The Tour of Pologne has moved on from it's dreadful opening stage into what was a magnificent win from the world champion, in what was a hard and very fast finale Trek absolutely nailed the leadout which was surprisingly for Mads Pedersen, who launched his sprint and took advantage of a mess-up in Bora's leadout to take his first win in the rainbow stripes and is the new leader of the race, Pascal Ackermann and Davide Ballerini completed the podium.
Positive: Pedersen with a big win and Trek gets a 10/10 leadout grade, Ballerini and also Albert Torres with great results.
Negative: Ackermann didn't have the legs to beat Pedersen, but Bora could've definetely done better there, they left everything too late. Rohan Dennis lost a lot of time and isn't a GC candidate anymore.
The Route
Stage 3 is a familiar sight in the Poland in a stage finish in Bielsko Biala after a very tricky and hilly stage. The stage is 198 Kilometers long with a constant up and down throughout the day with the climbs of Wielka Puszcza and Prgebizek to set things up, shed out the sprinters and perhaps put in a big hurt inbetween the climbers aswell depending on how the race goes. There's around 45Km and 1200m+ of climbing more than last year's stage that had this similar finish, so definetely a harder stage, and with the reduced number of racing days there could be more agressive racing.
This is the main climb the riders will climb twice before the circuit, not too steep, not too long, but it is enough for a lot of damage and attacks if there's the intention to blow up the race. The final summit comes with 39.5Km to go.
After that there will be a stage finishing in a 4-lap circuit featuring a slight gradient all the way to the line, with over 2Km at an average of 4% to make it a tough finish for everyone.
The Weather
Some high temperatures and a slight eastern breeze. Won't make much impact, but will mean a tailwind throughout the final circuit's uphill.
The Favourites
It's a really interesting stage, I reckon there can be some agresive racing because this is one of the two stages that will make a difference for the overall, however at the same time some of the GC riders will want to save themselves for the queen stage in two days. BUT, then there are also bonifications that can be absolutely vital. So as you see, there's so many variables that you can't really predict what will happen, it can go either ways.
There's some riders who aren't necessarily targeting the GC but are big candidates for tomorrow. Well I'll make the exception of Patrick Bevin, it's a perfect format for him, however it depends on his form, because on top form he can climb as well as almost all beside him and packs a strong sprint, specially in these uphill finishes. There's some more names and Jasper Stuyven is one of them, Mads Pedersen maybe with yellow on his shoulders can also try although he does usually struggle in the climbs, there's last year's winner on this finish Luka Mezgec, there's more climbing this year but he knows this finish very well and you know it suits him very well. Finally Ryan Gibbons of NTT has been looking good too and he likes his fair share of climbing before the sprints.
As for the puncheurs side it's who I expect to see the stage being fought between, they would arise from a hard race which is for sure going to happen even if there are no big attacks, the final circuit will create further attrition. Mitchelton have some GC hopes, they've got Mezgec who could fight for the stage, and then they have Daryl Impey who can realistically do both, he's got a snappy sprint and could very well be waiting for the end to make a difference. There's UAE with both Rui Costa and Diego Ulissi who I reckon can make for a very powerful duo, both of them usually start the season in good form and they like these uphill finishes, the GC is on their plans aswell which can have some more motivation. Also there's Tim Wellens, although it won't be raining he's still a decent candidate for the win, he's got a good sprint but also balls of steel and with his capacity of going off solo he can make a difference in several ways.
Then there's finally the two men I've rated for a GC 1-2 who are firstly for obvious reasons Remco Evenepoel, now luckily for his competitors he doesn't pack a sprint, however he's a very agressive rider in great form and with a massive engine and I reckon he may attempt a surprise move inside the final circuit, not only because he can legitimately take time and a win from there but also becacuse he can rely on Mattia Cattaneo for a sprint if needed. And there's Max Schachmann who also packs a strong sprint, and seeing how Majka and Konrad will fancy the following stage Schachmann may give it a shot to take the win, he's highly powerful and I know my words somewhat underate his true quality here, but he can also win in several different ways.
Prediction Time
⭐ Stuyven, Gibbons, Costa, Cattaneo, de Gendt
I'm going with the big man from South Africa. He can climb and he can sprint, with a new contract signed this week he'll surely be motivated and Mitchelton have riders for all scenarios for tomorrow.
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