We've got a very big and important month of cycling for the Italian calendar and it begins tomorrow in the Trofeo Laigueglia, a race usually disputed and important in the PCT calendar but another one that's profiting for the smaller early-season calendar this year, and is having a mega startlist!
The Route
3000 meters of climbing. It's no easy deal, the race takes place in the Ligurian coast, by the Ligurian coast, and on the edge of the Ligurian Alps, so yeah the race focuses on this particular area, one that is very beautiful for cycling and is frequently used by cycling's Nice/Monaco base. But now to the facts that will actually have a meaningful impact in the race, the final circuit is where the race will be decided but before that there are a couple of longer climbs in the Cimma Paravena (6.7Km, 5.7%, 133Km to go) and Testico (7.2Km, 4.5%, 79.5Km to go), those will give a little opportunity for the teams of the climbers to set a tough pace and wear out the more explosive riders, and will add to the fatigue that will come from this 203-kilometer long classic.
Although the riders will only go through the finish line once, that's because the riders turn into the circuit right before getting to the line. 4 laps of a 10.9-kilometer long circuit, and that is quite a tough one. It begins with this climb, not the hardest of hills, but repeated in quick succession (and as seen in previous years) big gaps can be made. The gradients go up to 12%, and in the final lap it summits with 9.1Km to go, followed by a technical descent and a little rise to Capo Mele, a quite famous climb.
Quite famous you ask? Yes, Capo Mele is the first of the Tre Capi, the three little ascents that are ridden before Cipressa in Milano-Sanremo, but not in the same direction here. It isn't tough but again any piece of road can make difference in a finale like this, in the last lap it'll summit with 2.6Km to go, and from there on it's a straightforward slight descent into the finish.
The Weather
Nice gentle temperatures of late winter and a slight breeze coming from the sea. Shouldn't affect the race much.
The Climbers
With the big increase of quality in the startlist that may change the outcome of the race quite significantly. Never in recent year has such a list of climbers been present at the race, and although the final circuit doesn't feature any big climb, the repitition and general climbing aspect of the race makes it one that'll suit those who've got good legs to climb at a constant high pace, and then have a little sharp edge that can be enough to win the race, like Giulio Ciccone did last year. Trek come with defending champion Giulio Ciccone and they have a brilliant squad looking to reafirm that title (although Ciccone won for the national team last year), there are 4 riders that can in theory take this win, having Nibali and Brambilla as brilliant descenders (Brambilla specifically showing tremendous form), but also Ciccone and Bauke Mollema set to target a win here, and as it seems obvious both are in great form and are big fans of this circuit. They are one of the team that come with a very strong team, but aren't the only one, Ineos for example bring a team with a lot of riders also in great form, Gianni Moscon and Carlos Rodriguez as outsiders, Egan Bernal as a climber of election and Michal Kwiatkowski who was in great form last month and is one of the most suited riders for a circuit like this.
Furthermore Groupama and Bahrain also bring in very strong teams, Groupama surely are here to work for Valentin Madouas who is the type of punchy climber who can thrive in these short climbs, Thibaut Pinot being here will also set the tone for what is sure to be an agressive team that will look to blast the race with different cards, Bahrain will too but with a squad with much less racing, Sonny Colbrelli could on his best day be a contender and the team may protect him, however with the likes of Mikel Landa and Pello Bilbao as climbers, the latter likes these kind of roads, and also Matej Mohoric who can be one of the biggest jokers having a big variety of specialists alongside him and a technical descent that will be ridden several times. Adding to that, Arkea is coming with a dangerous duo of Nairo Quintana and Diego Rosa, and Cofidis brings in Jesus Herrada will be one to watch, albeit obviously with a team of lesser level than those previously mentioned.
The Puncheurs
The climbs are short though, and whilst the climbers may have an edge if the race is continuously hard and have the pressure to do so, a lot of riders may stay on the wheel and have the legs for the decisive moves, often also having a strong sprint. Those include Deceuninck who bring in Andrea Bagioli, who just won the Royal Bernard Drome Classic, as their leader and a very strong puncheur, with a team of riders of the same ability which is finalized also by Omloop Het Nieuwsblad winner Davide Ballerini who is an interesting addition to the lineup, surely he wouldn't come here if he didn't have ambitions, and although he can climb very well for a sprinter the question is if this is too much for him. Nonetheless, lot of explosive riders will be eyeing out a result like AG2R's Clément Champoussin, one of the riders currently on a big rise in quality, the team also has Andrea Vendrame and Clément Venturini who have a very good sprint but can also climb quite well, Astana bring in Fabio Felline who has finished on the podium in the past just like last year's runner-up Biniam Ghirmay, Simone Velasco will lead Gazprom and is the 2019 edition winner, Intermarche will have some cards to play but Loic Vliegen should be the leader, joined by Aimé de Gendt who is today racing Le Samyn, Astana bring a very secondary team lead by Fabio Felline who at times is capable of surprising and finds here a very suited classic, and finally Giovanni Visconti will be leading his new team, Bardiani.
Prediction Time
⭐ V.Nibali, Brambilla, Colbrelli, Landa, Mohoric, Madouas, Pinot, Ballerini, Champoussin, Quintana, Rosa
Michal Kwiatkowski is my call to win. He rode very well in Bessèges, he ended up not being able to contest the win due to an ill-timed crash, but a rider like him, riding the way he is, it's just a matter of time before he gets a win, and tomorrow may be it, seeing how strong his team is and how well the route suits him.
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