tadej Pogacar, he's been flying and chances are tomorrow he'll do it again, clearly in great form the Slovenian is widely touted as the man to beat, so who can beat him in this field? Bora will perhaps have the most direct answer as they bring not one, not two but a trio of climbers looking for success. Both Patrick Konrad and Rafal Majka have the legs to be within the first, but perhaps the hopes will lie more on Emanuel Buchmann who's made a great progress over the years and comes into 2020 as one of the strongest climbers in the peloton, one who is very tactically astute and has the power not just the stature. Present in the Top10 today and looking very sharp are two lightweight climbers, the first being David Gaudu was third here overall last year with great legs, I'm unsure he is in the same form but he's definetely got the quality, and the other is Adam Yates who is making his debut but will like this climb aswell, it suits him.
Last year's winner in this summit, tough call, Alejandro Valverde isn't coming in the race with the best indications. The climb suits him very well but if he doesn't have his best legs he's not going home with a win. The Trek Italian duo Giulio Ciccone and Gianluca Brambilla is another giving great indications, and there is a lot of expectations on Ciccone's performance as he is one of the most rapidly evoluting climbers. Wout Poels of Bahrain will have a great deal of reputation here I hope, he's done well in this climb in the past, there's CCC with Ilnur Zakarin who's performed here aswell.
Some other riders like Domenico Pozzovivo, James Knox and Eddie Dunbar may also feature in the Top10 if they're on a good day, it's left for them to make the effort now. There shouldn't be a risk of breakaway success.
Prediction Time
⭐ Konrad, Valverde, Poels, Zakarin, Kelderman, Herrada, Gaudu
I'm going with a win from the wonder kid though, will try to make it a 3 for 3 correct predictions in this race, I think he'll attack for the win with 4Km to go and solo to victory.
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