Giving a continuation for the racing in the Middle East and also kickstarting the WorldTour racing outside of Australia is the UAE Tour in it's 6th edition. The Arabic race has over the years gained reputation as it did an increase in number of race days, and it usually features a whole host of top-class climbers and sprinters, and this year is no exception, so let's see what lies ahead.
The Route
The race starts off as we know the UAE to be, pan flat. No climbing whatsoever just pure flatlands that could be very exposed to the wind. It's a trecherous stage, the start and finish will be in Dubai and well covered but nerves will be high as they travel through the desert.
Stage 2 is a lumpy affair, with 2800 meters of climbing in the wide and steep roads of the UAE hills it's not a surprise to see this stage back as the Hatta dam has become an inconic finish not just of the rac but I'd say of the season. Despite being hilly the sprinters usually make it through, there's some rough patches with a little over 10Km to go that will make life hard for everyone but the leadout to the final climb is usually mad, and it's a place where sprinters, climber and puncheurs all have almost the same odds of taking the win. The stage ends on those brutal 20% ramps but it's so short that it ends up balancing the riders' chances, bonifications can be important for the GC riders, and the same can be said for little splits.
Stage 3 is the first of the climbing stages. Well, uhum, let me correct, the ______/ stages. Not unfamiliar though as the climb to Jebel Hafeet has been present in every edition of this race since it was created back in 2015, and it features a strong list of past winners and this year should be the same. The stage is totally flat until the base of the final climb which in itself is pretty constant for most of the way, the final kilometer then has a little dip before a final technical kick to the line where sprint is very important in case the winning rider doesn't come in solo.
Stage 4 is flat flat flat, more of the same. But this one won't be ridden in the desert, wind won't play such factor, will all be on the roads of Dubai, the finish isn't technical aswell with the exception of a corner that really seems to have no business there.
Stage 5 will go back to Jebel Hafeet. BACK TO JEBEL HAFEET?! Well yeah so it would seem some last-minute changes left the race with two equal stages that have an equal profile pretty much. They'll both finish atop the same climb so what you saw two days prior get ready for a second dose. The riders will know exactly what to expect, as for us we can only think of what can be changed this time around.
Flat. But this stage feels more like a traverse through the desert, around 90 Kilometers of it will be ridden in a straightforward road with nothing to see and then a long circuit in the also fairly straightforward roads of Al Mirfa. The sprinters will have another chance but it doesn't quite end here does it.
Because the closing day will feature more of the same. A finish in Abu Dhabi will close off the week of racing, another sprint is bound to happen so the fast men will be happy, wind shouldn't play a part once again, and for the GC men it's all about keeping what they worked for safe.
The Weather
The first three stages will be under intense heat, the fourth will be under intense WIND! From there on the days will be a bit windy and less hot, it could actually make for quite exciting crosswind racing.
GC Contenders
It is a very interesting set of riders lining up in UAE, I can split them into several different groups to make it more organized. I'll start with the riders that have already ridden powerfully this season and are likely the main contenders. Tadej Pogacar is likely the one everyone will be looking towards after his amazing run in Valencia, having Diego Ulissi and Davide Formolo behind him, seeing the race is such a goal for the team there is no doubt he's going to go all in. So setting him as the man to watch, behind him there's the Bora trio, Emanuel Buchmann who stormed into the season in Mallorca with a strong win, Patrick Konrad and Rafal Majka themselves are strong enough to be in the fight themselves but they haven't yet shown evidence of their form this year. And mentioning groups I'll have Astana as another main reference, the Astana riders have been flying and Alexey Lutsenko is the one leading, he's evolved as a climber in the last few years and this race could be a big step for him in the WT level, he's flown in the Middle East before and he is carrying great form from Provence, and has Gorka Izagirre and Oscar Rodrigues. I'll also integrate Giulio Ciccone on this list, he is debuting in Trek colours this Sunday but he's raced Trofeo Laigueglia for the national team and took a convincing win.
On another side I'm mentioning some riders that are looking to prove they still have it. This race marks the return of Chris Froome after his crash in the Dauphiné last year, no-one is yet sure if he'll be leading the team or the plans may go through Eddie Dunbar, there's Alejandro Valverde who's been close but hasn't yet won anything this year and on the real climbing challenge in Valencia was very below expectations. Also, after his comeback to racing I'll also be excited to see Domenico Pozzovivo in action, the Italian may struggle in the forecasted high winds for this week but will be looking to prove himself on the climbs.
There's some strong riders who are starting their season year, Adam Yates inclusively who usually starts off strong his seasons and could play a big factor, there's Laurens de Plus who's been up in Teide and is coming into a season where his spot in Jumbo may encounter some issues, as he definetely has the quality to lead a team but here fancies one of the few chances he'll get to lead the team. The other one is Ilnur Zakarin who's finished here second some years ago, the Russian showed last year he still has brilliant legs on his best day but needs to work on his consistency, he has Jan Hirt and Victor de la Parte as backups or second option.
In extra mentions there are some strongs climbers still left, with last year's third placed David Gaudu, he doesn't yet look very sharp but is always to consider, Sunweb duo Wilco Kelderman and Jai Hindley, the first had great legs in Provence and the Australian has net the Sun Tour with a couple stage wins. There's Wout Poels representing Bahrain, James Knox bringing Deceuninck's GC hopes, Jesús Herrada for Cofidis, Carl Fredrik Hagen for Lotto Soudal and Giovanni Visconti as a possibility for Vini Zabù.
The Sprinters
On the sprinter side there is a MEGA startlist, and with four stages directly pointed towards the fast men (plus Hatta Dam for some) it's quite easy to understand why, the flatlands of the Arabic peninsula are ideal for the heavier riders.
From where to start?! Just so much quality, Deceuninck have their new prime sprinter Sam Bennett lining up with newly crowned New Zealand NC Shane Archbold and Michael Morkov as premier leadout men, Fernando Gaviria comes from his San Juan hattrick of wins alongside Max Richeze, Pascal Ackerman is coming with his personal leadout men Selig and Schwarzmann. Caleb Ewan comes after another impressive stint in Australia, Dylan Groenewegen comes with the same motivation likely from Valencia, and Arnaud Démare is also present with his leadout men Jacopo Guarnieri and Ramon Sinkeldam.
Sometimes keeping it short is the best, there's no-one that stands out in such a list. And the impressive thing is to see the amount of B-tier sprinters that are coming in with wins already in the bag.
There's Max Walcheid flying in from Malaysia where he won in Langkawi two times, Rudy Barbier who won the opening stage in San Juan, Attilio Viviani who did the same feat in Amissa Bongo, yet another man who had that feat was Sunweb's Alberto Dainese. Then there's Luka Mezgec who's successfully came back from injury in Valencia and is looking solid, Jakub Mareczko who came very close to winning in Provence and is carrying good speed, and finally Bahrain with Mark Cavendish, although there's no clear expectations to set on him, Marco Haller is a solid sprinter and should perhaps feature more consistently in the end.
Prediction Time
⭐ Valverde, Ciccone, Poels, Dunbar, De Plus, Konrad, Majka, Hindley
My call for the overall though is on Tadej Pogacar. The way he rode in Valencia, the focus the team has here, his versatility in the climbs adding to the form he's bringing makes him an almost unbeatable stage-racer. If he can hold it upright this week I have great confidence in the Slovenian to win the UAE Tour.
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