I was a rough day of racing in Poland and it finished in quite an unexpected way, after it started off brutaly with Thomas de Gendt and Jakob Fuglsang going on the attack very early onto the stage, although it didn't succeed it caused havoc in the peloton and then the damage throughout the day was costly for the sprinters in that final ascent to the line. Although several sprinters were there the final drag was just too long, Richard Carapaz surprised with an early sprint and god damn did he nail it! He flew over to the line taking a massive win and jumping to the yellow jersey, holding on a strong sprint by Diego Ulissi and Rudy Molard. Unrelated to the racing, I would like to add today there's been good news regarding Fabio Jakobsen's condition, I feel like it's important to aknowledge the improvements that have been happening in these last 24 hous.
Positive: Carapaz showing great form, great punch, and well I struggle to see anyone can take the jersey from him as he's a very strong climber. Ulissi and Molard got some good seconds that can be valuable for the GC.
Negative: Daryl Impey was one of the big guns for the GC but clearly had an off-day, no longer a GC contender.
The Route
The queen stage is the classic finish in Bukowina, a very tough circuit over the day in the yearly travel through the south Polish hills. It's a very explosive stage with a lot of steep climbs involved and a lot of roller coaster roads.
Finally that last sequence of climbs is set to have the decisive attacks, with the Sciana climb having some brutal gradients summiting at 13.5Km away from the finish, a small hilltop right after and the final summit finish taking in the final 3.4Km having some rough gradients in the beginning and easing out to the end, where the winner of the race will surely be decided.
The final climb to Bukovina isn't overly hard however there's stil lsome rough ramps and space for gaps to show. Normally the big moves come beforehand, but the gaps are so small that a single second can be decisive, and many riders may be thinking of tiny gaps and bonifications.
The Weather
There's normal lowish temperatures and a slight breeze from the east, but nothing important to see here trust me.
The Favourites
This is set to be quite a stage because on the start of the race you had Remco Evenepoel and Max Schachmann marked as the main favourites and let's face it, if they have the legs they will attack tomorrow no doubt. Deceuninck showed themselves in control today so Remco is for sure on the spot, but decided to wait until tomorrow and Bora are somewhat similar, not only will you have Max Schachmann on the hunt but also Rafal Majka and Patrick Konrad who can do really well also, depth can really make a big difference for some teams and Bora have some advantage on that field.
UAE with Diego Ulissi, 2nd in the overall and Rui Costa will for sure also be on the lookout and as for team depth there's some more riders to consider and I would keep a close eye on Jumbo Visma, both their leaders still there in the fight and seeing how Jonas Vingegaard raced last year he is someone who in my eye could surprise and then Tobias Foss has also finished very well today, as a climber and a massive talent in development aswell he will for sure also do well tomorrow. Also consider the runner-up of last year Jay Hindley, Sunweb finished with 4 riders in the main group today and that's a good display of power, Wilco Kelderman finished 5th and he's looking sharp and if there's anyone I can cheer for it's the Dutchman, also from the German team don't forget Chris Hamilton, he's good in those short steep climbs we'll be seeing.
Then returning for world-class level I cannot possibly ignore Jakob Fuglsang, he showed how excited he was today and despite that unsuccessful move he still finished 4th in the sprint, and remember he isn't exactly a rider with a good sprint so that means a lot and he's got Ion Izagirre with him. On the other side see Mitchelton, Esteban Chaves is always one who we can't ever predict to win big or loose big, he's not consistent but he's strong and on form, the climbs aren't long and are steep it's his style, also Simon Yates is an undeniable talent for a race of opportunity, he's won this finish two years ago and he's the same as Chaves, if he's on form he's mega strong but at the same time I'm ready for a low-level performance (although... I'm rooting for a beastly one).
Consider Rudy Molard a strong rider to take a win, but he's got a team that doesn't fit the level of the ones previously mentioned, there's CCC with Simon Gechke and Ilnur Zakarin still in there, aswell as Attila Valter who's becoming one of my favourite underated riders, I don't consider him a favourite but I wanna see what he's capable of.
Oh and... Don't forget Thomas de Gendt! And of course his bff Tim Wellens who knows how to win in Poland and should be excited to give it a go tomorrow.
Prediction Time
⭐ Chaves, Konrad, I.Izagirre, Vingegaard, Molard, Ulissi, Kelderman, Geschke, Wellens, de Gendt
I'm gonna go with big Max. This is all going to be so tight, Carapaz is I think impossible to gap on the base of power but he can always be caught by surprise, and everyone will be looking to dethrone him and not others, Bora have the numbers and they'll take advantage of it and although I think Carapaz may handle all the attacks Schachmann has a very strong sprint between the main contenders.
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