Mathieu van der Poel won what was an incredible stage in the UAE, one that right from the gun was blown away by crosswinds and made for what is already a decisive selection of riders that will be fighting for the GC. Deceuninck and UAE were mostly represented in the front grou, Deceuninck attacked several times in the final kilometers, but the faith of the group was in a sprint finish between those that survived the opening third of the stage, and Mathieu van der Poel showed just how good of a rider he is, easily taking the sprint win in front of David Dekker and Michael Morkov.
Positive: Several climbers had themselves in the front group, the 3 main contenders in my opinion included, Pogacar and Almeida even got an extra 3 seconds on the competition, but also Adam Yates, Damiano Caruso (who crashed in the final meters), Chris Harper, Fausto Masnada, Neilson Powless, Mattia Cattaneo and Ruben Fernandez (the latter two lost some seconds in the end). Dekker and Morkov having really good individual results aswell.
Negative: All the GC riders who missed the front group essentially, they are out of the overall contention.
The Route
It's not exactly a straightforward time-trial but it's pan-flat, it's no doubt a chance for the pure powerhouses, and a route where the pure time-trialists can show their dominance.
The Weather
Strong northern wind. But let's be honest I think no-one will have any advantage, the circuit is twisty and the wind will come from all sides, may be dangerous for those deep section wheels.
The Favourites
It's going to be a simple one, have a lot of pure power and have confidence in the bike and the treacherous conditions. There is one man who's been undefeated in the last 7 time-trials he's raced and he is the main favourite to make it 8, Filippo Ganna here has an almost perfect route for him and is the man to beat.
Competition? Well it can come from many sides, some big men spent a lot of bullets today but also have some GC motivation and possibility of leading the race, those will be Tadej Pogacar and João Almeida firstly who are tied in the GC and will be fighting for every single second, and although he didn't seem too concerned, Mikkel Bjerg will also be eyeing tomorrow for a good result as he's been continuously evolving as a road racer, but is yet to show the immense potential he's got as an (almost) dominating TT rider. Mathieu van der Poel himself sometimes also rides quite well, unsure of how strong he'll ride tomorrow but he'll be motivated to keep his leader's jersey.
And there are others who've saved their legs today. Unfortunately for them, Ganna is somewhat included, but riders like Max Walscheid, Thomas de Gendt, Lawson Craddock, Jos van Emden, Michael Hepburn, Stefan Bisseger, Matteo Sobrero and Matthias Brandle will be looking to surprise. Getting a win is a very tough ask, however windy TT's can cause surprises and opportunists are aplenty here.
Prediction Time
⭐ Pogacar, van Emden, Walscheid, Hepburn, Brandle, Craddock, van der Poel, Bisseger, Sobrero
I think it's an easy one. Of course I can be proved wrong but unless something very weird happens the victory is likely going to Filippo Ganna, not only is he in great form and in an incredible streak, the short and flat route is also pretty ideal for him.
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