Albeit not broadcasted the stage was ridden as expected, with less agression perhaps as no big attacks happened on the final climb, a large group went into the final kilometer and the sprint was always gonna happen, however Trek with a brilliant move in the final hundred meters had Bauke Mollema fly off the front, holding off the furious sprint behind leg by Greg van Avermaet and Valentin Madouas.
Positive: Trek with a great stage, no bonifications but Mollema put himself in a good position as he is now ahead of all his oponents, Groupama had 4 riders in the Top10.
Negative: Hart, Costa, Meurisse, Pidcock, some riders that I expected to see in the front today but, far far from it.
The Route
3000 meters of climbing. It feels like a stretch for a stage with no big climb but it's exactly what the riders will face tomorrow, as they keep riding through the rolling roads of the Alpes Maritimes. Like today, the day starts off with a little ramp in Fayence and stays on a little roller-coaster throughout the day, with a long climb (yet split to sections) to the Col de Mons summiting with 80.5Km to go, before going down and making a little loop around Fayence with a first passage through the finish with 33Km to go.
The riders will then return and finish on the famous Mur de Fayence, it's a short climb just 1.2Km long but the average gradient is 10% and the maximum ramps are quite higher, reaching 20% near the finish, a finish for those who are explosive. There's a very tight switchback with around 50 meters to go, not exactly the safest finish, but the brutal gradients that come in beforehand should split everything quite well.
The Weather
There's a modern breeze from southeast, shouldn't make much of a difference throughout the stage, same for the climb, however there will be a tailwind leading up to the final climb which will make it a really fast and possibly dangerous aproach to the climb.
The Favourites
This is a sharp finish, rarely do we see such steep gradients close to the finish. It's one for the puncheurs, that doesn't mean the climbers won't be in contention for the win though specially as some, including leader Bauke Mollema is someone who adapts very well to these short efforts. Trek is in a good position, not only Mollema but Giulio Ciccone is also looking really good, not someone who I would consider for such a finish until Provence but he is having a very good explosive power. Israel have Michael Woods who finished 4th today and also Daniel Martin in for tomorrow, both of them love these brutal gradients and it's a finish that surely motivated them to come to France, and also Groupama is in a good place, David Gaudu is someone who also loves a steep sharp finish like this, Valentin Madouas looked terrific today, Rudy Molard is a local and is in form and Thibaut Pinot, despite claims of modest form, finished today in the Top10 alongside his 3 teammates. These should be the main favourites, Ineos have got Narvaez probably has their best card, Hart lost time today, Thomas and Sivakov will prefer the final stage much more, B&B also have some really good cards to play in Quentin Pacher and Jonathan Hivert who look in good form, are quite good wildcards for a finale like this (although they may struggle more for positioning).
Greg van Avermaet is also a dangerous card, I argue that this isn't a finale that's perfectly suited for him as 20% gradients are not very friendly for a 74Kg rider but he had a big day on the bike before today, he is treating the race like training and he almost won today, so honestly I wouldn't count him out. Magnus Cort Nielsen is a rider in a similar profile, he finished in the main group today so he is also a good name for tomorrow, Christophe Laporte is obviously a big outsider but seeing how well he's been riding in the last weeks he is perhaps the biggest joker for the stage. Some more riders will be there in front aswell, GC is in play so obviously everyone will go all-out, Jakob Fuglsang is a strong contender for tomorrow and Astana have a very strong team to position him to the base, Jesus Herrada will be another card, alongside Simon Geschke they could put themselves there in the middle. Some more jokers can be added into the list can be added, Jelle Vanendert of Bingoal loves a finale like this similar to the Mur de Huy and Simon Clarke who's finished in the front group today is also a lover of short explosive finishes.
Prediction Time
⭐ Nielsen, Laporte, Fuglsang, Herrada, Molard, Pinot, Hivert
Goat track expert! He finished 4th today he's looking sharp, tomorrow is a finish suited well for him he's one of the strongest guys who's ever ridden a small chainring. Both him and Martin have a brilliant opportunity to take an opening win, and although the competition is very strong I am tilting to the Israel guys.
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