A brutal hilltop finish was expected and delivered. The main favourite too delivered, after a very hard run-up to the final climb plenty of riders were suffocated when the Canadian made his move but in his style he dislodged everyone from his wheel one by one and took an impressive win on the Mur, finishing in front of Bauke Mollema and Jonathan Narvaez also taking the lead of the race.
Positive: Woods confirmed his strong finish of yesterday and rode a brutal climb today, Narvaez came back from a disapointing performance yesterday, Vuillermoz and Livyns two nice surprises in the Top10.
Negative: Geraint Thomas seemed to have become a co-leader after yesterday but today burnt himself for his teammates, unsure why they have decided to do so.
The Route
Queen stage. Don't hate me, but the fact Paris-Nice haven't done something like this for the final stage is quite absurd. This is how you do a mountain stage where attacks and raids can succeed, it's a full day of climbing. Surprisingly not the day with the most ascent meters in this race but there's an extra 3500 on the menu, however most of these come in the form of real climbs, some of the most famous in the Nice area.
After a rough uphill start in Blausasc including a categorized and some uncategorized climbs (the Col Saint-Roch is quite a good launchpad for those looking to put pressure in the race), the Col de Braus is the first +10Km climb of the day, quite consistent, summits with 70Km to go, before it there's a descent with no flat secntion, afterwards there's exactly the same, perfect for who wants to go full-fas.
Yeah the image isn't perfect but that's what I have to work with now, you understand it perfectly. 11.2Km at 6.9% is what the riders will face, this is the famous climb where usually you'd read Lance Armstrong, Chris Froome, and many other pros that live in the Nice area set climb records. Curiously enough it is rarely seen in pro racing, but it's a proper climb! It's constant only with a little restbite with a few kilometers to the summit, however the constant 6-8% gradients are more than enough to blow up the race, specially after such a hard stage. This climb summits with 25Km to go and should be a ~29-minute effort for the fastest riders.
After the climb there is the descent of the very commonly used (on the opposite direction) Côte du Peille, a very technical descent it will be and very dangerous if the weather turns dark. Even after that there's a small 1.1Km ramp at 7.4% with 11.5Km to go, and a 2.5Km hill at 4.7% average that summits with a mere 6.5Km to go (this combination is incredibly similar to the GP La Marseillaise finale). After that, sooth sailing, a couple hairpins and then several fast straightforward kilometers into the finish.
The Weather
There will be significant wind tomorrow, normally above 20Km/h with gusts up to 50Km/h from the east. The stage will be fully in the mountains, in many areas wind won't be felt, in others it'll be very exposed, there should generally be a tailwind in the start of the stage and in the Col de la Madone.
The Favourites
This a proper mountain stage I just can't stop saying that, I love the route. I will firstly mention the little possibility of a breakaway win because the winding descents, favourable wind at important times and just constant climbing suits for a group going strong all day long, I doubt Israel will be working hard to smash the peloton, that should come from Ineos mainly. Riders like Gorka Izagirre, Stephane Rossetto and Dorian Godon all lost time today after a strong stage yesterday, they can be part of the breakaway and have a lot of quality, plenty others could be mentioned but 2 days of racing aren't enough to tell us how strong the peloton is. Surprise attacks or moves throughout the day can definitely succeed, however most of the GC riders should be looking towards the final climb to set the difference.
There I would expect offensive racing from Ineos, Pavel Sivakov and Tao Geoghegan Hart are here and the Russian is as expected their main card (although the team is going with less cards than expected for this final stage), they will surely have support I would say from Astana who will have Jakob Fuglsang racing on home roads, despite not having shown very promising results so far, Groupama who have strenght in numbers and for sure they will try to destroy the race, seize the amount of strong contenders they've got, David Gaudu should wait for the final climb I reckon, but from Thibaut Pinot, Valentin Madouas and Rudy Molard I expect agressive racing, specially as Armirail will also be an important piece in agressive racing.
Then you've got some riders who shouldn't have thoughts of making moves from far but will likely try something on the final climb if they feel good, Nairo Quintana is so impressive after having had 2 months off after a double knee surgery and just coming back to the bike during new year, I didn't personally put expectations on his performance but he's finished well in the front groups so far and at a point I start to believe he can actually do something tomorrow. He, Ben O'Connor who's riding at a very high level and the Trek riders, Bauke Mollema specially but also Giulio Ciccone, should be those that'll wait but will surely have an attacking mindset.
Michael Woods is an explosive climber but he alongside Dan Martin will likely try to make the race as conservative as possible, with no bonifications he literally just has to sit in the wheels to take home the overall. It'll be a tough challenge but he can do it, any alliances should be of circumstance though as there aren't many that are satisfied with their GC place, also as a far from strong descender he will have a tough time for sure.
Prediction Time
⭐ Woods, D.Martin, Quintana, Madouas, O'Connor
There are a lot of local riders, this is a stage that several know the roads very very well. Still it's the legs that will count the most, think Madone will be pushed to the maximum, Pavel Sivakov is my choice, he's a very good climber and the way Ineos are riding seems to be for him, he's my pre-race choice and I keep believing that.
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